New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 536 - 486

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

I shall be known soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WS quite the drama or dont post here at all

you are the one antagonizing people, oh and for your little curse word you put there in that last post, I hope they give you a permanent ban.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
533. JLPR
Quoting Hurricane009:
I wonder what Dmax will do to it??


yes is it keeps this up 96L will be TD 7 really soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherStudent:


You asked for it, you bastard, admin notification, here I come. Unbelivable, I tell ya, I come in here in peace this afternoon, yet this ''OLD MAN'' insists on pushing my buttons for no apparent motive. Anyways, moving on. :)


Flagged.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
529. JLPR
looking really nice


plus d-min is not weakening it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dak and Stoopid make excellent points...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:

The GOM looks like it's on fire.


I agree with u
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just because WS will never see that kind of money, doesn't mean the rest of us won't or aren't already. What I make or do is none of your business WS, but I do very well, thank you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
he oughta try Grammar Check, as well...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


Does anyone know what this moron is talking about?


Not a bit. One reason I DON'T have him on ignore yet is the occasional humor factor. How's Labor Day treatin' ya Press?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Presslord - Don't engage in a battle of wits with WS, don't you realize you are dealing with an unarmed opponent...

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10809
Frying Pan Shoals Buoy 41013... pressure continues to drop. Currently 29.84 - down .07 mb since 12:50 pm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


Does anyone know what this moron is talking about?

Honestly I think he is trying to be overly cordial to try and get someone else suspended. In other words I think he's trying to bait some of the bloggers on here.
And the worst part is he's using spell check now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
AGXX40 KNHC 071638
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 PM EDT MON SEP 07 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK E-W TROUGH OVER THE NW COASTAL PLAINS WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS NNE TO SSW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
WATERS. THE RESULT IS LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL ZONES. A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE NW REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS FRI. EXPECT THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG THE NW
YUCATAN COAST. INTENSE CONVECTION ENHANCED OVER THE SW GULF HAS
INDUCED A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND ITS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
A FEW DAYS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING
ALONG THE TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
ELY TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND ELY 10-15 KT. WEAKENING LOW PRES AT 17N51W IS STILL EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN INTO A OPEN TROPICAL WAVE TONIGHT WITH THE WAVE
ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN LATE TUE NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER LOW PRES IN THE FAR E ATLC IS
EXPECTED TO RECURVE NW ALONG 34W-35W WED AND THU.

SW N ATLC...
A FEW WEAK TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THE AREA. ONE TROUGH
EXTENDING N-S ALONG 79W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E TO ALONG 77W WED
AND THU AND DISSIPATE BY FRI. AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY W THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT THROUGH WED. AS THE TROUGHS MOVE W OF
AREA THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO PSN FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL WITH
SE-S 10-15 KT FLOW N OF 25N AND E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS S OF 25N.

WARNINGS
ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
post 513...so...again...How do you know what I make?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Gulf Sat.

Gulf

The GOM looks like it's on fire!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceman55:
gfs take 96L back to west ???? help me out
Yes in that run it takes it back west
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
sorry y'all...I just violated my new rule against quoting trolls...please forgive...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Multiplatform, satellite winds are up to 28 knots
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Actually, Mike and I together make more than double Avila's salary. We have a good life.


Wow, the progression of topics around here is amazing. The salary I make as an E-3 in the navy isn't that much, but the benefits and low overhead more than make up for it. I'm not sure what Avila makes, but the $2.5 million figure sounds like worth to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 0 120N 219W 25
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 12 121N 245W 35
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 24 122N 268W 40
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 36 129N 290W 45
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 48 137N 310W 55
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 48 137N 310W 55
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 72 163N 335W 55
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 72 163N 335W 55
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 96 185N 345W 50
AL 96 2009090712 03 OFCL 120 205N 345W 45
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
Yes I'm sensing an upgrade very soon

AL, 96, 2009090718, , BEST, 0, 124N, 239W, 30, 1005


With those numbers, I'm expecting to see a renumbering issued very soon.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Right now, my estimate is closer to the MET than the SAB. Would say a 2.0 should be about right for Invest 96L right now given the nice curved band pattern.


right on
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting WeatherStudent:
One can only dream, I guess.....sigh. PressLord, the proof is inside of the fiscal pudding, dig it up.


Dig WHAT up?!?!?! I know what I make...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


Yea, I'm actually performing it but mines seem closer to the SAB.

Model Expected Output (MET) also agrees with a cyclone near 2.0


Right now, my estimate is closer to the MET than the SAB. Would say a 2.0 should be about right for Invest 96L right now given the nice curved band pattern.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
WS - Speak for yourself... Woops. nevermind.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10809
Well im out for a little while guys, take care!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Yeah, model stuff just changed to 35mph.

Seems pretty prime for TD7. Still 96L for the moment...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A curve band of 0.40 would justify a DT# of 2.5 but since model expected T# is nearer to 2.0, considering other rules and constraints, the final T# is kept at 2.0/30/1004

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
heres the link for the GOMEX looks more interesting then 96L and the Wind-Shear on the GOMEX shows by Wednesday to die down and the SST'S are promising but the thing I see with it is alot of circulation its going to be fun to watch but now for the 96L I like the prediction of a Frances but Winter is what I am all about I live up in the Pac-NW

GOMEX-SAT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Dang, y'all all in here this afternoon discussing the salary ranges of the NHC personnel. Moral of the story, folks, any given one of the forcasters that works at the NHC clearly makes more money then all of us in here this afternoon. Predominantly speaking here, that would be because of their academic credentials. Now there's something to think about and to envy. Cheers, :).


And....How, exactly, do you know how much I...or anyone else here...makes?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes I'm sensing an upgrade very soon

AL, 96, 2009090718, , BEST, 0, 124N, 239W, 30, 1005
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
IF Avila answers, will you post it?

And Presslord is correct, all government employees salaries are public record, so you could just file a public records request to find out.


yeah, I definitely will. I doubt he will answer today. It is labor day
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360

Viewing: 536 - 486

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron