New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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You say camel
I say gecko
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just a little WEATHER STUDENT that thinks he knows it all,he probably hasnt even been in a hurricane!!!ha!!and he will be an old man to sooner than he thinks.
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noted we all so have a new name storm in the E pac from TD 15E
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Quoting presslord:
ah...it's "camel"...not "camal"...."camel"..."


*sigh* come on WS, it's simple spelling...
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
Quoting IKE:
If everyone will put him on ignore, he'll have no one to talk to. Er...cuss to.

Who?
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Yes we do, all. Thank God it'll be a fish, however.



you cant call it a fish storm be come there are fishing ships out there has well
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It appears WS is the alter ego of someone who likes drama and only insist on getting persons ban with him. The respect I have for him is dwindling away.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
574. IKE
Quoting iceman55:
IKE hey


Afternoon.
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ah...it's "camel"...not "camal"...."camel"..."
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570. IKE
Quoting presslord:
I don't mind the "B" word so much...in fact, I'm kinda used to it...but the "OLD MAN" thing really stings...


That's pathetic to use that language on here.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
we now have TD 7


000
WHXX01 KWBC 071918
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1918 UTC MON SEP 7 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN (AL072009) 20090907 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090907 1800 090908 0600 090908 1800 090909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 23.9W 13.0N 26.8W 13.7N 30.3W 14.1N 34.0W
BAMD 12.4N 23.9W 12.9N 26.5W 13.7N 28.9W 14.7N 31.1W
BAMM 12.4N 23.9W 13.0N 26.5W 13.8N 29.2W 14.7N 31.9W
LBAR 12.4N 23.9W 12.8N 26.5W 13.6N 29.3W 14.4N 31.9W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090909 1800 090910 1800 090911 1800 090912 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 37.3W 14.3N 40.2W 13.3N 38.6W 12.0N 36.1W
BAMD 15.9N 33.2W 19.2N 35.9W 22.4N 35.8W 24.6N 36.0W
BAMM 15.6N 34.4W 17.6N 37.3W 18.8N 37.4W 19.6N 37.2W
LBAR 15.4N 34.3W 17.9N 37.0W 22.5N 37.5W 26.4N 36.9W
SHIP 55KTS 63KTS 58KTS 48KTS
DSHP 55KTS 63KTS 58KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 23.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 20.9W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 17.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


About time! Both the location and intensity seem good right now. When a tropical depression forms, I favor the BAMM track since it pretty much averages the BAMS and BAMD tracks and intensity. So, my preferred track will be the BAMM for right now.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5157


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
WS quite the drama or dont post here at all

you are the one antagonizing people, oh and for your little curse word you put there in that last post, I hope they give you a permanent ban.
yeah I just noticed this [weatherstudent]and he does seem to have quite a smart A## mouth and also thinks he is the director of the N.H.C ha ha
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563. IKE
If everyone will put him on ignore, he'll have no one to talk to. Er...cuss to.
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I don't mind the "B" word so much...in fact, I'm kinda used to it...but the "OLD MAN" thing really stings...
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invest_RENUMBER_al962009_al072009.ren
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558. IKE
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Lighten up dude.


He'll be banned again. Not sure why WU allows him to post at all. Ever.
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NOGAPS shows convection in SW GOMEX going into Mexico and wave moving thru FL straits ending up in eastern panhandle
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We have TD 7

invest_RENUMBER_al962009_al072009.ren
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
553. IKE
12Z ECMWF...
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we now have TD 7


000
WHXX01 KWBC 071918
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1918 UTC MON SEP 7 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN (AL072009) 20090907 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090907 1800 090908 0600 090908 1800 090909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 23.9W 13.0N 26.8W 13.7N 30.3W 14.1N 34.0W
BAMD 12.4N 23.9W 12.9N 26.5W 13.7N 28.9W 14.7N 31.1W
BAMM 12.4N 23.9W 13.0N 26.5W 13.8N 29.2W 14.7N 31.9W
LBAR 12.4N 23.9W 12.8N 26.5W 13.6N 29.3W 14.4N 31.9W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090909 1800 090910 1800 090911 1800 090912 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 37.3W 14.3N 40.2W 13.3N 38.6W 12.0N 36.1W
BAMD 15.9N 33.2W 19.2N 35.9W 22.4N 35.8W 24.6N 36.0W
BAMM 15.6N 34.4W 17.6N 37.3W 18.8N 37.4W 19.6N 37.2W
LBAR 15.4N 34.3W 17.9N 37.0W 22.5N 37.5W 26.4N 36.9W
SHIP 55KTS 63KTS 58KTS 48KTS
DSHP 55KTS 63KTS 58KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 23.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 20.9W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 17.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


You asked for it, you bastard, admin notification, here I come. Unbelivable, I tell ya, I come in here in peace this afternoon, yet this ''OLD MAN'' insists on pushing my buttons for no apparent motive. Anyways, moving on. :)


Lighten up dude.
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JLPR,

the 00Z had a hurricane hitting the Leewards on September 20 2009, the anniversary of Georges. Also this month has the same calender date as September 1998 with the night of 20 September the faithful Sunday night that Georges struck.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Looks like 96L should be TD 7 at 5 p.m. with a minimum pressure of 1005mb, max winds 35mph. 5 day track looks to take a WNW, then NW progression, followed by a shift to the WNW toward the end of the forecast. Beyond that... anyone's guess. TD 7 could be Fred by early tomorrow.
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Quoting presslord:
at least he spelled the name he called me correctly...


lol
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Quoting presslord:
post 513...so...again...How do you know what I make?


You make rope.
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Image centered at Latitude= 17.34° N Longitude= 52.47° W





Tropical wave "Exposed" trying to make it
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
at least he spelled the name he called me correctly...
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I shall be known soon.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.