New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Taz?




I know thats not the LLC
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Ameister...we're all weather weenies...extreme nature of most any sort is pretty much fair game...especially when the tropics are kinda quiet...
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07L at least has a much lower pressure then our other ts Erika and Danny of this year signifying we have a stronger low level circulation and not competing surface lows.
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Quoting hurristat:


So this means that the NHC decided?


we kinda go through this every time a system is upgraded or named. Whenever an invest file is renumber, advisories will be start. There's a 100% chance that the NHC will begin advisories on TD 7 in the next hr.

invest_RENUMBER_al962009_al072009.ren
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting iceman55:
futuremet u for really ???


Yes he did, and I am not the only person he did that to.
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What time does Rutgers play?
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Quoting futuremet:
Put WS on ignore!

This kid sent me hate mails on youtube. Don't quote him
I wouldn't worry about him too much. You seem to have more knowledge in your little finger than he has in his entire body. His sole purpose on here seems to be to antagonize whoever takes the bait. 96L/TD7 looking very good. Hope it follows the forecast and stays out to sea. Most folks have been extremely blessed so far this year.
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Quoting Ameister12:

Good.
I thought this topic was only about the tropics.


well, imo its on topic.. lol
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting hurristat:


Link?


Link
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Quoting tornadodude:


it is on topic, its weather

Good.
I thought this topic was only about the tropics.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4904
Quoting Weather456:


Look at the name stamp

07LSEVEN.30kts-1005mb-124N-239W



So this means that the NHC decided?
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Quoting Ameister12:
Thunderstorms are coming and is most likely going to cancel our Labor Day cook out.


Note: Sorry if this is off topic.


it is on topic, its weather
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Thunderstorms are coming and are most likely going to cancel our Labor Day cook out.


Note: Sorry if this is off topic.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4904
Quoting hurristat:


Link?


Look at the name stamp

07LSEVEN.30kts-1005mb-124N-239W

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Put WS on ignore!

This kid sent me hate mails on youtube. Don't quote him
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
If I could read your thoughts, I would be a rich man. Or, at least I would make more than Avila.


..........LOL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
18Z Statistical Model Runs


18Z Early Dynamical Model Runs
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
Quoting Ameister12:

96L is now 07L.


Link?
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Is someone reading my thoughts? lol


I like drama, Sci-Fi, Action, .....etc....
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Is someone reading my thoughts? lol
If I could read your thoughts, I would be a rich man. Or, at least I would make more than Avila.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Is someone reading my thoughts? lol


I didn't went as far as saying, he's the alter ego of an existing member here. But I have no proof so.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
608. IKE
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Didn't know, thanks for the heads up. Is he JFV?


Yes.
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Quoting hurristat:
What do you guys think the percentage of us having 7L (either TD 7 or Fred) at 5 is?

96L is now 07L.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4904
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


LINDA, EP, E, , , , , 15, 2009, TS



yup
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Quoting hurristat:
What do you guys think the percentage of us having 7L (either TD 7 or Fred) at 5 is?


98.7895%. Exactly.
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Finally, TD 7.

IMO, it might become a TS by tommorow. I give it a 80% chance of becoming a TS tommorow.

PS, To Weatherstudent:

When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
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Quoting hurristat:
What do you guys think the percentage of us having 7L (either TD 7 or Fred) at 5 is?


I think we have 7 already
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Quoting hurristat:
What do you guys think the percentage of us having 7L (either TD 7 or Fred) at 5 is?


100%, all products are being run as such
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Quoting Weather456:
It appears WS is the alter ego of someone who likes drama and only insist on getting persons ban with him. The respect I have for him is dwindling away.


Is someone reading my thoughts? lol
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5163
Fish
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Quoting Ameister12:
Hello, TD 2.


*Waves* Hello!!
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Quoting Ameister12:
Hello, TD 2.


thats TD 7
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What do you guys think the percentage of us having 7L (either TD 7 or Fred) at 5 is?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The outflow is quite impressive for a premature tropical cyclone

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Tazmanian:
noted we all so have a new name storm in the E pac from TD 15E


LINDA, EP, E, , , , , 15, 2009, TS
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Quoting IKE:


He'll be banned again. Not sure why WU allows him to post at all. Ever.


Didn't know, thanks for the heads up. Is he JFV?
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Hello, TD 7.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4904
Quoting Tazmanian:
noted we all so have a new name storm in the E pac from TD 15E


EP, 15, 2009090718, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1267W, 45, 1000, TS,

Yes we have LINDA
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Hey Orca weather been bad there also I live up by Chinook Pass im ready for another record breaker year for snow got a foot and a half of snow up around 6000ft starting early
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AMEN brother!!!
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Who has WeatherStudent on ignore???


I don't it makes for interesting reading at times and now I to change my major to psychiatry at FIU.
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Quoting aquak9:
You say camel
I say gecko


This kinda thing is EXACTLY why I love you...
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You say camel
I say gecko
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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