New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


you must not have been paying attention, 456 nailed it from the beginning. While everyone yelled fish, he said he thought it was going to the caribbean


not everyone...
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Quoting IKE:


I said a 25-30% chance of a GOM storm this morning. I'll up those odds to 35-40% chance. Not 100% sold on the system being in the extreme western GOM. Latest NOGAPS has trended west though with a vorticity making landfall near Mobile,AL.

12Z ECMWF.....is further east with a weaker low.

We'll find out as the week moves on.


What are you talking about? Nothing mentioned at all anywhere about any GOM activity AFAIK
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Quoting IKE:


The NOGAPS vorticity is weak as it crosses the coast. It'll take a few days to get ironed out on something spinning up...IF it happens.


Just to let you know I saw something this morning from that Mid-Level Blob in the SW GOM but then it showed something else coming thru or should I say Between Cuba and FL Keys.... so I'm confused for real now....

:0)
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933. IKE
Quoting hurricanehanna:

True - TX does need it....just no wind.


Looks like a good bet to bring some rains to Texas. I hope you get some without flooding or strong winds.
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@924, your also about to hit everyones ignore list if you haven't already.
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Quoting centex:
I didn't see anyone one of the most respected predict caribbean on Erika. So don't know what your talking about. In fact they all said not likely when asked. They could only talk about weakness which would pick up even a weak system, I never understood that.


you must not have been paying attention, 456 nailed it from the beginning. While everyone yelled fish, he said he thought it was going to the caribbean
Solid curve band is developing with TD 7 - Fred soon

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting IKE:


Hard to tell on the GFS for strength. Looks like a tropical storm.


ok,thanks. Will definitely keep an eye out.
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928. IKE
Quoting winter123:
GFS shows a stall near 20 north, but then instantly a second recurve. It's pretty sad when storms cant make it past 40w at the peak of the hurricane season. Develops and does the same thing with the next 3 waves too. season is a bust. NEXT


??????????????????????????????????????????????
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Quoting IKE:


LOL...people in Texas have been praying for rain. They may get their wish with Grace.





Looks like a SE Texas landfall with copious moisture over LA. too.

True - TX does need it....just no wind.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
@922. I'm not even going to bother quoting that, just to let you know your about to hit everyone and their mothers ignore list.
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925. IKE
Quoting TexasHurricane:


hmmmmmmm,ok. I'm about 10-15 minutes from LA border. What is the strength they are showing as of right now? thanks!


Hard to tell on the GFS for strength. Looks like a tropical storm.
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GFS shows a stall near 20 north, but then instantly a second recurve. It's pretty sad when storms cant make it past 40w at the peak of the hurricane season. Develops and does the same thing with the next 3 waves too. season is a bust. NEXT
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1802
923. IKE
Quoting taco2me61:


With all due respect but could you not use Mobile or anywhere in the Gulf Coast.... I think we have had enough for the next 10yrs.... and anyway Taz told us that the GOM would not have a storm this year....


The NOGAPS vorticity is weak as it crosses the coast. It'll take a few days to get ironed out on something spinning up...IF it happens.
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I can see it now....."Here lies poor old Fred...a great big trough slammed him in the head"......RIP Fred
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Quoting IKE:


LOL...people in Texas have been praying for rain. They may get their wish with Grace.





Looks like a SE Texas landfall with copious moisture over LA. too.


hmmmmmmm,ok. I'm about 10-15 minutes from LA border. What is the strength they are showing as of right now? thanks!
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
centex,

Do you relize Weather456 has nailed Bill, Danny, Erika and now TD 7. He also disagreed with the NHC and the models with Erika so my thinking is he knows what he's talking about. He is able to reason with the forecast models and current conditions to come up with some accurate forecasts so it's pointless what you just said.
I didn't see anyone one of the most respected predict caribbean on Erika. So don't know what your talking about. In fact they all said not likely when asked. They could only talk about weakness which would pick up even a weak system, I never understood that.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
Quoting Weather456:


I made a typo, I edited the post. I had Mexico in the back of my head.


Ah ok cool lol
as promised
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


um the 18Z GFS I see has a storm making landfall in texas in 1 week


I made a typo, I edited the post. I had Mexico in the back of my head for some reason.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
Models have been very inconsistent with GOM development,

the 18Z GFS shows a low developing over the Western GOM and moving into Mexico

the ECMWF was predicting that earlier but now has switched to the Eastern GOM, moving into the Florida Panhandle

they are trying to hint something but isnt sure of where, what and when.


A surface trof is expected to develop over the SE GOM in 3 days so the ECMWF continues to be more consistent and persistent then it might be on to something



um the 18Z GFS I see has a storm making landfall in texas in 1 week
Quoting IKE:


I said a 25-30% chance of a GOM storm this morning. I'll up those odds to 35-40% chance. Not 100% sold on the system being in the extreme western GOM. Latest NOGAPS has trended west though with a vorticity making landfall near Mobile,AL.

12Z ECMWF.....is further east with a weaker low.

We'll find out as the week moves on.


With all due respect but could you not use Mobile or anywhere in the Gulf Coast.... I think we have had enough for the next 10yrs.... and anyway Taz told us that the GOM would not have a storm this year....
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Models have been very inconsistent with GOM development,

the 18Z GFS shows a low developing over the Western GOM and moving into Texas

the ECMWF was predicting that earlier but now has switched to the Eastern GOM, moving into the Louisiana

they are trying to hint something but isn't sure of where, what and when. My thinking is the Central or Western Gulf when it comes to where.

meanwhile,

A surface trof is expected to develop over the SE GOM in 3 days so the ECMWF continues to be more consistent and persistent then it might be on to something

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
913. IKE
Quoting hurricanehanna:

ewe...not before dinner Ike! ;)


LOL...people in Texas have been praying for rain. They may get their wish with Grace.


Quoting TexasHurricane:


that storm is at the TX/LA border right? It is a little hard to tell. Course I do realize that all this can change...



Looks like a SE Texas landfall with copious moisture over LA. too.
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NHC = Official. Where the general, non-weather enthusiast public should go for information and base life/death decisions on.

Here - Say/do whatever you want. Discussion makes it interesting.
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WOW i did not no that the Pacific_hurricane_season of 2002 had 3 Cat 5 hurricanes in the E PAC in the same year


Kenna winds 165mph
Elida 160mph
Hernan 160mph
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909. IKE
Quoting iceman55:
IKE storm over la ???


I said a 25-30% chance of a GOM storm this morning. I'll up those odds to 35-40% chance. Not 100% sold on the system being in the extreme western GOM. Latest NOGAPS has trended west though with a vorticity making landfall near Mobile,AL.

12Z ECMWF.....is further east with a weaker low.

We'll find out as the week moves on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
centex,

Do you relize Weather456 has nailed Bill, Danny, Erika and now TD 7. He also disagreed with the NHC and the models with Erika so my thinking is he knows what he's talking about. He is able to reason with the forecast models and current conditions to come up with some accurate forecasts so it's pointless what you just said.


Respectfully.....nobody nailed Erika....she did not follow ANY forecasts.
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Quoting IKE:
18Z GFS @ 168 hours....



that storm is at the TX/LA border right? It is a little hard to tell. Course I do realize that all this can change...
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Funny even to suggest more W next 48 hours is treated with soooo much flack. When models so bad but all NHC has so they split difference and we are expected to believe. We have not learned anyting.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
Repost

I can see why the NHC is going with the LGEM, it seems to be the model that is verifying with 96L/TD 7 intensity thus far.


The HWRF continues to over do intensity this year for example:

Intensity errors from when 96L was initialize to 1800Z 7 September

HWRF - 22 knots
LGEM - 5 knots
SHIPS - 12 knots

In other words, when 96L was initialize, the HWRF had it 52 knots by 1800Z today, but it only reached 30 knots, so you have a forecast error of 22 knots


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting IKE:
18Z GFS @ 168 hours....


ewe...not before dinner Ike! ;)
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
900. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:


I posted a comment earlier today for you.

The 00Z GFS had a hurricane hitting the Leeward Islands on the 20 September 2009, around the exact time as Georges. Coincidently, September 2009 and 1998 has the same calender dates and days; as Georges hit Saint Kitts during the night of Sunday 20 September 1998.


yep that's a freaky scenario
if that were to happen that storm would be Georges twin :|
but I saw the latest one and the GFS seems to have another plan for that system

waiting for the 18Z run to finish
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899. IKE
18Z GFS @ 168 hours....

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Quoting centex:
Than why don't we post anything else? This has been said before, we should back off the NHC only post.


because the NHC is official

THATS WHY!!
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Dude you need to back off, you come in here and do this crap all the time. 456 is one of the most knowledgeable folks here. The NHC knows what they are doing.
Than why don't we post anything else? This has been said before, we should back off the NHC only post.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
Quoting centex:
I don't agree, they don't know NOW but know future. By Wed PM we will know if they missed forecast again. I guess you’re just NHC surrogate. We have several of those. You know they blew TD6.

That's the fun of spending 4-12 yrs in college, learning the ins/outs of how the atmosphere works, BUT their computer models and the meteorologists only have some of the clues!! When situations are "UNCERTAIN", so are THEIR forecasts!! I am not a meteorologist,I have loved the weather for 41 yrs and only GOD knows 100% of the time!! I would suggest everyone in the Atlantic Basin to keep an eye on Fred! If he moves N into the open Atlantic, fantastic; BUT if this storm DEFIES the models, like Danny and Erika, WATCH OUT!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
The problem is when the the current trough passes and the ridge rebuilds, how much will it force TD 7 back west. the ensembles are thinking, strong enough to send the feature SW, but I'm thinking wnw. the other weakness will pull 97L north once again.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Hi Fellowes,

I see Patrap has the NC disturbance nailed, radar shows definitive turning

Interesting to see the historical map and how almost none of the storms fit the current forecast for TD7, showcasing what a non-typical season this has been...



Altough most curve before reaching the Carib. mainly I think because they formed relatively north out of CV

And waiting for it to be 7 to watch miami at fl state :D
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All, Interesting GOM AOI possibly gearing up for development? A hint of a low level swirl now evident on visible satellite over the extreme southwestern BOC (very near the coast off Vera Cruz).
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Quoting centex:
I don't agree, they don't know NOW but know future. By Wed PM we will know if they missed forecast again. I guess you’re just NHC surrogate. We have several of those. You know they blew TD6.


Dude you need to back off, you come in here and do this crap all the time. 456 is one of the most knowledgeable folks here. The NHC knows what they are doing.
#889.

It's about there, still mostly showing the curve... probably the model difference is on when the weakness appears and when the B/A High shifts to the North.
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If this is reasonable good agreement, I'd hate to see what they think not in agreement is:

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Quoting Weather456:


dude, the NHC said the initial motion is uncertain not the forecast motion

THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14. THE
DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CUTS-OFF NEAR 27N40W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH THEREAFTER. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION
...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
I don't agree, they don't know NOW but know future. By Wed PM we will know if they missed forecast again. I guess you’re just NHC surrogate. We have several of those. You know they blew TD6.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
Quoting laflastormtracker:
Def he is fairly accurate and is a very smart man. He was discussing potential for development and looked serious this evening. I was thinking uh-oh, similar expressions I remember from last summer:(. i want BLUE skies ahead:)

I trust him more than others...I've never known him to over hype something.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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