New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1136 - 1086

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

I gotta read and go to bed. It a shame I can't stay up 'till 11pm.

Oh well, goodnight everyone!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4938
good evening everyone!!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8300
1132. bwat
Quoting serialteg:


your who and what?
Just a guy who wants to get in the field and earn his keep.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceman55:
Ameister12 :)

iceman55 :)
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4938
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Think he meant this - W GOM

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting bwat:
Yep, I hope we don't get all that. We are trying to get our corn and milo picked but if this rain does not let up we won't be able to get in the fields.


your who and what?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1124. bwat
Quoting Weather456:


Hertford, North Carolina?

Widespread moderate to heavy rain showers will allow an additional 3 to 4 inches of rainfall
Yep, I hope we don't get all that. We are trying to get our corn and milo picked but if this rain does not let up we won't be able to get in the fields.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceman55:
wow gfs


what? something new?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceman55:

Oh my!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4938
Quoting bwat:
Hey all, off subject a little, but will anyone forecast a rainfall amount for the area of low pressure located around zip code 27944? We've had a plenty of rain in the last few weeks, and this system looks to be a drencher! Any thoughts?


Hertford, North Carolina?

Widespread moderate to heavy rain showers will allow an additional 3 to 4 inches of rainfall
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1115. bwat
Hey all, blog ate my first post. Anyone got any rainfall estimates for zip 27944? We've already had a plenty of rain and don't need any more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1114. bwat
Hey all, off subject a little, but will anyone forecast a rainfall amount for the area of low pressure located around zip code 27944? We've had a plenty of rain in the last few weeks, and this system looks to be a drencher! Any thoughts?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting serialteg:


that's a whole lotta ridging..


it could also be prolong ridging especially if the temporal difference between the 2 troughs is large
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1111. Seastep
Quoting WeatherStudent:


My apologies, I had just said, what's good, all?


All's good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


back towards the SW, which I'm not putting confidence in. Ensembles are used to measure the likelihood of a forecast. I do think it will turn back west, but SW, I'm not a 100% convinced.



that's a whole lotta ridging..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1107. Seastep
Quoting WeatherStudent:
G'evening, all! Ya volvio este acere, mi gente, que hubo??? :)


If I could understand you, I might be able to answer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1106. JRRP
Quoting Weather456:


back towards the SW, which I'm not putting confidence in. Ensembles are used to measure the likelihood of a forecast. I do think it will turn back west, but SW, I'm not a 100% convinced.


thanks
now i know what is that means
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I'm not too good at reading the models either. The GFS doesn't look too good. But I think it's the only one calling for development. So hopefully it won't be too bad.

If you move the cursor over 162 to 168hrs, look on the bottom right it shows the GFS thinking.
Link


Fun times, atleast we are in the know. Lets just hope for a good rain event.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I'm not too good at reading the models either. The GFS doesn't look too good. But I think it's the only one calling for development. So hopefully it won't be too bad.

If you move the cursor over 162 to 168hrs, look on the bottom right it shows the GFS thinking.
Link


Hi homeless,

I saw that link...very interesting. I wonder what the strength is that they are suggesting? I guess it is a wait and see situation just like all the others....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1102. Seastep
Quoting Twinkster:



this will be fred. where have you been


LOL!

And can't stop. TY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seastep:
I'll say it. 96L is Danny.

And, I'm not buying that early recurve.

A little later? Probably, but who knows?

Don't think it'll catch the first train out, that's all.



this will be fred. where have you been
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think 96L will north, fish storm, well, so far......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Levi, keep the cycloforensics coming. Thank you very much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Samantha550:


Yeah, the met from 12 just loves his Euro! I am terrible at reading the models, do you know what intensity most are showing, nothing that strong I hope.


I'm not too good at reading the models either. The GFS doesn't look too good. But I think it's the only one calling for development. So hopefully it won't be too bad.

If you move the cursor over 162 to 168hrs, look on the bottom right it shows the GFS thinking.
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1096. Seastep
I'll say it. 96L is Danny.

And, I'm not buying that early recurve.

A little later? Probably, but who knows?

Don't think it'll catch the first train out, that's all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProduceBoy:


Hey W456, so where do the model ensambles put TD7 in 5 or 6 days?


back towards the SW, which I'm not putting confidence in. Ensembles are used to measure the likelihood of a forecast. I do think it will turn back west, but SW, I'm not a 100% convinced.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
I'm thinking the NHC kept 07L intensity at 30 knots due to the latest dvorak from SAB

07/2345 UTC 12.0N 25.5W T2.0/2.0 07L



TD 7's 5 PM position was 12.5°N 24.5°W

Somethings bugging me with the SABs location, either the COC is more South and east than what the NHC says it is or the SAB is confused.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Although interesting to track, TD7 will have absolutely no affect on the islands or the CONUS. Nice to see you back Levi!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


I guess which models predicted that wsw motion just after 1800Z today - the model ensembles.


Hey W456, so where do the model ensambles put TD7 in 5 or 6 days?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That wsw motion was incorporated in some models but the NHC did not go with it. But notice even the models that account for the wsw motion is still pulling him north.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Greg said it whatever it is will move this way towards the weekend. And that it should be watched for development. Channel 12 said it could move by us. And that the air is so moist that when it did we would likely see a lot more rain. He didn't think it would develop, at least he didn't seem too enthused about it developing. I think it's because the ECMWF has come off development. And you know how he is about the EURO. Lol.


Yeah, the met from 12 just loves his Euro! I am terrible at reading the models, do you know what intensity most are showing, nothing that strong I hope.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fred to be is following the bams-bams. Maybe it'll continue if he has trouble developing further for the next 2-3 days.
As the Dr. noted, in the tropics, expect the unexpected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Awesome pictures of cold-air funnels today that were in the tri-state area.
Link

Note: I did not take the pictures.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4938

Viewing: 1136 - 1086

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
71 °F
Overcast