New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Usually the FNMOC site would post it first. Still a depression as of now.
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1183. hydrus
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Possibly.
I was just checking the NAM model, and on the 10th and on the 11th it has two tropical lows in the Gulf, one off the S.W. coast of Florida, and one in the West central Gulf. If you have the time, look at it and give your thoughts on it.
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Impressive rain totals from Long Beach, NC/SC



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting iceman55:
btwntx08 .11pm

yep :)
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
1178. 7544
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Even if the NAM verified, it only shows a weak tropical storm at best. So, don't have that face.


hi link pleasecould that also be ex ericka the nam is showing or a new invest ty tia
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
iceman predicts Fred at 11:00 p.m. Anyone else?


I think they just keep it at a TD for now and give it untill 5AM to see the stucture and movement for future "Fred"...

Although the storm looks good at this point but it is a wait and see game on here....

Now that I said that they probably will name it at 11PM....

Taco :0)
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1172. BDADUDE
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
iceman predicts Fred at 11:00 p.m. Anyone else?

Fred left the party at 9 so he may show up there at 11.
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Quoting HurricaneSeason2004:




Even if the NAM verified, it only shows a weak tropical storm at best. So, don't have that face.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1170. Seastep
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
iceman predicts Fred at 11:00 p.m. Anyone else?


Already did, but with the wrong name. LOL... STILL LOLing at myself.

Good, though!
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Thank you cchs.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
iceman predicts Fred at 11:00 p.m. Anyone else?

me too
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Well, i'm off to bed. I will check in tomorrow morning hopefully
Good Evening, Are the remanents of Erika starting to spin up near 23.5N 67W?
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hi guys just dropping in TD7 is looking good moving WSW trying to get away from that trough I think it wants to fit Fl like its other brothers and sisters in the past I will not be surprised if the forecast track moves more and more west possible hurricane south of 17 and west of 50 and this is a guess and my thoughts on TD7
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iceman predicts Fred at 11:00 p.m. Anyone else?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Shows how much I know. I thought an 11:00 p.m. would only come out if there were watches/warnings posted.


For tropical cyclones, the NHC issues advisories every 6 hours at 5 and 11. If a storm warrants watches and warnings, the NHC will issue advisories every 3 hours at 2, 5, 8, and 11.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just noticed in checking the models that the NAM shows a weak tropical cyclone developing near Cuba and rides it up SE Florida by mid-week. Don't really believe this solution since its just the NAM depicting this, but its something to keep in mind in the coming days.


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Quoting btwntx08:

yep


Shows how much I know. I thought an 11:00 p.m. would only come out if there were watches/warnings posted.
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Quoting iceman55:
tornadodude .yeah.


yeah, you can call me matt if you want
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting CosmicEvents:

The NAM could be picking up on that spin at 24-69.


Possibly.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1150. bwat
Quoting CosmicEvents:

Welcome.
And good luck with the rain.
Hope you can get the corn and milo? off the trees.
Search milo grain....might take some of the confusion out.
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Quoting tornadodude:
does an 11 oclock advisory come out?
yes. How come you are not on tropics talk with me and wxgeek723??
Quoting tornadodude:
does an 11 oclock advisory come out?

yep
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just noticed in checking the models that the NAM shows a weak tropical cyclone developing near Cuba and rides it up SE Florida by mid-week. Don't really believe this solution since its just the NAM depicting this, but its something to keep in mind in the coming days.

The NAM could be picking up on that spin at 24-69.
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Quoting iceman55:
some one just told me we find out at 11pm


yeah, it is looking really good right now
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Just noticed in checking the models that the NAM shows a weak tropical cyclone developing near Cuba and rides it up SE Florida by mid-week. Don't really believe this solution since its just the NAM depicting this, but its something to keep in mind in the coming days.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
does an 11 oclock advisory come out?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting btwntx08:
hey homelesswanderer look what our local discussion said
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
738 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION NEARLY ENDED OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO
SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SURFACE TROUGHINESS...
VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE.
MOST INTERESTING ASPECT OF GFS GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST LATE IN THE COMING
WEEKEND
. WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY THAT THIS WILL INDEED
OCCUR
. IN THE MEANTIME...TROPICAL DOWNPOURS WILL AID IN LESSENING
THE GRIP THE EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CURRENTLY HAS ON THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY.


Yep. That's what the models were showing the last few days. Development in your area and riding up the coast. Looks to be a nasty weekend for us all.
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Quoting bwat:
Just a guy who wants to get in the field and earn his keep.

Welcome.
And good luck with the rain.
Hope you can get the corn and milo? off the trees.
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1139. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 SEP 2009 Time : 004500 UTC
Lat : 12:34:41 N Lon : 25:17:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.5 2.7 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -50.2C Cloud Region Temp : -46.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

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Quoting tornadodude:
good evening everyone!!


evening
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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