New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KoritheMan:


As Haboobs said last night, the longwave pattern does not favor a long-range strike to the United States coast for Cape Verde storms, and he's correct.


GOOD! let's keep it that way! ;)
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Quoting truecajun:


he also used our Saviour's name in vain. and last i checked we didn't call our presidents etc. God. MOST reserve the name God for our Creator.


be thankful Presslord isn't here...otherwise, he might have to administer an admonishment. :)
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Quoting ackee:
96L going be a fish storm dont see any more CV storm treaten land 4 rest of the seasons


As Haboobs said last night, the longwave pattern does not favor a long-range strike to the United States coast for Cape Verde storms, and he's correct.
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Quoting truecajun:


he also used our Saviour's name in vain. and last i checked we didn't call our presidents etc. God. MOST reserve the name God for our Creator.


yeah, I agree, but now might be a good time to try to keep to the tropics
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
1281. Relix
Fred will not affect the Antilles or I will record myself eating crow and let WU watch it. CONUS should keep an eye though.
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1280. hydrus
Good evening Storm.W--when is the last time we had two named storms in the Gulf Of Mexico at the same time?
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Quoting StormW:
Greetings!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS SPECIAL EDITION SEP. 07, 2009 ISSUED 10:35 P.M. EDT


Hi Ya StormW good to see ya..

Quoting iceman55:
taco2me61 ;) yep i want to see what the NHC does with this

could be very Interesting for sure.... But we all will know in a few more minutes...
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1278. ackee
96L going be a fish storm dont see any more CV storm treaten land 4 rest of the seasons
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:

The F-4 of my time was the Phantom II. The first Phantom was during the Korean War.


I'm sorry...my bad (beat me with a switch!). I meant "III", but somehow left off the last "I"! doh!

the F-4 Phantom II is my all-time favorite. second place is a tie between the A-10 Thunderbolt II and the P-51 Mustang!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


What makes me say that..is that I remember a storm that Pat Robertson prayed away...It did go away from his area, but hit somewhere north and caused some deaths.


such are the circumstances of chance!
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Quoting StormW:
Greetings!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS SPECIAL EDITION SEP. 07, 2009 ISSUED 10:35 P.M. EDT


goodevening! thanks!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting MrstormX:
Wouldn't that be something if we had a season with just one hurricane, Bill. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised.


No, we will end up with at least 5.
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Quoting docrod:


poof geof .....


LOL...you're keeping me from going to bed...stop it!
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1268. Seastep
Sorry for the off topic, but futuremet IS the epitome of the American dream.

Kid comes to the US from horrid conditions (anywhere in Haiti, really) and makes something of himself. Contributing. Wish more Americans would be so ambitious. Used to be.

Sorry. Had to get that out.
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Quoting pearlandaggie:


oh stop it...there's nothing wrong with a little prayer, even if it is from a RINO! LOL


What makes me say that..is that I remember a storm that Pat Robertson prayed away...It did go away from his area, but hit somewhere north and caused some deaths.
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1264. ackee
Quoting MrstormX:
Wouldn't that be something if we had a season with just one hurricane, Bill. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised.
I think we may see one more
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Quoting Seastep:
Goodnight futuremet.

Keep doing what you're doing.

You are an inspiration for many.


Thanks

Seastep....this blog has motivated me a lot

Especially users like Levi32 and 456
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Quoting iceman55:
say 11.4

I agree with you 11.4 mmmmmmm and it has moved more wsw than I thought it would....
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Right... its not a td hehe

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1260. docrod
Quoting pearlandaggie:


oh stop it...there's nothing wrong with a little prayer, even if it is from a RINO! LOL


poof geof .....
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Quoting truecajun:


kingzfan104. he was cursing,then told me to shut up because i asked him to please refrain from using God's name in vain.

it all started with him telling iceman not to post short posts. he was looking for a fight.


He did not necessarily use it in vain, for "God" is a title, not a name. Any man or entity who rules or dominate may be called a "God" or a "Lord". The real name of the true God is Y-A-H-W-E-H = Jehovah in english. (1Cor8:5,6)
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TD7 or Fred will not come anywhere close to the CONUS. Period. Copy and paste and serve me crow if I am wrong.
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Wouldn't that be something if we had a season with just one hurricane, Bill. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised.
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Quoting truecajun:


yep, they are our JOY!


Yes I'm a "Paw-Paw" and would not have it any other way....

Priceless for sure :0)
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
And Charlie Crist’s prayers will keep Fla. Safe from a hurricane. Give me an amen brothers and sisters!


oh stop it...there's nothing wrong with a little prayer, even if it is from a RINO! LOL
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night futuremet and pearlaggie.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hi guys just dropping in TD7 is looking good moving WSW trying to get away from that trough I think it wants to fit Fl like its other brothers and sisters in the past I will not be surprised if the forecast track moves more and more west possible hurricane south of 17 and west of 50 and this is a guess and my thoughts on TD7



actually you cant get away from something you havent met yet.

The wsw motion is a result of high pressure will probably being forced southward due the advancing trough resulting in a downward motion and wsw motion.

Irony I call it.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Well if the GOM thing happens, it will probably be a nice little TD. Even if it does strike the Florida Peninsula it would likely just be a little rainmaker.
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1246. Seastep
Goodnight futuremet.

Keep doing what you're doing.

You are an inspiration for many.
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And Charlie Crist’s prayers will keep Fla. Safe from a hurricane. Give me an amen brothers and sisters!
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Quoting pearlandaggie:


man, there is no greater truth in life!!! :)


yep, they are our JOY!
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Quoting iceman55:
Link


Zzzz...what..huh?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hi guys just dropping in TD7 is looking good moving WSW trying to get away from that trough I think it wants to fit Fl like its other brothers and sisters in the past I will not be surprised if the forecast track moves more and more west possible hurricane south of 17 and west of 50 and this is a guess and my thoughts on TD7


Seriously?

...No, really, @&*!ing seriously? C'mon.
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Quoting Weather456:
Satellite imagery continue to show that TD 7 is organizing, probably TS Fred in the morning.


Yes I think 5AM they will name him....
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Quoting iceman55:
truecajun did u get my email


yes i just replied no, but now i'm starting to think you are correct.
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I'm out for tonight guys

see you tomorrow afternoon
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Quoting Seastep:


Any parent knows there is no better gift from God.

Priceless.


man, there is no greater truth in life!!! :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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