The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

Share this Blog
3
+

Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1494 - 1444

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

Quoting CatastrophicDL:
I'm in Utah. It's been 22 years since I was in college, so I'm taking some refresher courses at a community college before transferring back to BYU, then planning on UofU for my PhD in archaeology.


im 27 and starting a 2nd b.a. in computer engineering w/an associates in meteorology for now... some people think that college is just to get a degree and go on with life, i think you can learn and study while you construct your material life also... to me learning at that level is not limited to the 18-21year old standard... obviously I have to think that to keep my esteem up high :D

especially if i plan to pursue postgraduate afterwards, which is my inclination
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00Z GFS develops 4 systems in the Atlantic in the next 9 days.

storm 1 is 96L and it appears storm #s 1,3 and 4 go out to sea

but storm #2 slips through the cracks and the GFS has it making landfall in the islands in 9 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


I would be more worried about the system off the Carols.. heading to the NY area.


yeah that would be the next punch in the sequence
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceman55:


Latest Image


thanks ice
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Wow. Nice perspective on that video Pat. We had a ball crawling all over the space stuff in the Smithsonian when I was a kid. I was telling a friend of mine all about it once. She just looked at me like big deal. Sigh. I forgot she was born after men had walked on the moon. Lol. It was a very big deal back then. Thanks for the memory. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
I'm in Utah. It's been 22 years since I was in college, so I'm taking some refresher courses at a community college before transferring back to BYU, then planning on UofU for my PhD in archaeology.


oh wow, well thats exciting, i go to Purdue for Meteorology
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Patrap:
Rare View from the Launch Umbilical Tower Deck.

Super Slow Motion.
Notice the Large chunks of Ice falling from the Cold frosted Upper Stages of the Saturn 5.

November 14, 1969 carrying the Apollo 12 mission, seen from the LUT deck in slow motion.

The Video also shows the Pad pummeled by 7.5 million lbs of Thrust.



Quite a wow video pat, awesome
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


haha well there you go, where do you attend?
I'm in Utah. It's been 22 years since I was in college, so I'm taking some refresher courses at a community college before transferring back to BYU, then planning on UofU for my PhD in archaeology.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting serialteg:


Ive seen that extreme high over Europe in a few models ... i guess that's one of the key players in keeping 96L on a west track or not


I would be more worried about the system off the Carols.. heading to the NY area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Actually, about 1020nm in 72 hours


Ok that makes sence 15mph movement would make it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yeah. A little bit. Wow!


Ive seen that extreme high over Europe in a few models ... i guess that's one of the key players in keeping 96L on a west track or not
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Areas of Interest featured!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:
mm5fsu-merge 2009090600 Forecast slp Java Animation

This one is a little worrisome.


Yeah. A little bit. Wow!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1479. Patrap
Rare View from the Launch Umbilical Tower Deck.

Super Slow Motion.
Notice the Large chunks of Ice falling from the Cold frosted Upper Stages of the Saturn 5.

November 14, 1969 carrying the Apollo 12 mission, seen from the LUT deck in slow motion.

The Video also shows the Pad pummeled by 7.5 million lbs of Thrust.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Orcasystems:
mm5fsu-merge 2009090600 Forecast slp Java Animation

This one is a little worrisome.


Why? on a wnw heading around 40-45w poses no threat to the U.S. deep trof out there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
mm5fsu-merge 2009090600 Forecast slp Java Animation

This one is a little worrisome.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
T-Dude, I'm an old college student. Now that you mention it I do have a couple of giddy guys and girls in one of my classes.


haha well there you go, where do you attend?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
T-Dude, I'm an old college student. Now that you mention it I do have a couple of giddy guys and girls in one of my classes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Making some math the models have it at 37w in 72hrs the Low is located at 20W thats 1,700 miles in 72 so 96L should move very quikly at about 25mph to make it to that point at 72hrs.

Do I am correct Storm W?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jerrob:
g-nite everyone. see ya in the am....


goodnite!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
1468. Jerrob
g-nite everyone. see ya in the am....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm, don't forget the GOM forecast...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
infact is it makes it to 40W and under 25N I would be surprised.... only thing really to watch would be home grown in the Keys or GOM over the next 2-10 days...@ least home threatening...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting truecajun:
some more of the wait and see game. good night all. I'm sleepy.


Good night. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1463. Patrap
Quoting truecajun:
some more of the wait and see game. good night all. I'm sleepy.


Night Cher,..sweet dreams
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
96L will probably never make it past 50W....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
some more of the wait and see game. good night all. I'm sleepy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


I have to look at other things, but just based on the 12Z run on the steering forcast layers, which becomes valid for 00Z (4 hours ago), would you believe I look for model guidance to shift left, and I'm on the middle to southern model guidance? Based on just the steering layers forecast (which I would want to see more runs), they have 96L near 20-21N, 35-36W in 5 days, with the ridge building back.

STATISTICAL


Dynamic


Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


I have to look at other things, but just based on the 12Z run on the steering forcast layers, which becomes valid for 00Z (4 hours ago), would you believe I look for model guidance to shift left, and I'm on the middle to southern model guidance? Based on just the steering layers forecast (which I would want to see more runs), they have 96L near 20-21N, 35-36W in 5 days, with the ridge building back.

STATISTICAL


Dynamic


Oh brother. We should've learned from Erika nothing goes as planned. Lol. Thanks Storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1458. Jerrob
Ok Storm, interesting to see what the morning brings!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good early Labor Day morning everyone! The tropics may be getting pretty interesting soon both in the Gulf of Mexico and Central Atlantic as we could have two different systems to track sometime within the next 72 hours. I will have much more sometime late this morning or this afternoon when I update my website again.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1456. Patrap
Quoting Jerrob:
Patrap, that is so cool! thanks


Yeah,..I remember Apollo 12 well. A Perfect Landing near the edge of Surveyor Crater.

So sad they Burned out the Color TV camera while setting it up..we wouldnt have TV from the Surface of the Moon till Apollo 14.
As well..13 didnt Land.

Apollo 12 was also very Lucky as they Launched thru a FLa T-storm and the ROcket Plume made a conduit for a Strike Leader and "Boom",..Apollo 12 Got Hit by Lightening 30 secs Post Launch,Lost all their NAv and Displays and was a real Pucker Moment for the Crew.

Who Luckily were able to quickly Re-configure the Conn.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Skyepony:


& wikipedia says that is a bunch of fiction. We have proof. lol.

I've got to get back to unpacking. Nice not to be driven home early for a cane in the peak of season.


haha well have a good rest of the night
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
1454. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting tornadodude:


the black thing is the deathstar


& wikipedia says that is a bunch of fiction. We have proof. lol.

I've got to get back to unpacking. Nice not to be driven home early for a cane in the peak of season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

I didn't think guys would know giddy LOL!


haha but a young college student like myself is around a lot of giddy girls ;)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Probably a decommissioned satellite.


Oh.....learn something new everyday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Ok, putting off cleaning up from spaghetti night. Lol. It's good but what a mess. Waiting on the model runs. And a nice surprise update from Storm. :)


haha sounds fun, and yes, very glad :) thanks Storm!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


haha giddy can be fun tho LOL

I didn't think guys would know giddy LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:


how are you tonight?



ive actually never heard that one, nice! :)


Ok, putting off cleaning up from spaghetti night. Lol. It's good but what a mess. Waiting on the model runs. And a nice surprise update from Storm. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting truecajun:


what is the block thing in the corner of the image?


Probably a decommissioned satellite.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting WeatherStudent:
G'evening, Catas. How are ya? Long time no see. How are the Rookies treating you?

WS I don't know about Rookies - I haven't hung out with any of those for over a decade :o) LOL

The rockies are good. Planning on a new trail tomorrow. It's hard to get out. I've gone back to school. Trying to finish a PhD by the time I'm 45! I've got a big trip planned at the end of the month and some backcountry canyoneering over Christmas. Of course there will be photos posted.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


There was a close impact a few days ago with some satellites. Pretty cool.


what is the block thing in the corner of the image?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1444. Jerrob
Patrap, that is so cool! thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1494 - 1444

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.