The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting btwntx08:

hello tornadodude what i miss for an hr


well, did you catch Storm's new update? if not, you should read it
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting homelesswanderer:


That's that common sense your Dad spoke of. :)


haha yup, common sense tells me to be a Cowboys fan :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Went thru all of the storms in Biloxi area since I was a kid remembering as far back as Camille and then moved away to Chicago for 8 years only to return for a surprise visit to see my dad for his birhtday with my new 6 week old son only to go thru Georges on Sept 28th...that was aweful...it didn't want to ruin my record and miss any storms down here now would it..lol..
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Quoting tornadodude:


why thank you, I try. figure I wont obtain my goals if I do something dumb and get expelled or whatnot. lol just gotta keep a level head


That's that common sense your Dad spoke of. :)
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:
This has been a great hurricane season so far and I hope it stays this way... NO threats if something forms will go NW I just hope we keep that pattern. It feels nice and cool over the Gulf COast by the way...


Yes, that would be great...I keep thinking of that saying. If something seems to good to be true, it probably is...we shall see....still have a little while left of the season.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
homelesswanderer

Hi local....


Hi Tex. :)
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Quoting btwntx08:
i'm back


howdy
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. Yes he is. And I'm sure you'll do him proud. You seem like a pretty sensible young man to me. And good luck with the rest of your studies. :)


why thank you, I try. figure I wont obtain my goals if I do something dumb and get expelled or whatnot. lol just gotta keep a level head
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
homelesswanderer

Hi local....
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This has been a great hurricane season so far and I hope it stays this way... NO threats if something forms will go NW I just hope we keep that pattern. It feels nice and cool over the Gulf COast by the way...
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


384 hours, intensifying storm headed towards the US with a ridge in place

based on the long range runs this would be Grace possibly
somehow the name GRACE and Hurricane should definietly not be one inthe same...isn't it that Grace that saves us....c'mon that can't actually happen..just wouldn't be right...
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Quoting tornadodude:


I would love to have one of those, my dad always tells me to have common sense, smart man lol


Lol. Yes he is. And I'm sure you'll do him proud. You seem like a pretty sensible young man to me. And good luck with the rest of your studies. :)
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Quoting Relix:


That's after battering PR if it's the model I saw =P. Darn Puerto Rico and G hurricanes =(


To make things more bizard Sept 21 same date that George make landfall here in PR and a G storm.
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1525. JLPR
Quoting TexasHurricane:


well, it would seem that there would have to be at least one to fall through the cracks...


yep one always does :|
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. I like that. A common sense degree. Boy do I know some people I wish would get one of those! I'd even pay for it. Lol.


I would love to have one of those, my dad always tells me to have common sense, smart man lol
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
1523. JLPR
Quoting Relix:

For all we know and the GFS ensembles it could build back with 96L and push it West, WSW =P


lol well then
two system would leave the island in bad shape so I would probably take a plane and visit my family at NYC XD
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Quoting StormW:


Twofold...Common Sense, and Continuing Study.


Lol. I like that. A common sense degree. Boy do I know some people I wish would get one of those! I'd even pay for it. Lol.
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1520. Relix
Quoting JLPR:
I see GFS sees the ridge building back after 96L pushing the system behind 96L to the west....
well that's no good =P

For all we know and the GFS ensembles it could build back with 96L and push it West, WSW =P
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Quoting JLPR:
I see GFS sees the ridge building back after 96L pushing the system behind 96L to the west....
well that's no good =P


well, it would seem that there would have to be at least one to fall through the cracks...
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Quoting serialteg:


im 27 and starting a 2nd b.a. in computer engineering w/an associates in meteorology for now... some people think that college is just to get a degree and go on with life, i think you can learn and study while you construct your material life also... to me learning at that level is not limited to the 18-21year old standard... obviously I have to think that to keep my esteem up high :D

especially if i plan to pursue postgraduate afterwards, which is my inclination

I hadn't planned on more college at all. My primary focus for the last 22 years has been raising my children. Once I realized my youngest was finally going to be in school, I decided to follow my dream of digging in the dirt in remote places :o)
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1515. JLPR
96L looks larger =P
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1512. JLPR
I see GFS sees the ridge building back after 96L pushing the system behind 96L to the west....
well that's no good =P
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Quoting StormW:


Twofold...Common Sense, and Continuing Study.


oh ok, well keep up the good work :)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


you are correct, I say it might be the G storm IF we dont get development in the GOM in a few days


00z GFS wasn't too optimistic on development there thru 168 hours. Shows 3 CV systems including 96L in that time however.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


384 hours, intensifying storm headed towards the US with a ridge in place

based on the long range runs this would be Grace possibly


I hope that don't happen again! Glad it's so far away.
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Quoting Relix:


That's after battering PR if it's the model I saw =P. Darn Puerto Rico and G hurricanes =(


you are correct, I say it might be the G storm IF we dont get development in the GOM in a few days
Quoting StormW:
I have my C.S. in meteorology.


excuse my ignorance, c.s.?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
1503. Relix
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


384 hours, intensifying storm headed towards the US with a ridge in place

based on the long range runs this would be Grace possibly


That's after battering PR if it's the model I saw =P. Darn Puerto Rico and G hurricanes =(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


384 hours, intensifying storm headed towards the US with a ridge in place

based on the long range runs this would be Grace possibly
00Z GFS now develop another TC behing 96L and have it making into the NE caribbean 300hrs from now. I know is a long long shot but this maybe the one thats finally make some noise close to George aniversary here in the islands sept 19 to 22.
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TD by the end of the day
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
I'm in Utah. It's been 22 years since I was in college, so I'm taking some refresher courses at a community college before transferring back to BYU, then planning on UofU for my PhD in archaeology.


im 27 and starting a 2nd b.a. in computer engineering w/an associates in meteorology for now... some people think that college is just to get a degree and go on with life, i think you can learn and study while you construct your material life also... to me learning at that level is not limited to the 18-21year old standard... obviously I have to think that to keep my esteem up high :D

especially if i plan to pursue postgraduate afterwards, which is my inclination
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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