The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting iceman55:
20min n.h.c update i guess red we find out

May see TS watches for the CV islands.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070538
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Ugh. Be back in a bit. The dishwasher awaits. :)
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Quoting JLPR:


I agree it looks very healthy
im thinking TD at 11am tomorrow


We should be able to make a guess based on the TWO.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
Quoting homelesswanderer:


They're still showing that weird stretched out thing by TX then into LA. Wondering if CMC Euro still are?


definitely interesting...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1589. JLPR
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Tropical Cyclone likely in 12-16 hours.



I agree it looks very healthy
im thinking TD at 11am tomorrow
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That little spinner of the South Carolina coast is getting interesting.

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Quoting matt03blueoptima:
hello everybody its i while that i dont post here since we got hit by ike last year ( in in houston lol) i see that something might develop in the tropics?


Hi. Welcome back after Ike. Hope all is well. The GFS model in particular is showing a lot of storms forming. Looks like its heating back up. So far nothing into Ike country yet. Just something seeming to ride our coast into la?
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1585. JLPR
96L has something close to a happy face but it missing an eye lol
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Tropical Cyclone likely in 12-16 hours.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
thanks iceman
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1581. JLPR
96L keeps looking nice
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Quoting iceman55:
Link

here ukm hmmmm


They're still showing that weird stretched out thing by TX then into LA. Wondering if CMC Euro still are?
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Quoting tornadodude:
well, time to go to sleep, so goodnight all! if I dont see you on tomorrow, have a great labor day guys :)


Night. :)
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anybody got a wind shear map for the Gulf of Mexico you can post a link for please? I dont know where to find it. thanks
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hello everybody its i while that i dont post here since we got hit by ike last year ( in in houston lol) i see that something might develop in the tropics?
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well, time to go to sleep, so goodnight all! if I dont see you on tomorrow, have a great labor day guys :)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting btwntx08:
hmmmm


Sigh.
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BT, I can't tell if the GFS pulls an Humberto on ya or if that develops on land. Looks scary though. Link
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1570. JLPR
Quoting btwntx08:
hmmmm


im impressed the Catl wave has any chance for development
shear is making it look like a meteor xD
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Quoting btwntx08:
hmmmm


looks like the western GOM... among others.
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I think that is a different one than they were showing later in next week. But I could be wrong.


hmmmmmm....
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting TexasHurricane:


ok, so I guess it will sit their for a bit and decide where to go...


I think that is a different one than they were showing later in next week. But I could be wrong.
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Quoting iceman55:
i stay in slidell la .pic from 2005
ok thanks...i thought it was...looked familiar..
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iceman....the picture we see there to the left of your post every time you post...what is it a picture of and where from?
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Quoting btwntx08:

where is it he didn't update his blog so it has to be a page or two back right??


oops, my bad, he is working on it right now, sorry guys :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting iceman55:
TexasHurricane low stall


ok, so I guess it will sit their for a bit and decide where to go...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting StormW:


I'll have a new update posted on my blog in about 20 min.


oh ok, well I read the old one, oops :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Is 96L in the EPAC supposed to bring moisture to CA and help w/ the fires?
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
Lol @ Cowboys fan. We'll see Sunday against Tampa Bay. Uh oh. Tampa's not around is he? Hee hee.


haha should be a good one, last time they played, Romo had 5 td passes
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Lol @ Cowboys fan. We'll see Sunday against Tampa Bay. Uh oh. Tampa's not around is he? Hee hee.
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iceman, what is that picture of your avatar from or rather where? ...
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Quoting iceman55:


00z NAM images sorry if to big


Is that low in the GOM moving east or west?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.