The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Wow! Wet, blowing & dropping pressure here on Pleasure Island. No matter what the weather in the am - gotta pick them maters!
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
SC low is still frontal in nature, likely baroclonic

thats why its not mentioned in the TWO, cuz its highly unlikely it would be tropical or even subtropical


I do understand what you are saying but, look at the Vorticity maps and the Convergence and Divergence maps....i looked at quckscat and nothing showing as the pics are old.......but, based on the data i would say it is at least a subTropical

look at this bouy......5mb difference since yesterday at this time....and falling fast.

Conditions at 41013 as of
(1:50 am EDT)
0550 GMT on 09/07/2009:

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 14.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 17.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.1 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 80 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1014.7 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -2.2 mb ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 23.9 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 27.2 °C
Dew Point (DEWP): 22.8 °C
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Low off my coast is interesting... but prlly not tropical or subtropical.. there's a warm front in our area also.. The winds are getting gusty out tho, and my local NWS has handled rain with a short term... They say we could have some heavy rain today... from this low.. very impressive to look @ on radar though, even if it isn't anything.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I know it may not be tropical but that looks like it's fixing to take off. Is it supposed to affect the NE Coast?
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Quoting btwntx08:

ummm no low on gfs cause homelesswanderer said a system will pull an humberto on me or something


Hi y'all. I'm back. Yes the GFS you can see it a little on the SLP model but more on the 850vort.
It's a close call on land or off. Link
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96L may well take a path similar to Isidore and Josephine of 1990.
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1635. JLPR
96L has continued to loose its very circular shape but it looks very healthy still



and its models


remember don't trust them yet xD
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SC low is still frontal in nature, likely baroclonic

thats why its not mentioned in the TWO, cuz its highly unlikely it would be tropical or even subtropical
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Quoting matt03blueoptima:
i think thats the low out the coast of south carolina right??


Yes it is!

Quoting JLPR:


that looks too interesting to not have a circle over it =|

maybe the NHC lost the yellow and orange crayons lol


Yes i agree....i have i listed as my feature items of main interest on my Tropical Update
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Wow Tampa that radar loop shows a quickly organizing storm. Almost reminds me of what we saw with Claudette. Rain filling in on the NE side there, with what appears to be a feeder band to the SE. Circulation is clearly evident.
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Quoting iceman55:
TampaSpin ccl ??
i think thats the low out the coast of south carolina right??
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1630. JLPR
Quoting TampaSpin:


that looks too interesting to not have a circle over it =|

maybe the NHC lost the yellow and orange crayons lol
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Awesome loop Tim!

Thanks for sharing.
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anyone has a link to the ukm?
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Quoting iceman55:
matt03blueoptima lolol yeah


hehehe ok just checking my models lol
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Quoting matt03blueoptima:
well isnt the CMC the model that is always high on some kind of drugs showing storms like everywhere??? at least thats what i remember from lat year


It went through a major upgrade this year.

Or in this case...rehab.
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the fronts have been dropping into the gulf way early this year. It doesnt surprise me to see the models trying to spin something up there. remember the CMC is usually is a little stronger than the other models. There is always a chance for something to spin off those stationary boundaries. Weather pattern has been weird in the gulf states this year. I didnt have to water my grass once all summer. :)
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Quoting iceman55:
cmc show low in gom right by nola and gfs show no low
well isnt the CMC the model that is always high on some kind of drugs showing storms like everywhere??? at least thats what i remember from lat year
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1613. JLPR
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Correct
If we see TS warnings then its not a fish.


then all the dream and hope of the people here including me that were saying it was a fish shall then be destroyed lol xD

please ignore that im doing a social science homework and my brain is in pain =P
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Quoting matt03blueoptima:
sorry my extreme ignorance but what does CV stands for? again i apologize


actually I love seeing a question I can answer--you can learn alot just lurking
Member Since: September 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Cape Verde
thanks it just popped in my head when i seen the map with the red my bad and thanks for the response anyway =]
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Quoting matt03blueoptima:
sorry my extreme ignorance but what does CV stands for? again i apologize


Cape Verde
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A lot of people will jump on me for this but it looks like anything coming off of Africa the rest of this year will end up pushing out to sea. The main blocking ridge has broken down so the steering current is not setup for anything t make it all the way to the states.

I would still watch for spin offs from fronts that are draped over the Gulf.
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sorry my extreme ignorance but what does CV stands for? again i apologize
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Quoting JLPR:


yep looks like it
The people in the CV islands should keep a close eye on this as it is very close to them and if it hits them it is no longer a fish storm xD

Correct
If we see TS warnings then its not a fish.
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1599. JLPR
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

May see TS watches for the CV islands.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070538
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



yep looks like it
The people in the CV islands should keep a close eye on this as it is very close to them and if it hits them it is no longer a fish storm xD
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Hi. Welcome back after Ike. Hope all is well. The GFS model in particular is showing a lot of storms forming. Looks like its heating back up. So far nothing into Ike country yet. Just something seeming to ride our coast into la?


thanks.. yeha we are ok here... i noticed the 2 lows off africa and someone mentioning one in the gulf? i might be wrong lol
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A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


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Quoting iceman55:
20min n.h.c update i guess red we find out

May see TS watches for the CV islands.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070538
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.