The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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I see 10 more name storms

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Quoting TampaSpin:
There is nothing in the GOM to presently worry about......The shear is 30-40kts and looks to get stronger. The blob in the SW corner of the GOM, appears to be just Divergence and will likely die out in a few hours. It has NO vorticity at any levels....simply put it just a thunderstorm in high shear.

AMEN.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Im very worried about the mass in GOM, will it be another alicia?
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Quoting TampaSpin:
There is nothing in the GOM to presently worry about......The shear is 30-40kts and looks to get stronger. The blob in the SW corner of the GOM, appears to be just Divergence and will likely die out in a few hours. It has NO vorticity at any levels....simply put it just a thunderstorm in high shear.

Thanx
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There is nothing in the GOM to presently worry about......The shear is 30-40kts and looks to get stronger. The blob in the SW corner of the GOM, appears to be just Divergence and will likely die out in a few hours. It has NO vorticity at any levels....simply put it just a thunderstorm in high shear.
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Quoting goddessnoel4u:
95 is pulling a ike, it will get in the gulf

Oh don't start please. its so far away even the big man himself doesn't know what its going to do let alone u.
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Quoting Cotillion:


Guessing Chebi, then...

Link

A sad instance.

I'm guessing it was Severe Tropical Storm Utor (Feria)
the name rings a bell.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Its not going to move very fast. As there just not much to steer it. Its sorta sandwiched between a weak Bermuda High and a High off the NE Coast. It may not move anywhere very fast.


that might not be good as i have seen this situation before
better if it doesnt sit too long
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Quoting AussieStorm:

the BOC looks interesting


IT WILL hit texas, not florida
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no hurricaNES WILL hit FLORIDA!
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Quoting Ameister12:
Nice convection in the GoM.

the BOC looks interesting
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Quoting K8eCane:



WNW is right toward me Tampa
How long do you think it has B4 it moves inland?
very breezy this am


Its not going to move very fast. As there just not much to steer it. Its sorta sandwiched between a weak Bermuda High and a High off the NE Coast. It may not move anywhere very fast.
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Quoting K8eCane:
I've been throwin CAROLINA out there all mornin and still no word from Press....
Give it time, He will be here.....
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I sense a hurricane will hit texas

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Quoting AussieStorm:

All i remember was having to cancel the van we hired cause Bagiou was under 9 feet of water and many people died


Guessing Chebi, then...

Link

A sad instance.
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I am not sure if someone posted anything, but check out the 2009-2010 winter forecast that has been posted in the feature blog by Blizz. A lot of interesting information.2009 2010 winter forecast
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Quoting goddessnoel4u:


CMC is showing another Ike.


Disregard.. I was quoting a puff of wind
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
So much for cooking out today with all this tropical rain coming in off the Gulf....Link
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
Texas is toast, CMC shows a monster storm hitting.

rita part 2

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009090600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=096hr
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Nice convection in the GoM.
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morning
although the tropics llok very hostlie for any development. there seem to be a sign that it could become conducive the next few days. the huge ULL off the northeast coast of the CONUS is moving out out rather quickly to the northeast. the TUTT which is now to the east of the bahamas seems to be filling in,and result in the weakening of the shear in the region. it is very noticeable that both the tropical wave at 45W and 95L are moving west. albeit devoid of any substantial convection. dry air inthe region will be an inhibiting factor to development. we will have to wait and see how things pan out with the peak of the e season a few days away
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Quoting Weather456:
Still a quiet tropical Atlantic is not good, so I cant pretend it is. Whats the point of coming here if the tropics are quiet. It is just the same as when blog activity crawls in the middle of February.
I understand what you mean. Some adrenaline junkies climb Mt.Everest, some sky dive, others fight fires in California and Victoria. Watching the tropics gets my heart pumping.
Having said that, I am relieved that (to date) this season has been relatively quiet. I can use the down time to consolidate what I have learned. 456 I hope that you and others will continue to share your knowledge and to answer questions.

Quoting Weather456:
. Also no one should feel guilty or be forced into guilt for wanting tropical activity as most of us live for it and while we dont want the destruction they bring, it is something beyond our control.
Yep!!! Intense interest in tropical storms, does not cause a storm to form, determine it's path or strength.
It is one of the reason that wishcasters or downcasters do not bother me. Human desires have no effect on these storms. Intense interest, however can lead to better preparation - this is a good thing.

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200 MB Vorticity underlay with current weather overlay

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting IKE:
Dr. Lyons said the systems in the EATL would have probably developed if it weren't for El Nino. He said the system between 45-50W and 95L...probably would be named storms if it weren't an El Nino year.

He also said that he's watching the wave emerging off of Africa.

There's more to weather and life than the tropics.

Glad that it's quiet in the Atlantic. I'm sure Galveston and the islands are happy it's quiet compared to how it was in 2008 at this time....







CMC is showing another Ike.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
The little spinner off the South Carolina Coast has some chance of developing. It is currently in shear of 15-20kts. It has good Vorticity return at the lower and mid levels. Upper Divergence looks good as it is aided in ventalation by the ULL to the East. Lower Convergence is not great, but present. Here is the tricky part! It is in a very low steering environment, so it is likely to drift WNW very slow.




WNW is right toward me Tampa
How long do you think it has B4 it moves inland?
very breezy this am
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Quoting Cotillion:


Possibly Chebi, Lekima, or Lingling? (The first two tracked fair close, the last less so... but was very strong.) All 2001.

No typhoon really came close to Luzon in 2002 as far as I can tell.

All i remember was having to cancel the van we hired cause Bagiou was under 9 feet of water and many people died
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It looks like The CMC shows a major hurricane hitting TE-HAS. Ike Part 2
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Hey 456 just a quick question, Do you think the blob in the SW GOM will take a opal like track across the Gulf????

Link
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
I see the tropics are quite, guess El Nino is killing them all!
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The little spinner off the South Carolina Coast has some chance of developing. It is currently in shear of 15-20kts. It has good Vorticity return at the lower and mid levels. Upper Divergence looks good as it is aided in ventalation by the ULL to the East. Lower Convergence is not great, but present. Here is the tricky part! It is in a very low steering environment, so it is likely to drift WNW very slow.

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Quoting K8eCane:



thanks ameister

You're welcome.
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IS there a spot in the Atlantic that isnt getting shear??
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I am trying to think of the Typhoon the stopped me from going to Bagiou Philppines in 2001 or 2002, It flooded the city.


Possibly Chebi, Lekima, or Lingling? (The first two tracked fair close, the last less so... but was very strong.) All 2001.

No typhoon really came close to Luzon in 2002 as far as I can tell.
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Looking at this image



I am impressed by the validity of the old saying "make hay while the sun shines", and since the sun IS currently shining outside, I think I'll go do some stuff out there... will be in here off and on in between jaunts...

I sure hope that doesn't just slide off to the north, though. I am hoping for some p.m. showers.....
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Quoting Ameister12:

Link



thanks ameister
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Quoting amd:
looks like the tropical wave off Africa is the only system with some chance to develop. An anticyclone is attached to this wave for now, and as long as it stays below 17 north, strong westerlies will not affect its development.

Link

However, for the rest of the Atlantic, IMHO, I have never seen conditions so unfavorable for development in early September. Some good links to show how unfavorable it really is:

Link

Link
Yeap, I guess the "El nino effects" are upon the hurricane season 2009.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
Quoting Cotillion:


Well remembered, forgotten about that.

Typhoon Nuri/Karen

(That did hit something though, unfortunately.)

I am trying to think of the Typhoon the stopped me from going to Bagiou Philppines in 2001 or 2002, It flooded the city.
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Quoting K8eCane:


where did you get that radar pic?
its awesome

Link
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Quoting amd:
looks like the tropical wave off Africa is the only system with some chance to develop. An anticyclone is attached to this wave for now, and as long as it stays below 17 north, strong westerlies will not affect its development.

Link

However, for the rest of the Atlantic, IMHO, I have never seen conditions so unfavorable for development in early September. Some good links to show how unfavorable it really is:

Link

Link
Hey, amd. Good to see u in the blog.

Some interesting links u posted.
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting Ameister12:

This little storm system might be the cause.


where did you get that radar pic?
its awesome
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Quoting amd:
looks like the tropical wave off Africa is the only system with some chance to develop. An anticyclone is attached to this wave for now, and as long as it stays below 17 north, strong westerlies will not affect its development.

Link

However, for the rest of the Atlantic, IMHO, I have never seen conditions so unfavorable for development in early September. Some good links to show how unfavorable it really is:

Link

Link


very true, with that branch near 20N it almost seems like the subtropical jet which is suppose to develop in November

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Quoting Weather456:


Well I already have prepared a blog which I will post during the off-season along with many others.

"Life without tropical cyclones"

For starters, this blog will be useless and dont tell me that we can discuss other things like local weather, cuz I'm not coming here to tell anyone, I got 4 inches of last week...lol lol
Every "off" season I think we get better at discussing the "other" basins' storms. I've stuck around for three ATL winter seasons, and we've had some interesting moments watching SIndian, Australian, and in a couple of cases, SPac storms. I have also noticed that the amount of information available on the 'net abt those other basins seems to increase each season.

Then there's all the reanalysis info, Dr. Gray's early forecast, new studies that have been unveiled - we do manage to amuse ourselves. But the pace is definitely slower.

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morning everyone....wondering if that area in the SW part of the GOM has any potential?? possible remnants from the EPAC storm??...just curious....
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I've been throwin CAROLINA out there all mornin and still no word from Press....
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Quoting IKE:
Dr. Lyons said the systems in the EATL would have probably developed if it weren't for El Nino. He said the system between 45-50W and 95L...probably would be named storms if it weren't an El Nino year.

He also said that he's watching the wave emerging off of Africa.

There's more to weather and life than the tropics.

Glad that it's quiet in the Atlantic. I'm sure Galveston and the islands are happy it's quiet compared to how it was in 2008 at this time....







then why are you so optimistic about any feature that may develop in the GOM.
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Erika remnants cause 9" to 10" of rain in some areas in Puerto Rico, specially the SE coast of the Island, causing structural and agricultural damages.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
Quoting Ameister12:

This little storm system might be the cause.



yes it is
we are watching it here
things blow up quick off the CAROLINA coast
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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