The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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The GFS/GFDL merge is showing that a surface trough develops over the SE GOM and tracks across Florida and along the US East Coast, deepens it rather significantly offshore SC. It also shows Fred in the Eastern Atlantic

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting sporteguy03:


That should make an interesting entry.

we had 2 inches of rain on Friday.
we have had more rain in 1 day than we did for the whole of August.
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Baha - guess its your turn for the rain, looks like it moved from us to you for today. At least it should keep the temps down.
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Post 69 - really like that graphic overlay Orca
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Quoting Weather456:


Well I already have prepared a blog which I will post during the off-season along with many others.

"Life without tropical cyclones"

For starters, this blog will be useless and dont tell me that we can discuss other things like local weather, cuz I'm not coming here to tell anyone, I got 4 inches of last week...lol lol


That should make an interesting entry.
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Quoting Weather456:
this blog = priceless
Agreed!!! Because of people like you that put in all the hard work of trying to forcast for others.
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Quoting Seastep:
Good morning all. Have to run to church, but most don't look at them, so fwiw (at least it's a tease) both fsu models show the wave coming off Africa as not recurving so soon.

Link

Link


I see a east cost storm forming off of Flordia.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4905
this blog = priceless
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


Not the remnants of Erika as the 72 hr surface forecast has that moving NW remaining NE of the Bahamas. This feature comes from a dying or stalled out frontal boundary.


Thank You....

I hate it when a front stalls in the Gulf and the water as warm as it is.... So on that note we will have more rain this week "UGH"
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dr.masters will leave you blog alone?
good bye now? the troll hunters are coming, and must get away. bye lucario, skykid, stormno and other trolls. BYE EVERYONE, I LOVE U ALL
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Quoting taco2me61:


I'm sorry I missed this post had to get more coffee LOL but I wanted to say thank you.... Now that is said is this blob from that will be in the SE GOM the remants of Erika that is to be coming between Key West and Cuba????


Not the remnants of Erika as the 72 hr surface forecast has that moving NW remaining NE of the Bahamas. This feature comes from a dying or stalled out frontal boundary.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Good morning all. Have to run to church, but most don't look at them, so fwiw (at least it's a tease) both fsu models show the wave coming off Africa as not recurving so soon.

Link

Link

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Quoting AussieStorm:
Why can't i post graphics?

I'll try again.


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Quoting goddessnoel4u:
95 is pulling a ike, it will get in the gulf

Nobody wants to hear that.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4905
Why can't i post graphics?
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Quoting Weather456:



I dont think so, indications are high pressure will keep it there. meanwhile, a surface trough may develop over SE GOM but I dont think its related to the SW GOM area.


I'm sorry I missed this post had to get more coffee LOL but I wanted to say thank you.... Now that is said is this blob from that will be in the SE GOM the remants of Erika that is to be coming between Key West and Cuba????
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Quoting leftovers:
apocalsye has been wrong all yr. hope he's wrong about 2012 too


Just watch, 2012 turns into a damp squib...

Still, we'll see if the AMO does peak like last time at the end of the decade. Could get a bit scary for folks, then.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

do what i did, put them on ignore... how can they say invest 95L looks like Ike.


95L is almost a swirl in the ATL
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Quoting Weather456:


Well I already have prepared a blog which I will post during the off-season along with many others.

"Life without tropical cyclones"

For starters, this blog will be useless and dont tell me that we can discuss other things like local weather, cuz I'm not coming here to tell anyone, I got 4 inches of last week...lol lol


I'm sorry you only got 4 inches...

Looking forward to reading your blog when finished.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034

Ref the area off on Carolina coast--from the doc's blog above

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.



Jeff Masters
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Quoting Ameister12:
Nice convection in the GoM.


Does the GOM blob have any swirl potential, you think?
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tropics are active, should be the new title.

I see 10 name storms
a storm will hit the cowboy state CMC is never wrong/
florida is safe
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I found it. thanks everyone!
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Quoting Jerrob:
how do you put someone on ignore?

under there post it should say

102. Jerrob 10:46 AM EDT on September 06, 2009 Hide this comment.
how do you put someone on ignore?
Action: Quote | Ignore User


just click on Ignore User
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456
it looks like the SER will rebuild in the next few days.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

do what i did, put them on ignore... how can they say
invest 95L looks like Ike.


it does, just open your eyes
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Quoting Jerrob:
how do you put someone on ignore?


copy the persons' name and then go to your blog, you should have an ignore list feature on there, for some it will say "ignore user" at the bottom of their post, but in this instance that isnt the case
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I think this will be more active then 1995

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Quoting Jerrob:

enough already!!!!

do what i did, put them on ignore... how can they say invest 95L looks like Ike.
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Quoting Jerrob:

enough already!!!!


just saying the truth
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how do you put someone on ignore?
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Hey Tampaspin,

Thank You very much.... I was wondering if the sheer would die off some and have something form off it.... But that is great news....
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Hello everyone
looks like we have some interesting stuff off of my coast...somthing to monitor for the next day or so
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Quoting goddessnoel4u:
I see 10 more name storms


enough already!!!!
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Quoting K8eCane:


that might not be good as i have seen this situation before
better if it doesnt sit too long


That is very true especially since it is sitting over the gulf stream......It does need to be watched today as conditions are marginally favorable. If the shear was to drop some conditions would be really good. So watch this today......OK gang im out for the rest of the day. Everyone have a good one.....NO FIGHTING KIDS!
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Quoting goddessnoel4u:
I see 10 more name storms


Goodbye, u have been ignored.
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Quoting taco2me61:
Hey 456 just a quick question, Do you think the blob in the SW GOM will take a opal like track across the Gulf????

Link



I dont think so, indications are high pressure will keep it there. meanwhile, a surface trough may develop over SE GOM but I dont think its related to the SW GOM area.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I see 10 more name storms

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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