The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

Share this Blog
3
+

Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 244 - 194

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tornadodude:
North Myrtle Beach, Grand Strand Airport
Lat: 33.81 Lon: -78.72 Elev: 33
Last Update on Sep 6, 11:53 am EDT

Fair

81 °F
(27 °C)
Humidity: 54 %
Wind Speed: NE 14 G 20 MPH
Barometer: 30.14" (1020.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 63 °F (17 °C)
Heat Index: 82 °F (28 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:
Radar and Satellite (Click for larger image)


well im 3 miles inland, the airport is about 1 mile inland guess thats making a difference
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All I can say is as a layman, I'm crossing my fingers for 2-3 more weeks..NWFL panhandle is pretty much done with this season by then..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I only listen to Bastardi cuz he is hot like fire
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just finished another Tropical update on our site.


Everyone but, Presslord should read this one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
North Myrtle Beach, Grand Strand Airport
Lat: 33.81 Lon: -78.72 Elev: 33
Last Update on Sep 6, 11:53 am EDT

Fair

81 °F
(27 °C)
Humidity: 54 %
Wind Speed: NE 14 G 20 MPH
Barometer: 30.14" (1020.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 63 °F (17 °C)
Heat Index: 82 °F (28 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:
Radar and Satellite (Click for larger image)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Last week I saw a presentation by the developer of this Total Precipitable Water product:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html

The cool thing about is is that it isn't from the GOES TPW sounder...its from 5 different POES sounders, and "stiched" together using GFS winds to advect each swath together. The error in sampling is surprisingly low, so it can be considered a good sample of 60N-60S TPW.

Gulf's looking moister...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kanc2001:


im in NMB and its calm as it can be although cloudy. what are you talking about?


Myrtle Beach International Airport
Lat: 33.69 Lon: -78.93 Elev: 26
Last Update on Sep 6, 11:50 am EDT

Overcast

81 °F
(27 °C)
Humidity: NA
Wind Speed: NE 6 G 23 MPH
Barometer: 30.17"
Dewpoint: NA
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
joe will u marry me?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting K8eCane:


not trying to be smart
stating fact
anybody in FLA threaten to sue NHC?


Be funny if Nature was called up as a witness, to see if it 'collaborated unfairly'.

Get the feeling it'd turn out to be a really wet court room.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting goddessnoel4u:
Bastardi is bringing sexyback


and he didnt pick you for his sidekick?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kimSCbeaches:
Live near Myrtle Beach and we are just starting to see some gusts happening and the skies are not blue anymore.... I hope this thing out there doesn't ruin our BBQ Plans :(


im in NMB and its calm as it can be although cloudy. what are you talking about?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bastardi is bringing sexyback
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bastardi is hot, he is the god of all weather men. everything he says is fact

NHC is jealous of his power.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Sunday afternoon to all Wunderground bloggers! Been a few days since the last time I've been here on the blogs. For those who do access and use the CCHS Weather Center site, it has finally been completely updated this morning.



The Atlantic basin is relatively quiet for the climatological peak of hurricane season with only two disturbances worth watching, both near Africa at this time.

Invest 95L currently has a very well-defined low-level circulation, but due to hostile wind shear (nearing 60 mph), the thunderstorms are well removed to the north from the circulation and will continue to be removed as wind shear isn't forecast to relent anytime soon. Given this hostile wind shear, Invest 95L should soon meet its demise.

Now, the strong tropical wave coming off Africa bares monitoring as conditions seem quite conducive for further development. Current CIMSS Shear Analysis shows a very strong, well developed upper level anticyclone directly over this wave providing ideal conditions aloft for development to continue with very low wind shear. In addition, according to the latest CIMSS Lower-Level Wind product, there may already exist a closed low-level circulation with this tropical wave. For a tropical wave just coming off Africa, convection is rather impressive and appears to be organizing as banding appears to be occurring as can be seen in the imagery below. In the coming days, I'm expecting this tropical wave to develop into a tropical depression and possibly even storm as the conditions are quite conducive and this already is displaying excellent organization.

Photobucket
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

???????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
210. PensacolaDoug

How does Bastardi know that NHC is not monitoring the low, and IF it becomes tropical in nature will then act.?

TAFB is not issuing forecasts on it since it is outside their area, that area is the Ocean Prediction Center. If it becomes tropical, then NHC.

a href="http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=MIMATN&max=61" target="_blank"
onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;">MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC


Bastardi sucks.He called for the gulf coast to get more storms this year. He has sued the NWS because he believes they are unfair.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Sorry about that, but it is a VERY BIG area of convection, didn't want to sight either of those lovely states!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



From Wikipedia

The Carolinas is a term used in the United States to refer collectively to the states of North and South Carolina. link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gator23:

yea and when they call things in Florida no commerce is lost there...


not trying to be smart
stating fact
anybody in FLA threaten to sue NHC?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
210. PensacolaDoug

How does Bastardi know that NHC is not monitoring the low, and IF it becomes tropical in nature will then act.?

TAFB is not issuing forecasts on it since it is outside their area, that area is the Ocean Prediction Center. If it becomes tropical, then NHC.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11156
Quoting InTheCone:
Nexsat view of the area off the coast of the um.... er.... "Carolinas" - LOL!!

Nexsat



That is imPRESSive
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:


!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


you shoulda been here earlier press...people were throwin out CAROLINAS all over the place
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting K8eCane:
no one calls anything along the southeast NC coast unless it becomes blatantly obvious that they will HAVE to
its all about commerce

yea and when they call things in Florida no commerce is lost there...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting InTheCone:
Nexsat view of the area off the coast of the um.... er.... "Carolinas" - LOL!!

Nexsat


!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting InTheCone:
Nexsat view of the area off the coast of the um.... er.... "Carolinas" - LOL!!

Nexsat


hahaha good afternoon all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Live near Myrtle Beach and we are just starting to see some gusts happening and the skies are not blue anymore.... I hope this thing out there doesn't ruin our BBQ Plans :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nexsat view of the area off the coast of the um.... er.... "Carolinas" - LOL!!

Nexsat
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
GFS are take pre-96L taking a similar path the 95L took, but mm5fsu take it crossing the Atlantic. I don't know which model I can trust?

GFS

mm5fsu

I'd trust the GFS more. Ive seen the NOGAPS do the same thing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting K8eCane:



its all politics here
big revenue to be had on Labor Day and commerce here put the fear of God into the NHC one time and the NHC listened and learned


I posted this yesterday, so I guess this what he meant

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
no one calls anything along the southeast NC coast unless it becomes blatantly obvious that they will HAVE to
its all about commerce
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's what Joe B. say this morning.


SUNDAY 8:30 AM

IS AN UN-NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE ABOUT TO CAUSE BIG PROBLEMS IN THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC STATES.

I think so. The most obvious... excessive rainfall. TPC is not acknowledging the clustering of thunderstorms and the "niche" point that is near 33 north and 77 west. The pressures are high, there is an old front in there, but there is also outflow and ridging over the top, and warm water below. This system has no choice but to warm at the center since the area in the vertical, and horizontal, where baroclinic or temperatures induced forcing is taking place is shrinking and may be gone. What is left... the more classic forcing of a tropical nature.

The low pressure should cut inside of Hatteras tomorrow and to the mouth of the Chesapeake tomorrow night. I dont think the rain amounts of over 5 inches are an exaggeration on the models, and in fact I already posted below some 10 inch amounts can occur. This IS NOT THE REMNANT OF ERIKA, but the old wave that was in the Bahamas last week now coming into the picture as it was left behind by Fridays event.

There is certainly reason for the purist and classroom tropical people to ignore this, for it is intersecting and old front. However that is a common way to develop storms and one of the way un-named systems can develop in years like this, or any year, because of dogma on the issue. Whether it can go the distance so on Labor day, there is the equal of the Christmas snowstorm ( a tropical system affecting the US... In summer that equal is the hot fourth of July) is still a verdict that is out, though I think it will be obvious tomorrow.

Speaking of heat.. the cool in the west next week at this time will be replaced by another round of heat as the ridge goes wild anew... The recurving typhoon in the far east can only mean one thing in 10 days or so in the east...

The GFS operational showing the tropical cyclone in the gulf is detecting the late season buildup of heat that has me concerned about that area for a late rally as in 2002. I felt we had the shot at the early part of the season, and this nino would actually do in the late season there.. As it stands, the Nino is not even as strong as I thought it would be in a practical sense, ( there is little SOI response, only a running 90 day near neutral, which means other factors are at work which I have been crying out about..of course with my obsession on it I sound more like the village idiot than the village crier... but they are there for those that want to look)



its all politics here
big revenue to be had on Labor Day and commerce here put the fear of God into the NHC one time and the NHC listened and learned
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning/Afternoon to all :0),
I joined "Weather Underground" in late Aug 09. I first of all want to thank Dr. Masters and all the others for being an excellent source of knowledge and others are an excellent source of entertainment! I have been a weather follower for 41 yrs, I grew up on Long Island in the 60's and 70's. What captivates me about weather is how God put together the atmosphere, weather patterns may be similar, but they're never the same.
I have never seen a major hurricane and from what I have read and seen through my life I never want to see one on the ground, although I would love to fly into a major hurricane with the Hurricane Hunters. The few small hurricanes and tropical storms I've seen have taught me a heathy respect of their power. I can remember last years Hurricane season, it produced many powerhouses, I also remember all the damage, flooding, tidal destruction and wind damage they caused also! Ike actually caused a delay in moving to the Houston Metro area! Glad I wasn't there, all the news indicated that was a bad storm for Galveston!!
I know that I am disappointed in the '09 Hurricane season has been quiet. I am thankful the storms in the Atlantic basin have done little damage and I am thankful for that. Although this is a El Nino year, I believe there will be at least 4-5 more storms between now and late October. At least 1 or 2 more hurricanes, so I have not quite given up hope yet! This year wind shear has been really bad, I gather that's the norm for a strong El Nino. I have learned alot from everyone and I'll be around lurking, learning and occassionally putting my 2 cents in from time to time.
Peace everyone,
Bob Bordonaro
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's what Joe B. say this morning.


SUNDAY 8:30 AM

IS AN UN-NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE ABOUT TO CAUSE BIG PROBLEMS IN THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC STATES.

I think so. The most obvious... excessive rainfall. TPC is not acknowledging the clustering of thunderstorms and the "niche" point that is near 33 north and 77 west. The pressures are high, there is an old front in there, but there is also outflow and ridging over the top, and warm water below. This system has no choice but to warm at the center since the area in the vertical, and horizontal, where baroclinic or temperatures induced forcing is taking place is shrinking and may be gone. What is left... the more classic forcing of a tropical nature.

The low pressure should cut inside of Hatteras tomorrow and to the mouth of the Chesapeake tomorrow night. I dont think the rain amounts of over 5 inches are an exaggeration on the models, and in fact I already posted below some 10 inch amounts can occur. This IS NOT THE REMNANT OF ERIKA, but the old wave that was in the Bahamas last week now coming into the picture as it was left behind by Fridays event.

There is certainly reason for the purist and classroom tropical people to ignore this, for it is intersecting and old front. However that is a common way to develop storms and one of the way un-named systems can develop in years like this, or any year, because of dogma on the issue. Whether it can go the distance so on Labor day, there is the equal of the Christmas snowstorm ( a tropical system affecting the US... In summer that equal is the hot fourth of July) is still a verdict that is out, though I think it will be obvious tomorrow.

Speaking of heat.. the cool in the west next week at this time will be replaced by another round of heat as the ridge goes wild anew... The recurving typhoon in the far east can only mean one thing in 10 days or so in the east...

The GFS operational showing the tropical cyclone in the gulf is detecting the late season buildup of heat that has me concerned about that area for a late rally as in 2002. I felt we had the shot at the early part of the season, and this nino would actually do in the late season there.. As it stands, the Nino is not even as strong as I thought it would be in a practical sense, ( there is little SOI response, only a running 90 day near neutral, which means other factors are at work which I have been crying out about..of course with my obsession on it I sound more like the village idiot than the village crier... but they are there for those that want to look)
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 563
GFS are taking pre-96L taking a similar path the 95L took, but mm5fsu take it crossing the Atlantic. I don't know which model I can trust?

GFS

mm5fsu
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Cool Aussie. Thanx!

no worries
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95L has a well defined LLC though convection is removed to the NE, but it appears to be on westward track for the last few hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cool Aussie. Thanx!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 563
Quoting AussieStorm:




i dont no why evere one gos too that site that navy site nevere update when it sould ues the other navy site it march more update then the maine one is and like i said 95L has been drop by the SDD site
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My Public Advisory for Dujuan 11AM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Check out the Mobile radar. Sorry no link.



Watch E2 . maybe a quick waterspout
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
95L been drop no longer see it on the SDD site

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yup Taz, maybe we will see invest 96L tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
QS is showing a low off the carolina coast. there is also indication from QS that the the ULL east of the bahamas maybe working down to the surface
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Check out the Mobile radar. Sorry no link.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 563
95L been drop no longer see it on the SDD site
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:
Wow just looked at some maps around the gomex and man things are just hostile in most locations.

Nice to see during peak.



23 am starting too think that where starting to feel some EL Nino
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
The models show an upper trough digging across the Eastern United States and secluding offshore the SE USA, that is the where the surface low develops and deepens (probably with the help of some other triggers). This setup up is highly subtropical or non tropical similar to 90L this year and Andrea 2007, among others.


well i dont know if its subtropical, nontropical,tropical,momtropical, dadtropical or pooptropical, there is something off the NC/SC coast sittin and spinnin and its pretty overcast and stormy looking here and i am gonna watch what this area does and Good Mornin PRESS
(Theres something off the CAROLINAS)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 00z CMC has 2 tropical areas of interest off the coast of the carolinas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes, tennis at the Open is amazing...Africa also very interesting! Soggy day in the Outer Banks. have a good one everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 244 - 194

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.