The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Weather456:
This should be mentioned in the 2PM TWO and become 96L on Monday if not sooner.

Before Bill emerged it was stated in the TWO, so I dont see why the NHC is holding back



Holding Back?..the frigging thing is barley off the continent.

The NHC usually gives a Wave at least a Day to see if it can transition to the Ocean environment.
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This should be mentioned in the 2PM TWO and become 96L on Monday if not sooner.

Before Bill emerged it was stated in the TWO, so I dont see why the NHC is holding back

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I seriouslty doubt one rogue nut bag will ruin this Blog as were used to assorted salted Nutz and Trolls everyday here.
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Quoting goddessnoel4u:


gotta save masters blog

bye


bye noel

yes, we must leave

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Quoting goddessnoel4u:
BEFORE I Ruin Masters blog, I WILL LEAVE. He needs the high traffic and trolls are not healthy

RIP TROLLS


gotta save masters blog

bye
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I posted this last night, but wish to do so again as it is an important read. I hope you will take a look and spread the word. Thanks.

Lake Kivu
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BEFORE I Ruin Masters blog, I WILL LEAVE. He needs the high traffic and trolls are not healthy

RIP TROLLS
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Marine Weather Discussion

FAR E ATLC...NEXT WAVE ALONG ABOUT 17W THIS AM... ESTIMATING 6 DEG PER DAY SHOULD BE ALONG 35W THU MORNING AND LIKELY HAVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG IT AXIS AT 15N-17N.


Based upon the CIMSS Low-Level Wind product linked in my post earlier, it appears to me that it could already have a surface low right now.
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Quoting SunnyDaysFla:


ROFL I think it is an age thing


no...it's an accuracy thing...way too much inaccurate info there...
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Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)


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trolls are the rats of the blog

but we are the blood, trolls can cause pages of conversation.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Marine Weather Discussion

FAR E ATLC...NEXT WAVE ALONG ABOUT 17W THIS AM... ESTIMATING 6 DEG PER DAY SHOULD BE ALONG 35W THU MORNING AND LIKELY HAVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG IT AXIS AT 15N-17N.

is the the Bastardi "storm" or somethign else?
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Quoting Patrap:


Zero Point friction by Cold,with a Dash of Electromagnetism


oh ok, thanks!
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
You're a troll.
took ya long enough

<....................troll
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so, we've had GW debate, Health Care debate, Politics debate, and now Wikipedia debate. must be a slow period in the tropics
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My last post dissapeared.
It said, "Greetings, Augfan".
So its probably no big thing LOL.
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Quoting tornadodude:
so can anybody explain the physics of this? link


Zero Point friction by Cold,with a Dash of Electromagnetism
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Marine Weather Discussion

FAR E ATLC...NEXT WAVE ALONG ABOUT 17W THIS AM... ESTIMATING 6 DEG PER DAY SHOULD BE ALONG 35W THU MORNING AND LIKELY HAVE A SURFACE LOW ALONG IT AXIS AT 15N-17N.
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Quoting Patrap:
OK, this makes sense to me - the stalled front + the new front coming in, + some ULL interaction.

But that, IIRC, was never a Twave interaction. At best there's potentially some moisture from ex-Erika being pulled in.
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so can anybody explain the physics of this? link
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Quoting presslord:



sorry...but...Wikipedia is hardly an authoritative source...

Yes it is
Link
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Quoting presslord:



sorry...but...Wikipedia is hardly an authoritative source...


oh I agree, my parents live in North Carolina, so I know where you are coming from
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I'm outta here...for a while.
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Quoting presslord:



sorry...but...Wikipedia is hardly an authoritative source...


ROFL I think it is an age thing
Member Since: September 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 611
You're a troll.
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Shucks,,everyone North and NW of Louisiana was Louisiana once..


ie: The Louisiana purchase.

But we dont claim um,neither.



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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Its always interesting to watch the blog response when JB is brought in.


he is the smarest
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best
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Its always interesting to watch the blog response when JB is brought in.
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looks like I was right last night. It sucked the remains of Erika in & now its trying to fire up! Anything left today to stop it?
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Quoting tornadodude:



From Wikipedia

The Carolinas is a term used in the United States to refer collectively to the states of North and South Carolina. link



sorry...but...Wikipedia is hardly an authoritative source...
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Joe B is of the school,if ya throw enough BS and Darts at a Map and scream Wolf long enough,something will schtick.
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Joe B. Update



SUNDAY 12:30 PM

CALL IT WHAT YOU WANT, ITS DEVELOPING A WARM CORE.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_SE/anim8vis.html

Low level circulations over 85 degree water in early September are not cold core. This is trying to go to a warm core and the sat pics are showing this.

You be the judge.

ciao for now ****
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Quoting BahaHurican:
The low pressure should cut inside of Hatteras tomorrow and to the mouth of the Chesapeake tomorrow night. I dont think the rain amounts of over 5 inches are an exaggeration on the models, and in fact I already posted below some 10 inch amounts can occur. This IS NOT THE REMNANT OF ERIKA, but the old wave that was in the Bahamas last week now coming into the picture as it was left behind by Fridays event.

What in the world is he talking about????


Hes an idiot with an axe to grind
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GOES-12 Low Cloud Product



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Quoting kimSCbeaches:
Live near Myrtle Beach and we are just starting to see some gusts happening and the skies are not blue anymore.... I hope this thing out there doesn't ruin our BBQ Plans :(

New. greetings, all.
If you live around Murrell's Inlet, south, probably OK, some clouds.
This is Wilmington Doppler:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LTX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

We had this all week but on sand, no problems.
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The low pressure should cut inside of Hatteras tomorrow and to the mouth of the Chesapeake tomorrow night. I dont think the rain amounts of over 5 inches are an exaggeration on the models, and in fact I already posted below some 10 inch amounts can occur. This IS NOT THE REMNANT OF ERIKA, but the old wave that was in the Bahamas last week now coming into the picture as it was left behind by Fridays event.

What in the world is he talking about????
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GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery

These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

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Bastardi knows all, I trust this one will be fred

he is never wrong
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Quoting goddessnoel4u:
joe will u marry me?


From Wikipedia

In 1992 at age 37, Bastardi married Jessica Jane Strunck, age 26, also a Penn State graduate. They have a son Garrett (born 1996) and a daughter Jessica (born 1998)
link
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Quoting stoormfury:
QS is showing a low off the carolina coast. there is also indication from QS that the the ULL east of the bahamas maybe working down to the surface
This is the one that's been syphoning off ex-Erika's moisture, right?

Hmm... maybe Erika is trying a center relocation of un-heard-of proportions.... lol
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Quoting fldude99:
All I can say is as a layman, I'm crossing my fingers for 2-3 more weeks..NWFL panhandle is pretty much done with this season by then..

unless somethign develops in the BOC
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Quoting goddessnoel4u:
Bastardi is bringing sexyback

I hope he takes you with him. That blob is weak and probably wont be watchedby NHC until it develops tropical characteristics. For Bastardi to refer to it as an un-named tropical cyclone is dangerous at best.
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Quoting kanc2001:


well im 3 miles inland, the airport is about 1 mile inland guess thats making a difference


yeah it would make a difference
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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