The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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344. IKE
I'm-leaving-the-blog,but-keep-coming-back-caster.

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Quoting Patrap:
And the Top of da List

,.."FLORIDA DOOMCASTERS" by the dozen...LOL

Gulf Casters have them beat 2 to 1
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gutcaster
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Quoting goddessnoel4u:
RED AT 2PM


I think I already noted that.
Thank you very much.
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CasterCaster= people who dont contribute to the blog but still call everyone else a caster

SpellCaster= Harry Potter
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338. IKE
El Nino-caster.
Bored-caster.
Give-up-on-the-season-caster.
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And the Top of da List

,.."FLORIDA DOOMCASTERS" by the dozen...LOL
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BScaster= someone who continues to post their thoughts, when evidence clearly does not show their findings or they are posting something so ridiculous it is just to get a reaction.
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we really should keep this list somewhere, all those are great additions
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
RED AT 2PM

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Quoting presslord:



sorry...but...Wikipedia is hardly an authoritative source...

TY
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Quoting gator23:

got it
Quoting tornadodude:


yup, masterscaster?

dont forget EddyCaster and DrakCaster
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Lets add another two to the list that I'm all too familiar with unfortunately.

dramacaster
impersonatocaster
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crapcaster
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WSJFV = carnagecaster
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bi-casters - downcasters who talk tropics all the time and vice versa
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Quoting IKE:


Downcaster.


yup, masterscaster?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
326. IKE
Quoting tornadodude:


hahahaha add it to the list!

wishcaster
westcaster
floridacaster
GOMcaster
fishcaster
doomcaster
NOLAcaster
carolinacaster (either state :P)
dumbcaster
bastardicaster
RIPcaster
feel free to add to these


Downcaster.
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Quoting presslord:



ooooppppsss...missed it...good job...my bad...


oh its fine, we can include it twice since they are two separate states
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


I thought i mentioned that?



ooooppppsss...missed it...good job...my bad...
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Quoting presslord:
Carolinacaster


I thought i mentioned that?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Carolinacaster
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My predictions for 2pm.

1. Our strong wave is going the be highlighted red and be 96L.
2. 95L is no more.
3. The Carolina storm might be highlighted yellow.
4. 96E is going the be a Tropical Depression.
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Quoting victoria780:
Bay of Campeche firing up>><<


campechecaster?

haha jk
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Bay of Campeche firing up>><<
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Quoting gator23:

which wsjfv the real one or the fake one?


lol...take yer pick...
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Quoting Weather456:
This should be mentioned in the 2PM TWO and become 96L on Monday if not sooner.

Before Bill emerged it was stated in the TWO, so I dont see why the NHC is holding back



This disturbance coming off Africa has a very vigorous circulation and strong inflow system as evidence by the suction action on the low level clouds surrounding the system and the banding features to the south. Would have to agree that this should definitely be mentioned at the 2PM TWO, and I would go as far as issuing a Medium Chance for this to become a tropical cyclone given the current excellent organization and favorable conditions.
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so, I am assuming he means there may be more of in interest in the GOM late in the season versus the early part of the season. Like maybe the end of September or October? (below)

The GFS operational showing the tropical cyclone in the gulf is detecting the late season buildup of heat that has me concerned about that area for a late rally as in 2002. I felt we had the shot at the early part of the season, and this nino would actually do in the late season there.. As it stands, the Nino is not even as strong as I thought it would be in a practical sense, ( there is little SOI response, only a running 90 day near neutral, which means other factors are at work which I have been crying out about..of course with my obsession on it I sound more like the village idiot than the village crier... but they are there for those that want to look)

Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
MODIS caught our African wave.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Quoting Patrap:


Holding Back?..the frigging thing is barley off the continent.

The NHC usually gives a Wave at least a Day to see if it can transition to the Ocean environment.


Really dont know why you have a problem with me becuz thats not the first time you reacted like that to one of my post.

But I am used to it, while development usually does not occur right away as you said, the NHC do mention waves before they emerge, wakes like Bill and Bertha, likely becuz they were vigorous and had ample model support.
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BBL
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Quoting gator23:

BastardiCaster! LOL


hahahaha add it to the list!

wishcaster
westcaster
floridacaster
GOMcaster
fishcaster
doomcaster
NOLAcaster
carolinacaster (either state :P)
dumbcaster
bastardicaster
RIPcaster
feel free to add to these
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Good afternoon!
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Quoting RufusBaker:
What ever comes off Africa will either get ripped apart or go north and not hit land..

got it
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What ever comes off Africa will either get ripped apart or go north and not hit land..
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Quoting presslord:



yup....we've survived WSJFV...we're pretty much bullet proof...

which wsjfv the real one or the fake one?
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Quoting presslord:


no...it's an accuracy thing...way too much inaccurate info there...


actually, its a MLA thing. wiki can be used as a source just like any other source. it must be cited as, "as cited in". its not any different than using a quotation from a newspaper or journal etc. except in how its cited.

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TPC/TAFB is currently very conservative on the system coming off of Africa. On the 48 hour surface forecast they show what appears to be a low coming onto the graphic from the east, but on the 72 hour surface forecast show it as a tropical wave.
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Wow 95 got ripped to shreds
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Quoting goddessnoel4u:
best

BastardiCaster! LOL
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Bingo!
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think Wikipedia does a great job of pulling together information from different sources, and some pages are indeed very accurate and very thorough. However, there are also many pages that are the complete opposite. I use Wikipedia a lot, but not as an authoratative source. Instead, I use it as almost a "search engine" for general facts abt a topic, which I can then google further for more specific / accurate / authoratative information.
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Quoting Patrap:


Holding Back?..the frigging thing is barley off the continent.

The NHC usually gives a Wave at least a Day to see if it can transition to the Ocean environment.


But in the past NHC has mentioned waves that haved not emerged like the Ike,Bertha ones.
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Quoting presslord:


no...it's an accuracy thing...way too much inaccurate info there...


As Stephen Fry said...

"Wiki's great to see when you died and if you're doing a ballet in China."

(Or words to that effect.)
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Quoting Patrap:
I seriouslty doubt one rogue nut bag will ruin this Blog as were used to assorted salted Nutz and Trolls everyday here.



yup....we've survived WSJFV...we're pretty much bullet proof...
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Quoting presslord:


no...it's an accuracy thing...way too much inaccurate info there...

proof?
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Blog coming to life!

I would expect a mention of the newly-emerged pre-96L at 2pm. Looking good, and likely to become at least a Tropical Depression in the not too distant future (24-48 hrs.). IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT IT IS NOT A SURE THING THAT THIS WILL GO OUT TO SEA. It is still too early to speculate on what its track and intensity would be. The area off the SE coast reminds me a bit of Chantal from 2006. This feature could become tropical/subtropical as well in the next couple of days. 96E should also become a tropical depression later today, and Linda tomorrow.
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Quoting mnborn:
looks like I was right last night. It sucked the remains of Erika in & now its trying to fire up! Anything left today to stop it?


Masters says there is 20-30 knots of shear in the area, should keep development from occurring, though I agree it may become atleast neutrally cored, or weakly warm cored. It's not uncommon for a storm to form like this, but this time shear should be too high.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think Wikipedia does a great job of pulling together information from different sources, and some pages are indeed very accurate and very thorough. However, there are also many pages that are the complete opposite. I use Wikipedia a lot, but not as an authoratative source. Instead, I use it as almost a "search engine" for general facts abt a topic, which I can then google further for more specific / accurate / authoratative information.
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Quoting gator23:

is the the Bastardi "storm" or somethign else?


Thats the system coming off of Africa.
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Quoting Weather456:
This should be mentioned in the 2PM TWO and become 96L on Monday if not sooner.

Before Bill emerged it was stated in the TWO, so I dont see why the NHC is holding back



Holding Back?..the frigging thing is barley off the continent.

The NHC usually gives a Wave at least a Day to see if it can transition to the Ocean environment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.