The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:


Downcaster.
Quoting IKE:


Downcaster.


birdcaster
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Wait what???
Why are they saying 95L is off the cost of SC?
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Quoting WXHEAD:
ignored casters and my personal favorite:
Last poster on the old blog caster.


first-on-the-new-blog-caster
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
The Bay of Campeche and SW GOM are the area's to watch next.

The Local NWS and even the Mexican MS has an eye on that Fray to be
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may have the link too the invest page Please


i had to re store my laptop to where it 1st came out last nigth and lost that site and all my links
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Quoting IKE:
Frustrated-first-time-poster-caster.


LMAO!!!
first time poster long time listner
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Quoting Ameister12:
I-can't-believe-NHC-is-still-keeping-95L highlighted-caster.


They arent, the map hasnt updated
I-can't-believe-NHC-is-still-keeping-95L highlighted-caster.
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Link

CMC keeps the system "generally off the coast of South Carolina at the moment"
as a tropical warm core,with some asymmetry at times, but little development..
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Quoting TomSal:
My first ever comment has to be this - over the years this site has seen an increase in bickering and bravado. Who cares who is right that specific time or how the NHC is doing or creating new cat calls to throw about? I am here to learn about weather, for
what it's worth. Frustrating.


great! Welcome to the blog!!! your bravado and bickering laced comment will be an excellent addition
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Quoting gator23:

its curve not recurve for something to RE curve it had to curve int he firs place casters


oops, forgot about that, cant-handle-all-the-various-casters-caster
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA...ABOUT 400
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Vindication!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is the first time they've ever differentiated the "Carolinas"
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nm...got beat
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378. IKE
Frustrated-first-time-poster-caster.
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Quoting tornadodude:
recurvecasters

its curve not recurve for something to RE curve it had to curve int he firs place casters
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F5 Caster.
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374. IKE
I-beat-you-to-it-caster.

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My first ever comment has to be this - over the years this site has seen an increase in bickering and bravado. Who cares who is right that specific time or how the NHC is doing or creating new cat calls to throw about? I am here to learn about weather, for what it's worth. Frustrating.
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recurvecasters
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
We should have invest 96L later today.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA...ABOUT 400
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
the TWO is perfect - and a medium chance too
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Beat me to it.

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367. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA...ABOUT 400
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Featured Blog casters...
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Quoting tornadodude:
florida-vs-gom-casters

JFVCasters=Dont exist
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This-is-gonna-be-another_______________ casters
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castercaster
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florida-vs-gom-casters
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
climatecasters
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And we cannot forgot some of the reasonable persons here like StormW

forecasters
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Jeff Casters!
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Quoting Ameister12:
Stratocaster
Telecaster


love those guitars,

who's-going-to-win-the-big-game-casters
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
Quoting gator23:

Beat you to it


must be an age thing ; )
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how about

TWOcasters lol
fishcasters
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Quoting presslord:
Bastardicaster

Beat you to it
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ridgecasters
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


No kidding lol, there are way more GOM doomcasters in here than floridacasters

Its not a competition. Although someone brought up good point if the blog existed after Andrew it would be very Florida heavy.
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troughcasters
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Bastardicaster
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Stratocaster
Telecaster
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ScrubCaster (wanting space shuttle launches to scrub due to weather)
NNEcaster
SWcaster
Bahamacaster
spincaster
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Quoting gator23:

Gulf Casters have them beat 2 to 1


No kidding lol, there are way more GOM doomcasters in here than floridacasters
cutandpastecaster
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344. IKE
I'm-leaving-the-blog,but-keep-coming-back-caster.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.