The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Good afternoon. Just popped in to get an update and thankfully it's a downdate. Quiet, yeah! :) Hope everyone has a great labor day spent as you like it. Will check back for new possible African swirl development later.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
09/06/2009 06:07PM 1,807 invest_DEACTIVATE_al952009.ren
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Quoting DDR:
Good afternoon all
456 any decent rain from erika?most appeared to be south of you.



we had some and while it wasnt alot, it was a start and we did get the cool down for 3 days.

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18 Z 95L Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


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439. DDR
Good afternoon all
456 any decent rain from erika?most appeared to be south of you.
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I keep on thinking that pre-96L is going to be a Bertha like storm.
Hopefully it won't be soooooooooooooooo long.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting Weather456:


you can place some confidence it going out to sea. The trough breaks down the high significantly.


that sounds like a plan.
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Quoting sfla82:
Anybody with me here in saying that this hurricane season is over!

The Hurricane Season is far from over!! There will be 4-5 more to come, at least 1 more, possibly 2 major hurricanes! SO, sit back, relax annd enjoy the show!! The SST in the Atlantic Basin are real warm, wind shear will occassionally let up now and then!! Then poof, the TROPICS come ALIVE :0)!!
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Quoting TriniGirl26:
Good Evening All...what? hurricane season over....don't make joke. I see the casters are out in full force :P

That's-true-caster.
Not the season being over but the casters.
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Best to Post in a Pro-active way to the current Info,..than to REACT to a Troll, trolling.

Seems we have Lotsa Specks and Grouper here still.
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Quoting Weather456:
trolls normally throw out their fishing lines trying to catch a bite.


baitcasters
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Quoting Relix:
Future 96L should go out to the sea if I am not wrong. Not keeping much of an eye on it here from the Antilles... but who knows =P


you can place some confidence it going out to sea. The trough breaks down the high significantly.
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..some actually take the time to respond to that Kinda BS,..

Is the season Over?

LMAO
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Good Evening All...what? hurricane season over....don't make joke. I see the casters are out in full force :P
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trolls normally throw out their fishing lines trying to catch a bite.
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18 Z 95L Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

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424. Relix
Future 96L should go out to the sea if I am not wrong. Not keeping much of an eye on it here from the Antilles... but who knows =P
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Quoting StormW:


No.
Quoting Ameister12:

No.

Twin Posts!
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Quoting sfla82:
Anybody with me here in saying that this hurricane season is over!


nope
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420. IKE
Quoting sfla82:
Anybody with me here in saying that this hurricane season is over!


You'll really be raked over the coals for that comment. It's not even the peak day yet.

Are-you-looking-for-a-response-caster?
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Quoting sfla82:
Anybody with me here in saying that this hurricane season is over!

No.
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hi-i-tink-dis-tropical-tornadic-hurricane-95L-iz-da-next-andrew-caster hehe bad slang and all

anyway 95L looks like it's taking a suicidal route. The one coming off the coast now looks impressive, but I would feel safer predicting any kind of strengthening trend if it were to go a little further south than it is. Moderate sheer is current in a position where these storms are going to have to either go through it as they progress to the west/northwest, or they are going to have to avoid it to the south. I'm not sure what models are saying, if anything, about the new wave. Does anybody else?

95L has a slight chance of surviving, and might not end up a fish afterall but it definitely has a lot of battles to fight
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Quoting Weather456:
Its September, what did you expect


Here we go.
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Anybody with me here in saying that this hurricane season is over!
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415. IKE
Should have 96L with the blob off Africa...soon.
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Inves-96L-is-imminent-caster.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Its September, what did you expect

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Quoting Tazmanian:
may have the link too the invest page Please


i had to re store my laptop to where it 1st came out last nigth and lost that site and all my links


Link
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Quoting Weather456:
modelcasters

we their downfall with Erika

I don't want to see the name "Erika" again. The storm was such a wast.
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Weather456,

I don't know why you waste your time here. Patrap was down your throat for calling the TWO about the African wave and looked what happen.

Just like when the other blogger was down your throat when you said Erika will affect the Lesser Antilles.

My friend, I suggest, you go where your respected.



I suggest you Find the ignore feature Blogger and use it..or refer to me in the First Person,,instead of a Lil "Pat" on the Back for Jr.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


No 95L is gone, poof, bye bye

area of SC is a new area, TWO map hasnt updated yet

Oh! So they are talking about the SC low.
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modelcasters

we saw their downfall with Erika
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Quoting Weather456:


It's not about being right, its about accurate information. I love what I do, not for 5 star treatment.



Seems I hit the Ulnar Nerve.

And its about the weather,..never the individual sportsfan.
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404. IKE
If the CMC were accurate we would be in the Greek alphabet now.
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CMC:
call-me-caster
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Flash Flood warning for Se La..



117
WGUS54 KLIX 061751
FFWLIX
LAC051-071-075-087-061945-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FF.W.0022.090906T1751Z-090906T1945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1251 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TIMBERLANE...HARVEY...
WESTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW ORLEANS...EAST NEW ORLEANS...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BELLE CHASSE...
WEST CENTRAL ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHALMETTE...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 1249 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM NEAR TERRYTOWN...OR NEAR
TIMBERLANE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GRETNA

THESE STORMS AROUND THE AREA HAVE A HISTORY OF DROPPING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL IN A VERY SHORT TIME FRAME WITH A FEW STREETS IN SLIDELL
FLOODING CAUSING A FEW CARS TO STALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.


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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


CMC


The ultimate doom-caster.


LMAO!!
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Quoting IKE:
Look-what-the-CMC-spins-up-in-the-GOM>>>>Link

Darn model is doing roids-caster.


CMC


The ultimate doom-caster.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Wait what???
Why are they saying 95L is off the cost of SC?


No 95L is gone, poof, bye bye

area of SC is a new area, TWO map hasnt updated yet
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Weather456,

I don't know why you waste your time here. Patrap was down your throat for calling the TWO about the African wave and looked what happen.

Just like when the other blogger was down your throat when you said Erika will affect the Lesser Antilles.

My friend, I suggest, you go where your respected.


It's not about being right, its about accurate information. I love what I do, not for 5 star treatment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Weather456,

I don't know why you waste your time here. Patrap was down your throat for calling the TWO about the African wave and looked what happen.

Just like when the other blogger was down your throat when you said Erika will affect the Lesser Antilles.

My friend, I suggest, you go where your respected.


i respect him a lot
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
396. IKE
Look-what-the-CMC-spins-up-in-the-GOM>>>>Link

Darn model is doing roids-caster.
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Quoting Progster:
Link

CMC keeps the system "generally off the coast of South Carolina at the moment"
as a tropical warm core,with some asymmetry at times, but little development..


the cmc is does nto have a good record with forecasting cyclongenesis
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Quoting IKE:


Downcaster.
Quoting IKE:


Downcaster.


birdcaster
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.