The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1794. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
IKE,

What are your thoughts?


25-30% chance of a system developing this week in the GOM. It would take a few days for it to happen.
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Quoting laflastormtracker:
1774 - Local Mets have been mentioning it here, but they are not going to go with anything til they see something physically on satellite, considering this year's hostile conditions. Should be near chaos if something would develop last minute.


I was surprised they did here already. But it's nice to know they have a clue. Well some of them. :)
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What part of the GOM, near the Boc?
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Quoting weatherblog:
Nothing is forming in the GOM. Shear is way too high. Tropical cyclones like Humberto or Claudette are pretty rare; the conditions have to be perfect or close to it. I give development chances less than 5% at the moment.



Well seeing as that has happened almost on a regular basis in the past couple years I say I disagree.
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I am considering later this week, altho there is a very small chance for today you are correct.
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Quoting iceman55:
im hearA Yellow Box in gom soon


Iceman,what are the coordinates of the area we are watching?
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Nothing is forming in the GOM. Shear is way too high. Tropical cyclones like Humberto or Claudette are pretty rare; the conditions have to be perfect or close to it. I give development chances less than 5% at the moment.

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1774 - Local Mets have been mentioning it here, but they are not going to go with anything til they see something physically on satellite, considering this year's hostile conditions. Should be near chaos if something would develop last minute.
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Quoting laflastormtracker:


Isn't this what the doctor normally says before any bad news


Lol. Exactly! Just hoping his long track record doesn't hold up. It started the night before TS Allison came ashore. Where he just shrugged it off and said it wouldn't amount to much. Sigh.
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Morning gang. Hope everyone is enjoying an extra day off.

Is the swirl over Cuba the remnants of Erika? I see sheer in the GOM is still about 30....any ideas on what will happen?
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Quoting Ameister12:
Nice bubble of convection in the GOM.

Looks like the trough of low pressure has lifted out of the GOM! What do you think about the convection flare-up in the BOC? Also the remnants of Erika is supposed to float into the GOM on Tuesday.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
Well one of our local channels has mentioned the possibility of something in the GOM. Well the other one did too. He said we're in great shape here in SE TXAnd he didn't seem to know 96l existed. Lol. Ah well. Can't have it all.

From KBMT...

In the long-range forecast, the ECMWF (the European Model) for the past day-and-a-half has been consistently developing a WEAK tropical disturbance in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. There is nothing there now and we will be closely following the evolution of the models during the next several days.



Isn't this what the doctor normally says before any bad news
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Quoting Dakster:
Hey OZ - You need to charter a boat and go into one of the storms... THAT would be incredible. (Just make sure you pick the right boat to do it in)


Maybe Storm could hook YOu up with some of his buddies that have to go after people that do really smart stuff like that...LOL
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Well one of our local channels has mentioned the possibility of something in the GOM. Well the other one did too. He said we're in great shape here in SE TX! And he didn't seem to know 96l existed. Lol. Ah well. Can't have it all.

From KBMT...

In the long-range forecast, the ECMWF (the European Model) for the past day-and-a-half has been consistently developing a WEAK tropical disturbance in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. There is nothing there now and we will be closely following the evolution of the models during the next several days.

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1773. Dakster
IKE,

What are your thoughts?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10655
1772. Dakster
Hey OZ - You need to charter a boat and go into one of the storms... THAT would be incredible. (Just make sure you pick the right boat to do it in)
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10655
1771. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
Where's IKE? He needs to watch the Erika remnants as she enters the GOM...

Any of the models develope this?


I'm around. I'm watching.
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Quoting CycloneOz:



hahahaha...yeah...

Watch out all you fishes out there!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
Quoting NWWNCAVL:


So, Fred is a Fish storm?



hahahaha...yeah...
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Tropical Update
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1767. Dakster
Where's IKE? He needs to watch the Erika remnants as she enters the GOM...

Any of the models develope this?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10655
Yabba Dabba Doo!!
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Yep...and in my original post, I knew someone would get part of it! :)

The tuna fish reference was the hard one to get, but doable! :)


So, Fred is a Fish storm?
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Quoting IKE:
From Key West morning discussion....

"SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. INITIALLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH NOW JUST EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MIGRATE
SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE KEYS TODAY. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOWER TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS PROGGED
TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD.
THIS FEATURE MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PART OF THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.
MEANWHILE AT UPPER LEVELS...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE KEYS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BY THE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF REGION.

FOR TODAY...CONTRADICTORY INDICATORS COME INTO PLAY REGARDING PRECIP
CHANCES. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST TO OUR EAST...AND NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW
SHOULD HELP TO BRING MAINLAND ACTIVITY DOWN INTO OUR AREA...PERHAPS
ALLOWING FOR CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
DRY AIR EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND PRESENT ON THE SUNDAY
EVENING KEY WEST SOUNDING WILL NEED TO MOVE AWAY OR BE MODIFIED...AND
RELATIVELY WARM/STABLE UPPER LEVELS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL NOT BE AN ENHANCING FACTOR FOR PRECIP. BEST
GUESS IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
BULK OF IT MAY NOT REACH THE KEYS UNTIL THIS EVENING...AND WILL NUDGE
POPS FOR TODAY DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 40 PERCENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NEW
ECMWF IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH A WEAK LOWER/MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION EMERGING FROM CUBA AND DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE STRAITS.
THIS SHOULD PROMOTE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
ALSO BRING ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS WELL...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITING TO OUR SOUTH ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT. WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. LIKELY POPS COULD BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT...BUT UNTIL WE
HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RATHER COMPLEX
SCENARIO...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS OF 50 PERCENT...
ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THAN USUAL.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE WEAK LOWER TO MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE PASSING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEAVING THE KEYS
WITHIN A RATHER MOIST SOUTHEAST/SOUTH FLOW REGIME. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION...PERHAPS ORIGINATING FROM
NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMING OFF CUBA...AND WILL BUMP
POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR THOSE PERIODS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT...WHILE ANOTHER MORE INTENSE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS FLORIDA STARTING
FRIDAY...WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING QUITE STRONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH NOSES INTO FLORIDA.
WILL CONTINUE WITH NEAR CLIMO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER POPS DOWN TO 30 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WHEN STRONG RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD HELP TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION VIA SUBSIDENCE."

Good morning!! EVERYBODY keep an EYE on the REMNANTS of ERIKA!!
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Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
Quoting Dakster:
CycloneOz - Bystander got it half right...


Yep...and in my original post, I knew someone would get part of it! :)

The tuna fish reference was the hard one to get, but doable! :)
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Quoting CycloneOz:
I am dedicating 96L (prematurely for sure) to Henry Corden.

Betcha no one can guess why (oh...you may get part of it...but not the whole thing! :)


Fred Flinston
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1760. Dakster
CycloneOz - Bystander got it half right...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10655
AL 96 2009090712 BEST 0 120N 219W 25 1007 DB
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Quoting CycloneOz:
I am dedicating 96L (prematurely for sure) to Henry Corden.

Betcha no one can guess why (oh...you may get part of it...but not the whole thing! :)


Time's UP!

Henry Corden was the voice for both "Fred" Flinstone and Charley the Tuna!

A NATURAL TWO-FER!
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Isn't it nice to have a nice quiet Labor Day weekend with the tropics so quiet....seems lately so many Labor Days have been filled with major storms making landfall....and our two invests are heading out to sea.....great news.....everyone have a great day off!!
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Quoting CycloneOz:
I am dedicating 96L (prematurely for sure) to Henry Corden.

Betcha no one can guess why (oh...you may get part of it...but not the whole thing! :)


"FRED" Flintstone?
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1755. WAHA
I have made a new post on my website, and I have a question on that site. Please answer it.
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Most of the models are agreeing that 96L is going to move West/WNW and then turn the the North/NW.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
I am dedicating 96L (prematurely for sure) to Henry Corden.

Betcha no one can guess why (oh...you may get part of it...but not the whole thing! :)
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Link
Focused on 96L.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
Quoting IKE:


According to the discussion from the NO office, that shortwave trough is suppose to move on east....and..."IN THE LOW LEVELS...RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA."


Makes complete sense, thanks Ike. To confirm what you've stated, I saw on The Local Forecast on TWC a forecast of ene winds overnight but ese winds during the day, very typical change-of-season-like conditions but atypical for this early part of September in LA. The "northerly" winds will last only one night with this trough.
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1749. IKE
According to the 6Z GFS the shear in the GOM should lift out by the end of the week...Link
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Looks like the CV are getting some showers

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Nice bubble of convection in the GOM.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
Morning StormW and all here.
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1745. IKE
Quoting laflastormtracker:
Tough one, Can you explain why there may be a decrease in shear in the GOM this weak, considering there is currently a shortwave trof over LA? TIA.


According to the discussion from the NO office, that shortwave trough is suppose to move on east....and..."IN THE LOW LEVELS...RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA."
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Quoting 10Speed:


My estimate is 5% at the most.


what did you expect...its the GOM, anything in the GOM automatically gets a higher chance than anywhere in the Atlantic, even if you dont like tropical systems.

Gulfcasters
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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