The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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12Z ECMWF develops weak systems in GOM and off SE coast.

Link
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
Quoting CUBWF:
Good afternoon. Can we see something try to form north of Cuba? It has a little be of everything. Little divergence, convergence, vorticity and sheer decreasing. Ike, Weather456, BAP, Stormw, or any body else, please.


Been watching the radar since this morning from here (Key West) and Cuban radar - there's been nothing suspicious going on in that view.
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Invest 96L

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96L is obviously gradually organizing.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
2009 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
96L.INVEST

East Pacific
96E.INVEST

Central Pacific

West Pacific
98W.INVEST
95W.INVEST
13W.DUJUAN

Indian Ocean
03B.THREE

Southern Hemisphere
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Theres more convection is the GOM than the Atlantic..today.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
Looking at the file, the NHC has tracked 96L since 12z.

Shows due west so far from 16W to 18 with no longitude change.
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486. CUBWF
How frequently does a hurricane doesn't hit US coast? Thank you in advance.
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looking forword too the mode runs for 96L
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96l

Link (edit- grrr thank you tinyurl)
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Quoting sfla82:
Anybody with me here in saying that this hurricane season is over!
yep it over shut down yer computers pack it in see ya in june 2010


lol
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482. IKE
Quoting CUBWF:
Good afternoon. Can we see something try to form north of Cuba? It has a little be of everything. Little divergence, convergence, vorticity and sheer decreasing. Ike, Weather456, BAP, Stormw, or any body else, please.


NOGAPS has a vorticity come up there in a few days and head toward north Florida. Not much model support.
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Quoting gator23:


great! Welcome to the blog!!! your bravado and bickering laced comment will be an excellent addition


Touche. Still find it hard to wade through all the comments, but, touche.
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we now have 96L


any word for 96E ???
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Season is not over, just not been much to watch. It's the silence, the calm before the storm.... OR there just is not going to be one... hmnn which way it will go, no one knows. The Fl pnhandle has had OCT storms before, and there were some late SEPT storms late in the 90's that hit here. I suppose recent years were so filled with storm after storm, that it makes this seem TOO quiet... If we could all escape a year without a big one, that would be good for the Gulf Coast. Five years post Ivan, you still see the scars. :(
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478. CUBWF
Thank you.
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Quoting Barbados:
When is the sub tropical ridge expected to rebuild to stop the systems from getting half way across the Atlantic then going through the weakness to the North?


2010.
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Quoting StormW:


No.
I wish, but far from over.
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06/1745 UTC 12.8N 18.8W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic
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Quoting CUBWF:
Good afternoon. Can we see something try to form north of Cuba? It has a little be of everything. Little divergence, convergence, vorticity and sheer decreasing. Ike, Weather456, BAP, Stormw, or any body else, please.


the area north of Cuba is an extension of the activity mentioned offshore South Carolina.

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When is the sub tropical ridge expected to rebuild to stop the systems from getting half way across the Atlantic then going through the weakness to the North?
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AL 96 2009090618 BEST 0 125N 180W 25 1007 DB
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Quoting hurricane23:
Please link that image...


link
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
AL, 96, 2009090618, , BEST, 0, 125N, 180W, 25, 1007
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What are the odds of the African blob hitting Atlantic City as a Cat2?
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File:invest_al962009.invest
1 KB
9/6/2009
6:24:00 PM
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467. CUBWF
Good afternoon. Can we see something try to form north of Cuba? It has a little be of everything. Little divergence, convergence, vorticity and sheer decreasing. Ike, Weather456, BAP, Stormw, or any body else, please.
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i think we are now starting to feel some of EL Nino
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Please link that image...
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This season is far from over and I feel that the US will see a land threat in late Sept and into October. Everyone says El Nino will shut the season down early.

What does early mean? To me since the season officially ends on November 30th, any year that doesnt have a storm at that point or has one in December then ends early

To me the last storm will be around in the 3rd week of October; then the season will end.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


2006.


2006
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Out of Africa

Perhaps 96L and 97L?? Page animation defaults to 2 images for me. Recommend 6 or more.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

The Hurricane Season is far from over!! There will be 4-5 more to come, at least 1 more, possibly 2 major hurricanes! SO, sit back, relax annd enjoy the show!! The SST in the Atlantic Basin are real warm, wind shear will occassionally let up now and then!! Then poof, the TROPICS come ALIVE :0)!!
Agree 100%
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Quoting sfla82:
Anybody with me here in saying that this hurricane season is over!

Wish that were true, but since we haven't reached the historical peak yet (Sept 10), I'd say no.
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459. ackee
Quoting intunewindchime:
Thankfully this has been the most dull hurricane season since , well the blog began.
agree think check back next time when LA NINA rule
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Threat wise i'd say (maybe)....This season still has a ways to go as we are about to past peak but if the upper pattern is anything like it has been it will tough to get anything on a westerly course before its quickly recurved.Models seem to be spinning up a few cv's during the next week or two but theres a pretty significant weakness out in that region which could induce a northerly component around 40-45w as the GFS seems to suggest.Infact i was looking at some GFS maps a friend posted on another forum were the 12z GFS has 100 mph winds around the tampa region at 200 mb which is extremely hostile if youre looking for homebrew. You can find the upper air GFS graphics here from the ncep site.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Not sure which one you want Taz, I posted a link in #410, here is another one you like:

Computer Hurricane Guidance



thank you
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Quoting intunewindchime:
Thankfully this has been the most dull hurricane season since , well the blog began.


2006.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
"El nino "Link is having a party ,targeting all the little swirls that try to spin in the atlantic..... yes ,yes there comes the next one TD7, "el nino" is ready",,,,,
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Thankfully this has been the most dull hurricane season since , well the blog began.
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453. ackee
I just think 2009 seasons will continue to be a year where trough rule anything that does develop wont be threat to land dont see much development either that what Iam seeing in my crystal ball please dont take me serious
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Quoting Tazmanian:
like too have the link too the invest page from noaa for both E pac and 90Ls


Not sure which one you want Taz, I posted a link in #410, here is another one you like:

Computer Hurricane Guidance
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Quoting Tazmanian:



sorry my bad for got too say Please


there ya go! just helps people stay in better moods
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting tornadodude:


please?



sorry my bad for got too say Please
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Quoting Tazmanian:
like too have the link too the invest page from noaa for both E pac and 90Ls


please?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
448. DDR
Quoting Weather456:



we had some and while it wasnt alot, it was a start and we did get the cool down for 3 days.


Alright,September is the driest month in our rainy season,so im not expecting much for at least 2 weeks.
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like too have the link too the invest page from noaa for both E pac and 90Ls
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446. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
09/06/2009 06:07PM 1,807 invest_DEACTIVATE_al952009.ren


I was thinking about asking that.

Thanks.
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Quoting Weather456:


Developing at a good clip now.
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Good afternoon. Just popped in to get an update and thankfully it's a downdate. Quiet, yeah! :) Hope everyone has a great labor day spent as you like it. Will check back for new possible African swirl development later.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.