The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Ameister12:
This is 96E not 96L.



they are so in rush to see 96L go out to sea, they are posting 96E information....not your post.
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Quoting IKE:


If you're in the central time zone the Z is 4 hours ahead of us in CDST. At 2 pm CDST, it's 1800Z.
i guess i was wrong. sorry.
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Ike is a fixture here... good blogger!
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Quoting justmehouston:
patrap,

I hope all of that movement in the GOM gives Houston some much needed rain ...but it doesnt look like it will


Maybe the H-town area will get some T-storms this afternoon and evening.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
539. CUBWF
Ike, I'm in miami, no that far from you, like 6 or 7 hrs by car, I think so. And thank you man, you'r always ready to answer questions.
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north carolina radar, zoom out to see the low

Link

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This is 96E not 96L.

Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5027
talk to you later, going to go help a friend.
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2:05 NHC TWD:

...THE ITCZ...

12N16W 12N30W 13N37W 11N42W 9N50W 7N59W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM
7N TO 14N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 25W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...ACCOMPANYING WHAT IS EXPECTED TO THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE. COMPUTER MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ABOUT 300 NM MORE TO THE WEST.
THE HURRICANE SPECIALISTS ALREADY HAVE PROCLAIMED THAT THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting CUBWF:
Ike, I'm always confused with the z time converting to our hours. Can you please tell me at what time they belong for us.
i believe it is five hours ahead of us.
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TAFB and SAB gave another T1.5 again for 96E...but the data T-numbers are 2.0 and 2.5 so we should continued organization and eventually TS Linda.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


thats 96E not 96L


I know that lol...96L should also recurve.

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13807
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


EP 96 2009090618 BEST 0 148N 1239W 25 1008 DB



thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
The Carolina low seems to be trying to wind-up into something. eh?

CVerde storms suffering from shear this year thanks to that pesky little nino kid.

So, no classic atlantic buzzsaw style 'canes lined-up in a row this year.

Oh well... smashed my finger today moving rocks from a stone wall wrecked by hurricane juan in 03.




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Thanks Ike and Mossyhead, will note that in my log.
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527. CUBWF
Thank you mossyhead, this may be one of those years. lol
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patrap,

I hope all of that movement in the GOM gives Houston some much needed rain ...but it doesnt look like it will
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wow, i was watching the system over florida yesterday and now its this. Low chance by the NHC but it has a broad surface low with convection, not too bad shear, and stalled over bath water.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep it over shut down yer computers pack it in see ya in june 2010


lol


Don't do that! We need to debate ENSO and Global Warming in the off season!
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523. IKE
Quoting CUBWF:
Ike, I'm always confused with the z time converting to our hours. Can you please tell me at what time they belong for us.


If you're in the central time zone the Z is 4 hours ahead of us in CDST. At 2 pm CDST, it's 1800Z.
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Quoting IKE:


I'm in Defuniak Springs. There here too. Usually means a change in the season.
they are about a month early, i believe the last time i seen that it became cooler earlier, we are having more cloud cover then we usually do for sept.
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My thought is if the love bugs arrival correlates to a certain time, or to a storm, I just want to keep records to see if there is any relationship between the events, or not. Should be an intersting paper in 10 years! lol
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Quoting IKE:


Link won't work. Try again.


Works for me... don't know what else to try.
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519. CUBWF
Ike, I'm always confused with the z time converting to our hours. Can you please tell me at what time they belong for us.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Another one for the dolphins...

way to go dolphins
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Quoting hurricane23:
Another one for the dolphins...



thats 96E not 96L
Quoting CUBWF:
How frequently does a hurricane doesn't hit US coast? Thank you in advance.
more than you would think. i went through year by year from the 50's and there is a lot of years with few hurricanes or tropical storms and quite a few with non of them threatening the conus.
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I did not find the ants to be of great help. lol

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Quoting Tazmanian:
we now have 96L


any word for 96E ???


EP 96 2009090618 BEST 0 148N 1239W 25 1008 DB
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513. CUBWF
Thank you docrod. I also check by the radar at k west but nothing. Just some kind of rotation, but they look at mid level.
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So far this is the perfect season--lots of stuff to learn about El Nino storm patterns, lots of interesting things to watch, but nobody in serious danger. I'm hoping 96L makes an interesting spectator sport.
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15923
510. IKE
Quoting intunewindchime:
Just a note from the upper fl gulf coast... the "love bugs" arrived early this year, by several weeks. I don't know if that is an indicator of a season shift, but I am keeping notes for future reference. Maybe the insects can tell us something about the weather that we have not been paying much attention to.


I'm in Defuniak Springs. There here too. Usually means a change in the season.
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A few forecast have shown the possibility of Double Barrled Lows,one in the GOM and the Other off the Carolina's..

Not uncommon with a Frontal Boundary and High SST's and ,Low shear
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
Tropical update
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Quoting CUBWF:
How frequently does a hurricane doesn't hit US coast? Thank you in advance.


Link

There are a fair number of pages on the web ... sure you'll get more
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

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Quoting intunewindchime:
Just a note from the upper fl gulf coast... the "love bugs" arrived early this year, by several weeks. I don't know if that is an indicator of a season shift, but I am keeping notes for future reference. Maybe the insects can tell us something about the weather that we have not been paying much attention to.

One word....ANTS.
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Ill have an update on my site by 5pm.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15923
503. IKE
Quoting CUBWF:
Thank you Ike. I'm trying to quote but I don't know what happen that I can't.


It may have more model support as of the 12Z runs...CMC and maybe the reliable ECMWF.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Another for the dolphins...




that for 96E



the ones for 96L has not been put up yet
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115255
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
96L is obviously gradually organizing.


correct

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500. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
12Z ECMWF develops weak systems in GOM and off SE coast.

Link


Link won't work. Try again.
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Just a note from the upper fl gulf coast... the "love bugs" arrived early this year, by several weeks. I don't know if that is an indicator of a season shift, but I am keeping notes for future reference. Maybe the insects can tell us something about the weather that we have not been paying much attention to.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
we now have 96L


any word for 96E ???

It's organizing.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5027
497. CUBWF
Thank you Ike. I'm trying to quote but I don't know what happen that I can't.
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Another one for the dolphins...

Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13807
deactivate 95L

ACTIVATE 96L
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12Z ECMWF develops weak systems in GOM and off SE coast.

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.