The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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091

WHXX01 KWBC 061905

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1905 UTC SUN SEP 6 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962009) 20090906 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090906 1800 090907 0600 090907 1800 090908 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.5N 18.0W 12.9N 20.9W 13.4N 24.1W 13.7N 27.5W

BAMD 12.5N 18.0W 12.7N 20.7W 13.2N 23.4W 13.9N 25.9W

BAMM 12.5N 18.0W 12.8N 20.7W 13.3N 23.5W 13.9N 26.2W

LBAR 12.5N 18.0W 12.4N 21.4W 12.7N 25.0W 13.0N 28.5W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 55KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 55KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090908 1800 090909 1800 090910 1800 090911 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.8N 31.0W 13.5N 37.0W 13.3N 38.8W 13.7N 34.9W

BAMD 14.6N 28.4W 16.7N 32.9W 19.6N 35.8W 22.1N 36.7W

BAMM 14.6N 28.9W 16.0N 34.2W 17.5N 37.2W 18.8N 36.7W

LBAR 13.8N 31.7W 15.7N 36.9W 17.6N 38.1W 22.3N 38.3W

SHIP 66KTS 82KTS 87KTS 81KTS

DSHP 66KTS 82KTS 87KTS 81KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 18.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 18KT

LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 14.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 10.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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...
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AL96 18Z


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 18.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 14.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 10.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Quoting CUBWF:
Thank you Ike. I'm trying to quote but I don't know what happen that I can't.
Click quote. U should see some text in your comment box. If not, go back and click quote again. Usually it will work on the second try. This glitch has been here since they added the quote feature.
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Quoting Patrap:



Im having a NFL opening Day Wu-Barbecue here at my Home next Sunday,NOON..details will be in my Blog come Weds.


Everyone who wants to attend is invited..just bring some Drink or a Food item and yer selves.


Patrick
i wish i could pat bet it would be a blast fer sure
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Tazmanian i agree. the baro has been dropping all day and the wind has been picking up all morn.
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Quoting Patrap:


Amtraks real cheap..and Im 10 Minutes from the NOLA station...

MAke it a weekend.


hmm, well i will def look into it,, but since im a poor college student.... haha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
Quoting Tazmanian:
we may have 97L soon off the E coast of NC most likey will be none tropic low but we could see a STS out of it
Quoting Tazmanian:
we may have 97L soon off the E coast of NC most likey will be none tropic low but we could see a STS out of it


Maybe Taz..but it dosent matter what the core is,..effects are still the same..and watch the GOM too my Brother.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
1009mb with 25kt winds.96L across the eastern atl.
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we may have 97L soon off the E coast of NC most likey will be none tropic low but we could see a STS out of it
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Quoting tornadodude:


man, i would love to come, but living in indiana puts a damper on my plan


Amtraks real cheap..and Im 10 Minutes from the NOLA station...

MAke it a weekend.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
582. IKE
12Z ECMWF...
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Quoting Patrap:



Im having a NFL opening Day Wu-Barbecue here at my Home next Sunday,NOON..details will be in my Blog come Weds.


Everyone who wants to attend is invited..just bring some Drink or a Food item and yer selves.


Patrick


man, i would love to come, but living in indiana puts a damper on my plan
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
my home wind meter topped out at 27 mph a few min ago.
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Quoting CUBWF:
I know intunewind, I'm been here since the begining, but I almost never post, Many problems with my writting, but love this place, and always enjoing the good people in here, even if I don't like the way they act, I just see their post about weather, anything else, I just ignore. But beleive me, after some time you feel people in here are like family in the distance. I would like to know so many of them in person, maybe doctor Master could do something like a conference to alow people in here to know each other, maybe that could help people to have better relation between them, just my opinion.



Im having a NFL opening Day Wu-Barbecue here at my Home next Sunday,NOON..details will be in my Blog come Weds.


Everyone who wants to attend is invited..just bring some Drink or a Food item and yer selves.


Patrick
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
Quoting islanddude:
real breezy here on the outer banks. feels like a tropical system.


yes i get back from the store and the nhc HAS A yellow circle off the CAROLINAS for a nontropical entity???
yeah ok
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Cant find it
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Quoting RufusBaker:
So will 96 stay south and head west ??

The only chance is if it's LLC pulls a Jimmy Buffett and reforms south.
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isnt 96l going to run in the same band of shear that killed off 95l and the wave before it?
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Likely become Td 7 and Fred later this week

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
Quoting RufusBaker:
So will 96 stay south and head west ??


See the posts on the last couple pages and you'll find your answer.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting RufusBaker:
So will 96 stay south and head west ??
looks like the two tone talk and walk

lol
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Link
This is the link to buoy 41013, closest to the disturbance off the S Carolina coast everyone! Winds in the 20-30KT range
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good thing it dont have time to develope.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


It'll be on this page in a few.

Thanks.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4888
Quoting Weather456:
96L

nice spinner this one is hope yer all ready for fred
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So will 96 stay south and head west ??
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The Low Level Inflow has established here and its "vary" tropical also.



Area forecast discussion...aviation update
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1231 PM CDT sun Sep 6 2009



Aviation...convection is popping up around the area again and this
will cause some problems for our taf locations throughout the afternoon
and into the overnight hours. Outside of convection it has mostly been
VFR conditions but MVFR ceilings have occurred at times. This will
continue to be the case as ceilings will likely range from 2k-3500 feet
outside of any rain. Of course ceilings and visbies will both drop with
any storm. Rain could very easily be heavy dropping visbies down
into IFR and even LIFR at times. All sites should have to deal with
at least thunderstorms in the vicinity sometime this afternoon but once we move into the evn...as
has been the case the last few nights convection should begin to
consolidate closer to the coast. With that msy and gpt could have
issues from rain showers/thunderstorms and rain much of the night but especially after 6z. Btr
and mcb could still see some issues from light br and even low
clouds.

Forecast soundings suggest low clouds possibly developing after 6/7z
maybe as low as 2-500 feet. I will just keep tempo scattered in right now
but I would not be surprised to see some broken ceilings below 1k feet at
these two sites.
/Cab/

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
Quoting Ameister12:

Link please?


It'll be on this page in a few.
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real breezy here on the outer banks. feels like a tropical system.
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Quoting islanddude:

looks like a lot of shear in the gulf and very little shear off the nc coast
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561. CUBWF
I know intunewind, I'm been here since the begining, but I almost never post, Many problems with my writting, but love this place, and always enjoing the good people in here, even if I don't like the way they act, I just see their post about weather, anything else, I just ignore. But beleive me, after some time you feel people in here are like family in the distance. I would like to know so many of them in person, maybe doctor Master could do something like a conference to alow people in here to know each other, maybe that could help people to have better relation between them, just my opinion.
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96L

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They must be getting ready to upgrade 96E (East Pacific). They ran 18Z SHIPS using OFCI (Official Track Interpolated) for track.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Link please?
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4888
Quoting CUBWF:
Where are you located mossyhead?
i am 14 miles west of ike in defuniak springs, fl.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
Quoting Patrap:
A few forecast have shown the possibility of Double Barrled Lows,one in the GOM and the Other off the Carolina's..

Not uncommon with a Frontal Bounary and High SST's and ,Low shear
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552. IKE
Quoting mossyhead:
i guess i was wrong. sorry.


You're right. It is 5 hours. SSD runs behind. Looking at Red Bay radar it's showing 1839UTC. It is 5 hours.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hey weather456, I found out something interesting--the first major hurricane that we know of to hit Georgia hit St. Kitts 5 days earlier. Don't do that! ;)


which was that?
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Local Time and UTC time are always displayed on yer Local wu-radar Page...clock

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127377
Quoting Patrap:
A few forecast have shown the possibility of Double Barrled Lows,one in the GOM and the Other off the Carolina's..

Not uncommon with a Frontal Boundary and High SST's and ,Low shear
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Should also recurve...96L...

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Quoting IKE:


If you're in the central time zone the Z is 4 hours ahead of us in CDST. At 2 pm CDST, it's 1800Z.


Hi - you should be 5 hours in daylight savings and 6 standard?? I'm 4 and 5 here in the Keys.
Link
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546. CUBWF
Where are you located mossyhead?
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Quoting Ameister12:
This is 96E not 96L.



they are so in rush to see 96L go out to sea, they are posting 96E information....not your post.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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