The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
hurricane23,

Persons have been saying it all weekend, your just a reminder and broken reminder at that.

I have been here since 2006 as my handle states but I don't have to explain that to you.
yet he has to explain to you why he posts what he posts? hmmm
There really isn't much else to post about 96L, not yet anyway.. imo
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
Oh.. haha makes sense.. Well, I'll let ya know. So far I've been ok and on WU I only have to click quote once ;)


Good Luck..Ill probably eventually get it ,but until my PC's are up and 100% running,..I'll use FF3 for now.

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dull???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115455
I'll be sure to take a Lotta Pics and a Few vids Hanna.
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640. ackee
96L another fish storm what dull season this has turn out to be
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Quoting Patrap:


None,..that cuz I havent installed it,..but I read up On some FF 3.5.2 issues.
Oh.. haha makes sense.. Well, I'll let ya know. So far I've been ok and on WU I only have to click quote once ;)
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LOL how BAMS does a 180 at 39W


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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
Bugs? ut oh. I'm using that on Mac notebook wih Thunderbird for mail. What bugs did you experience?


None,..that cuz I havent installed it,..but I read up On some FF 3.5.2 issues.
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GOES-12 GOM Low Cloud Product animated Loop
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


wow, you said that like 100 times today. That's the only thing to be said about 96L.


Your point?? Your screen name/user id resembles 2009.
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Quoting Patrap:


Nope..too many Bugs in that new One.

And I had one Wu-related Malware disaster,.Im not allowing another,..as Im on a Laptap for now
Bugs? ut oh. I'm using that on Mac notebook wih Thunderbird for mail. What bugs did you experience?
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Quoting Patrap:



Im having a NFL opening Day Wu-Barbecue here at my Home next Sunday,NOON..details will be in my Blog come Weds.


Everyone who wants to attend is invited..just bring some Drink or a Food item and yer selves.


Patrick

Opening game against Detroit...can't wait. Wish you we could head over and meet you Pat. We'll be in that direction later in the month. Take lots of Pics!
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
are you on FF 3.5.2?


Nope..too many Bugs in that new One.

And I had one Wu-related Malware disaster,.Im not allowing another,..as Im on a Laptap for now
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Quoting Patrap:


Its not that weird,Im on FF3,and with a AD Blocker Program,..one has to configure your Page scripts to get it to Quote on first click,but its always had that Double click on the quote feature for me.

are you on FF 3.5.2?
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GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery

These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

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Quoting hurricane23:


SHIPS has been atrocious...GFS developes it rather quikly which would implicate a trip out to sea without much ridgeing maintain it on a westerly course.


ALL intensity models have performed poorly this year, with the majority of storms being disorganized which may not be the case with 96L.
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96L will continue west past the CV islands but then turn towards the NW thereafter. the system will deviate between wnw and nw since the ridge breaks down and rebuilds atleast twice during the next 1-2 weeks. Full re-curvature occurs near 50-60W, north of 30N.

Full Tropical Update
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Pretty significant weakness out there should induce a recurve around 40-45w.

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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
Weird. I never have to hit it twice. I'm using Firefox browser.


Its not that weird,Im on FF3,and with a AD Blocker Program,..one has to configure your Page scripts to get it to Quote on first click,but its always had that Double click on the quote feature for me.

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Looks like increased convection over The Bahamas this afternoon. However, Nassau is still - barely - in the sunny hole. Dunno how long THAT will last... at least no rotation overhead.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22735
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
96L 18Z SHIPS up to 81 87 kt, shear not an issue on this run.


SHIPS has been atrocious...GFS developes it rather quikly which would implicate a trip out to sea without much ridgeing maintain it on a westerly course.
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Good afternoon everyone. Can anyone tell me what a 50h low is? I'm assuming it means a strong coldfront? My local NWS says the ECMWF is farthest south and west with it. So they're going with that solution. Lol. They get an A for optimism anyway. :)
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well--SHIPS does bring the shear up to 15 knots, not fatal but not helpful either---and the water temp falls along the track and the heat content is low. I think SHIPS may be optimistic.


Perhaps, but a lot can happen in that 4 day time frame after the development of an inner core. GFS shows some strong deepening.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well--SHIPS does bring the shear up to 15 knots, not fatal but not helpful either---and the water temp falls along the track and the heat content is low. I think SHIPS may be optimistic.


SHIPS do over intensify features but the GFS and ECMWF also deepens out 96L.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
there is a low pressure developing offshore but do you guys realize its tied to a frontal boundary and expected to slide NEwrd. While we cannot discount a subtropical cyclone we still cant expect a named system. It will be like 98L and ex-Danny, TS conditions but no name.

Thanks !
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
freddy is coming soon to a basin near you

Lol!
Yes it is.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5085
Quoting BahaHurican:
Click quote. U should see some text in your comment box. If not, go back and click quote again. Usually it will work on the second try. This glitch has been here since they added the quote feature.
Weird. I never have to hit it twice. I'm using Firefox browser.
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Quoting Weather456:
Ships bring 96L to 87 knots in 96 hrs


Shows some weakening after that due to some more moderate shear and SSTs below 27C.
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Ships bring 96L to 87 knots in 96 hrs
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
96L 18Z SHIPS up to 81 kt, shear not an issue on this run.


thanks
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Also, 96L has a very strong anti-cyclone over it, protecting against shear.
freddy is coming soon to a basin near you
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fogot to post the image

Quoting winter123:
isnt 96l going to run in the same band of shear that killed off 95l and the wave before it?


Some of the models have some solutions

1. the band of shear decreases

2. the band of shear acts as an outflow channel for the developing storm

3. the system tears through the shear without weakening (below) weird.

The CMC weakens the system slightly due to to shear but none of the reliable computer models weaken 96L over the next 5 days so while we cannot discount the CMC, solutions 1 and 2 seems plausible.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
605. CUBWF
Thank you so much baha. Wow, finallyyyyy!
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96L 18Z SHIPS up to 81 87 kt, shear not an issue on this run.
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Nice satellite loop of Carolina low.
Link
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5085
Quoting Weather456:


Some of the models have some solutions

1. the band of shear decreases

2. the band of shear acts as an outflow channel for the developing storm

3. the system tears through the shear without
weakening (below) weird.

The CMC weakens the system slightly due to to shear but none of the reliable computer models weaken 96L over the next 5 days so while we cannot discount the CMC, solutions 1 and 2 seems plausible.


Also, 96L has a very strong anti-cyclone over it, protecting against shear.
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there is a low pressure developing offshore but do you guys realize its tied to a frontal boundary and expected to slide NEwrd. While we cannot discount a subtropical cyclone we still cant expect a named system. It will be like 98L and ex-Danny, TS conditions but no name.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
600. CUBWF
Quoting BahaHurican:
Click quote. U should see some text in your comment box. If not, go back and click quote again. Usually it will work on the second try. This glitch has been here since they added the quote feature.


Thank you. Let see if this work
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Pressures falling off the SC coast:
Station 41013 (LLNR 815) - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy

Map data ©2009 Tele Atlas - Terms of Use
Currently selected station
Stations with recent data
Stations with no data in last 8 hours
(24 hours for tsunami stations) Disclaimer

Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
3-meter discus buoy
ARES 4.4 payload
33.436 N 77.743 W (33°26'11" N 77°44'35" W)

Site elevation: sea level
Air temp height: 4 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 5 m above site elevation
Barometer elevation: sea level
Sea temp depth: 0.6 m below site elevation
Water depth: 23.5 m
Watch circle radius: 138 yards


This new buoy position is approximately 8.22 nmi WSW of Frying Pan Shoals Light Tower.


Latest NWS Marine Forecast 1 and Latest NWS Marine Forecast 2

Important Notice to Mariners

Search And Rescue (SAR) Data

Meteorological Observations from Nearby Stations and Ships

Latest Satellite Wind Map for this Area


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at 41013 as of
(2:50 pm EDT)
1850 GMT on 09/06/2009: Unit of Measure: English Metric Time Zone: Station Local Time Greenwich Mean Time [GMT] British Summer Time [GMT+1] Eastern Greenland [GMT-1] Azores [GMT-2] Western Greenland [GMT-3] Atlantic Standard [GMT-4] US/Eastern Standard US/Central Standard US/Mountain Standard US/Pacific Standard Alaska Standard [GMT-9] Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10] Samoa Standard [GMT-11] International Date Line West [GMT-12] Western European [GMT+0] Central European [GMT+1] Eastern European [GMT+2] Moscow [GMT+3] USSR Zone 3 [GMT+4] USSR Zone 4 [GMT+5] USSR Zone 5 [GMT+6] USSR Zone 6 [GMT+7] China Coast [GMT+8] Japan Standard [GMT+9] Guam Standard [GMT+10] GMT+11 International Date Line East [GMT+12]
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.08 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.6 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 70.0 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

Previous observations
MM DD TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
kts GST
kts WVHT
ft DPD
sec APD
sec MWD PRES
in PTDY
in ATMP
°F WTMP
°F DEWP
°F SAL
psu VIS
nmi TIDE
ft
09 06 1:50 pm ENE 23.3 27.2 6.9 6 5.1 ENE 30.09 -0.01 76.1 80.6 70.9 - - -
09 06 12:50 pm ENE 23.3 27.2 6.9 6 5.0 ENE 30.10 +0.02 75.9 80.6 68.5 - - -
09 06 11:50 am ENE 23.3 27.2 6.6 6 4.9 ENE 30.11 +0.04 76.5 80.6 70.0 - - -
09 06 10:50 am ENE 23.3 29.1 - - - - 30.10 +0.05 76.5 80.6 69.1 - - -
09 06 9:50 am ENE 25.3 33.0 6.6 6 4.9 ENE 30.08 +0.02 77.5 80.8 67.5 - - -
09 06 8:50 am ENE 27.2 31.1 - - - - 30.06 +0.00 79.0 80.8 66.4 - - -
09 06 7:50 am ENE 23.3 27.2 - - - - 30.05 -0.01 78.1 80.8 70.9 - - -
09 06 6:50 am ENE 21.4 27.2 - - - - 30.06 +0.00 76.5 80.8 67.6 - - -
09 06 5:50 am ENE 19.4 23.3 4.6 5 4.8 ENE 30.07 -0.01 76.6 80.8 71.2 - - -
09 06 4:50 am ENE 15.5 21.4 - - - - 30.06 -0.04 76.5 80.8 70.2 - - -
09 06 3:50 am E 17.5 21.4 - - - - 30.06 -0.01 76.3 81.0 71.1 - - -
09 06 2:50 am ENE 15.5 19.4 5.2 5 4.8 ENE 30.08 -0.01 81.0 81.0 70.5 - - -
09 06 1:50 am ENE 15.5 17.5 5.2 6 4.7 ENE 30.10 +0.01 81.0 80.8 69.6 - - -
09 06 12:50 am ENE 19.4 21.4 4.9 7 4.6 ESE 30.07 -0.03 81.0 80.8 69.1 - - -
09 05 11:50 pm ENE 17.5 19.4 4.9 6 4.9 ENE 30.09 +0.01 81.0 80.8 68.4 - - -
09 05 10:50 pm NE 17.5 21.4 4.9 5 4.8 ENE 30.09 +0.01 81.0 80.8 66.9 - - -
09 05 9:50 pm ENE 17.5 21.4 4.9 11 4.8 SE 30.10 +0.01 80.6 80.8 68.4 - - -
09 05 8:50 pm NE 17.5 21.4 4.9 6 4.9 ENE 30.08 +0.00 80.4 80.8 68.5 - - -
09 05 7:50 pm ENE 19.4 21.4 4.9 6 4.7 ENE 30.07 -0.01 80.1 80.8 68.7 - - -
09 05 6:50 pm ENE 17.5 19.4 5.2 5 4.9 E 30.08 +0.00 79.9 81.0 68.5 - - -
09 05 5:50 pm NE 17.5 19.4 4.9 10 4.9 SE 30.07 -0.03 79.7 81.0 68.7 - - -
09 05 4:50 pm NE 15.5 19.4 4.9 11 4.8 ESE 30.08 -0.04 79.3 81.0 68.9 - - -
09 05 3:50 pm NE 15.5 19.4 4.9 7 4.8 ESE 30.09 -0.02 79.0 81.0 69.3 - - -
09 05 2:50 pm NE 15.5 19.4 4.9 11 5.1 ESE 30.10 -0.01 79.2 81.0 68.7 - - -

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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...
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
ahh a yellow circle just appeared off the coast of nc
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OuikScat from 14:08 UTC this morning



BOC NDBC Station 42055
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091

WHXX01 KWBC 061905

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1905 UTC SUN SEP 6 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962009) 20090906 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090906 1800 090907 0600 090907 1800 090908 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.5N 18.0W 12.9N 20.9W 13.4N 24.1W 13.7N 27.5W

BAMD 12.5N 18.0W 12.7N 20.7W 13.2N 23.4W 13.9N 25.9W

BAMM 12.5N 18.0W 12.8N 20.7W 13.3N 23.5W 13.9N 26.2W

LBAR 12.5N 18.0W 12.4N 21.4W 12.7N 25.0W 13.0N 28.5W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 55KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 55KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090908 1800 090909 1800 090910 1800 090911 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.8N 31.0W 13.5N 37.0W 13.3N 38.8W 13.7N 34.9W

BAMD 14.6N 28.4W 16.7N 32.9W 19.6N 35.8W 22.1N 36.7W

BAMM 14.6N 28.9W 16.0N 34.2W 17.5N 37.2W 18.8N 36.7W

LBAR 13.8N 31.7W 15.7N 36.9W 17.6N 38.1W 22.3N 38.3W

SHIP 66KTS 82KTS 87KTS 81KTS

DSHP 66KTS 82KTS 87KTS 81KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 18.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 18KT

LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 14.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 10.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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