The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Re 669.

Maybe just waiting for next update time?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Might be they question the QuikScat wind barbs since they are in rain contaminated areas and that Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB are still 1.5.

Thanks! It will be interesting to see what comes out at 5PM EDT / 2PM PDT.
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
692. jipmg
96L looking like a tropical storm.. already based on quickscat and satellite
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NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A TIGHT GRADIENT
WILL EXIST BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST OVER INLAND AREAS. THE PINCHED GRADIENT FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH JUST ALONG THE COAST DIMINISHING
INLAND TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT
HIGHER TO THE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WHERE TIGHTER GRADIENT EXISTS. GFS
WANTS TO BRING LOW FEAR BY 12Z MON WHILE
NAM SHOWSON SHORE JUST NORTH OF CAPE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH HINT OF LOW OVER CAPE
FEAR BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT WITH SLOWER SOLUTION AND
WILL KEEP WITH LOW REMAINING OFF SHORE AND LOCAL WINDS REMAINING OUT
OF THE NE-E WIND FLOW UP NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Really... I hadn't heard that. Almost sounds like a Humberto. (not, saying it will be that of course) Is that what our locals are saying? Haven't check their websites lately.


Nah. They're not saying anything as usual. Just looks like that on the models. But come to think of it Humberto did come from that direction. Or as I like to call it: the wrong way. Lol. Well lets hope if something does show up down there it doesn't develop that fast. And for God's sake don't knock out the power on opening day! Lol.
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96L looks like it might be westward traveler at least for the next few days.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Wouldn't take one long to bottom out that's for sure.
nope and its a chance of at least one popin up before its done
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Here's 96L!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
Quoting Weather456:


Expect the low pressure area to continue to develop offshore and move towards the NE of the next 2 days. the low will stall and become stationary through day 4 due to a very strong high pressure centered over Nova Scotia, 1032 mb to be exact. the low will meander or move into land through day 5-7 and beyond that a trough sweeps down, pushes the high into the ATL and the system resumes its NE motion and becomes absorbed.

The pressure gradient between the high and low pressure area will produce some gusty onshore winds for the Mid-Atlantic States as QS this morning already revealed this.



96hrs

thanks
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Quoting hurricane23:


Your point?? Your screen name/user id resembles 2009.
they come as many but are only one
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
Looks like all the models except the NOGAPS has something forming in the SW GOM. Riding the TX coast and going inland in LA. Next weekend should be interesting. Or it'll completely change by then. Stay tuned.


Really... I hadn't heard that. Almost sounds like a Humberto. (not, saying it will be that of course) Is that what our locals are saying? Haven't check their websites lately.
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Quoting LowerCal:
Any ideas on why this hasn't been named Tropical Storm Linda yet?

(click for full size image)


Might be they question the QuikScat wind barbs since they are in rain contaminated areas and that Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB are still 1.5.
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Quoting islanddude:
anybody got any new info on the low off of nc


Expect the low pressure area to continue to develop offshore and move towards the NE of the next 2 days. the low will stall and become stationary through day 4 due to a very strong high pressure centered over Nova Scotia, 1032 mb to be exact. the low will meander or move into land through day 5-7 and beyond that a trough sweeps down, pushes the high into the ATL and the system resumes its NE motion and becomes absorbed.

The pressure gradient between the high and low pressure area will produce some gusty onshore winds for the Mid-Atlantic States as QS this morning already revealed this.



96hrs

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting BahaHurican:
I was thinking earlier today that if a frontal passage could make the GOM flare the way it has today, I don't want to think abt an actual low pressure circulation.....


Wouldn't take one long to bottom out that's for sure.
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Quoting sfla82:
Anybody with me here in saying that this hurricane season is over!

StormW
No.


Hmmmm, I would say with Storm saying no, then hurricane season isn't over....

I wonder if we will have another active point at the end of the month and into October? I think some have metioned that.
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yipe! Thunder booming all a sudden. Did this yesterday. We could hear but we couldn't see it. This sounds closer. Oh well. It's 3pm time to wake up anyway. Lol.
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BRB.
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Quoting hurricanehanna:
so we have an invest labeled 96 in both Atlantic and Pacific? This could get confusing :)
96E 96L not confusing to me
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I was thinking earlier today that if a frontal passage could make the GOM flare the way it has today, I don't want to think abt an actual low pressure circulation.....
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Hey Garnsy!!
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Quoting Patrap:
OMG, The ocean is on fire!
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Re 669.

Maybe just waiting for next update time?
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Looks like all the models except the NOGAPS has something forming in the SW GOM. Riding the TX coast and going inland in LA. Next weekend should be interesting. Or it'll completely change by then. Stay tuned.
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670. ackee
I knew comment like that would have brough the blog alive and it did
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Any ideas on why this hasn't been named Tropical Storm Linda yet?

(click for full size image)
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668. JLPR
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
no news is good news?


yep xD
Well I see 95L is naked =O
the low in front of it is dying a horrible death due to wind shear and that the only decent player is the new wave

...this is an interesting September lol
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
anybody got any new info on the low off of nc
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
thanks homeless. I wondered..


;)
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Intensity is the #1 priority for research at this time, where a majority of the money is going. One of the biggest problems is objective measurements of the inner core of a system. It only happens now with Recon where they are working on getting the Doppler Radar from the plane integrated into the models for intensity.

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project

Also, I would like to see the NHC start doing track forecasts on invest systems. Currently the SHIPS uses BAMM for track most times while the system is an invest.
Maybe some kind of more sophisticated QuikSCAT that could get more detailed measurements? Maybe some kind of "robot" aircraft similar to / next generation of the ones they tried out in Noel '07?

Thanks for the link on the research. I guess some of my off-season reading will be directed that way.....
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Now back to ur regularly scheduled blob-watch.




LOL
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Quoting tropicfreak:
This blog is so quiet.
no news is good news?
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This blog is so quiet.
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Quoting ackee:
96L another fish storm what dull season this has turn out to be


Calling it already when it just emerged off africa? Geez the 2009 Hurricane season on WU will be year of the downcasters and no patience.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


lol
thanks homeless. I wondered..
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
Well there ya have it then. You think it will recurve around 40-45W though? lol


lol
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
hurricane23,

Persons have been saying it all weekend, your just a reminder and broken reminder at that.

I have been here since 2006 as my handle states but I don't have to explain that to you.
Is this like a weird conversation or what???

Seems like pple (otherwise sensible bloggers) have been nitpicking each other all day. While I'm glad to see we are not allowing nits to be all over our fellow bloggers, may I suggest we refrain from drawing blood in our attempts to remove them?

Now back to ur regularly scheduled blob-watch.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
What we really need is a new approach to intensity forecasting. It's a waste of time in so many instances to have an accurate handle on the steering influences for a TC if u can't be sure which ones it will respond to because u don't know how strong it will be. I'm no scientist, but IMO this is the next "breakthrough" discovery TC wx researchers need to be working on.


Intensity is the #1 priority for research at this time, where a majority of the money is going. One of the biggest problems is objective measurements of the inner core of a system. It only happens now with Recon where they are working on getting the Doppler Radar from the plane integrated into the models for intensity.

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project

Also, I would like to see the NHC start doing track forecasts on invest systems. Currently the SHIPS uses BAMM for track most times while the system is an invest.
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I see we have a new wave worth watching that emerged off the coast of africa. We'll just have to wait and see what happens. A low has also formed off the coast of SC with the convection N of it (presslord please note that I didn't say carolinas oops I said it lOL) But Development is unlikely there. Just summarizing.
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Quoting ackee:
96L another fish storm what dull season this has turn out to be


Bill hit Land btw, your argument is invalid.
USA isn't the only landmass, people call the 07 season a bust because the two category 5s didn't hit the US. We haven't had a single fish storm.

Ana effected the Islands and Puerto Rico.
Bill effected Bermuda and Canada.
Claudette hit Florida.
Danny effected part of the Middle Atlantic states.
Erika effected the Islands.
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
Well there ya have it then. You think it will recurve around 40-45W though? lol


it will likely turn near those longitude but re-curvature may occur near 50W. That is the change from a westerly to easterly component.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


ALL intensity models have performed poorly this year, with the majority of storms being disorganized which may not be the case with 96L.
What we really need is a new approach to intensity forecasting. It's a waste of time in so many instances to have an accurate handle on the steering influences for a TC if u can't be sure which ones it will respond to because u don't know how strong it will be. I'm no scientist, but IMO this is the next "breakthrough" discovery TC wx researchers need to be working on.
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Quoting hurricane23:
96L should develope rather nicely during the next few days.

06/1745 UTC 12.8N 18.8W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic



Sure there is...It should develope rather nicely,already up to 1.0 on sab.
Well there ya have it then. You think it will recurve around 40-45W though? lol
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Thankfully things have stablized here in southern florida for the 2nd half of labor day weekend.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
A bit longer walking time... lol. I stayed at a little hotel just a few blocks over from where Pat's house is a couple weeks before Katrina hit back in '05. I got a taxi to the hotel, but walked back to the train station. Especially w/ the help of the tram system, it was easy walking, even with a small case.

So Pat, I assume the different tram lines are up and running again.....



Yes,..all the Streetcars are up and Running,save for some Underground work on Canal Street.
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so we have an invest labeled 96 in both Atlantic and Pacific? This could get confusing :)
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Quoting ackee:
96L another fish storm what dull season this has turn out to be
ill take a dull season every year
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96L should develope rather nicely during the next few days.

06/1745 UTC 12.8N 18.8W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic

Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
yet he has to explain to you why he posts what he posts? hmmm
There really isn't much else to post about 96L, not yet anyway.. imo


Sure there is...It should develope rather nicely,already up to 1.0 on sab.
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Quoting Patrap:


Good Luck..Ill probably eventually get it ,but until my PC's are up and 100% running,..I'll use FF3 for now.

I hear ya. I do like FF better than Safari so far. Hopefully I'll stay bug free.
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Quoting Patrap:


Amtraks real cheap..and Im 10 Minutes from the NOLA station...

MAke it a weekend.
A bit longer walking time... lol. I stayed at a little hotel just a few blocks over from where Pat's house is a couple weeks before Katrina hit back in '05. I got a taxi to the hotel, but walked back to the train station. Especially w/ the help of the tram system, it was easy walking, even with a small case.

So Pat, I assume the different tram lines are up and running again.....

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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
hurricane23,

Persons have been saying it all weekend, your just a reminder and broken reminder at that.

I have been here since 2006 as my handle states but I don't have to explain that to you.
yet he has to explain to you why he posts what he posts? hmmm
There really isn't much else to post about 96L, not yet anyway.. imo
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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