The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

Share this Blog
3
+

Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 744 - 694

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

Quoting WeatherStudent:
Thanks, Keeper. What a waste of TC if it curves out to sea.



what???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115436
Quoting Weather456:


probably the hostile upper winds and lack of model support


true, very true.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks, Keeper. What a waste of TC if it curves out to sea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


The GOM is well Noted in the NHC discussion and stays under close scrutiny.

Just as Claudette fooled ALL the er,..NHC folks and many here,as they were so preoccupied with Bill,that they mostly missed that fray.



do you think a circle soon?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

AOI/XX/XX
MARK
23N/94W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55519
Quoting Weather456:


probably the hostile upper winds and lack of model support


The GOM is well Noted in the NHC discussion and stays under close scrutiny.

Just as Claudette fooled ALL the er,..NHC folks and many here,as they were so preoccupied with Bill,that they mostly missed that fray.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Quoting WeatherStudent:



Track prospects, Drak?
forward one degree from it current position
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55519
in around 7 days the high should be set up in the atlantic again and pushing anything that forms towards the west.
Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
736. JLPR
1008mb low with 96L
and the low in the Catl that was supposedly dissipated is now back at 1012mb, its alive! =P

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
735. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:
Developing tropical depression 7



I agree
its looking impressive
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting RJT185:
Three interesting areas to observe, yet I wonder why the NHC ins't excersizing more caution with the GOM. The way this season has gone, all cards are on the table.


probably the hostile upper winds and lack of model support
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Best keep a wary eye on the GOM,,..its the one set up to Bite someone,not the African Invest,nor the Atlantic Carolina AOI have a near term potential as does the BOC/GOM.





pat do you think a circle at 5?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think the CMC is showing the perfect Gulf'ester
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Three interesting areas to observe, yet I wonder why the NHC ins't excersizing more caution with the GOM. The way this season has gone, all cards are on the table.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


that was this morning, still waiting on the afternoon pass


Okay thanks! Didn't look recent to me because the Wave axis was still overland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From the PR discussion on 96L:

IMPRESSIVE WAVE THAT EXITED THE AFRICAN COAST THIS MORNING HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TC IN THE NEXT 48 HRS ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WX OTLK FROM NHC BUT PRESENCE OF STRONG
CNTRL ATLC TROUGH WILL LIKELY RECURVE ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
BEFORE IT REACHES 40W.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not sure if this is exactly recent.


that was this morning, still waiting on the afternoon pass
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


ok, can you please give me the exact link to this? I'm not sure how to find it with the one you gave me with all the different ones to click on. Thanks


On the first link where it says sea level pressure, click 850 vorticity. You can see it better. Just shows as a green blob on SLP.

On the other one it looks like an oblong circle with an L at the bottom by TX/MX border.

Lol. My scientific analysis. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
is me?, I did I just see twins appear
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not sure if this is exactly recent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What if 96L decides to stay south lol... Caios would be on this blog for sure. And just a little heads up but according to the XTRP 96L has been moving just south of due west.
Member Since: May 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
96L is an impressive wave off the African coast and conditions appear conducive for signifcant development of the system as it moves westward.



Track prospects, Drak?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A well rounded Met/Hobbyist see's all area's of potential..not just the cozy ones favored.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Developing tropical depression 7

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yep. Been sticking to it for a while now too. Except one run last night where it turned back around to the SW. Now back on track.


ok, can you please give me the exact link to this? I'm not sure how to find it with the one you gave me with all the different ones to click on. Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting laflastormtracker:
Holy Smokes The CMC shows 2 landfalls in LA and 1 on the FL panhandle w/ the same system...


Best keep a wary eye on the GOM,,..its the one set up to Bite someone,not the African Invest,nor the Atlantic Carolina AOI have a near term potential as does the BOC/GOM.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Quoting laflastormtracker:
Holy Smokes The CMC shows 2 landfalls in LA and 1 on the FL panhandle w/ the same system...


Yep. Been sticking to it for a while now too. Except one run last night where it turned back around to the SW. Now back on track.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Most models now agree on cyclogenesis offshore the SE USA.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Holy Smokes The CMC shows 2 landfalls in LA and 1 on the FL panhandle w/ the same system...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. You're welcome. Don't feel silly. You probably don't live with a crazy Cowboys fan. :) Tell ya how bad it is in this house, when hurricane season started we didn't talk about if we would get another hurricane. Just how many games we would have to watch in a motel room this year. Lol. Sad. I know. :)


ahhhh, I see. We like the Cowboys too. Although we aren't what you would call a "crazy" fan.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Opposite ends



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L is an impressive wave off the African coast and conditions appear conducive for signifcant development of the system as it moves westward.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30691
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Oh, Football...well,don't I feel silly. :)

Thanks for the links.


Lol. You're welcome. Don't feel silly. You probably don't live with a crazy Cowboys fan. :) Tell ya how bad it is in this house, when hurricane season started we didn't talk about if we would get another hurricane. Just how many games we would have to watch in a motel room this year. Lol. Sad. I know. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
358 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2009


AS OF 355 PM SUNDAY...STILL A FLUID SITUATION WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SC COAST BUT MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A
SOLUTION AND CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EARLIER TODAY. NOW
LOOKS LIKE THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE SC COAST TONIGHT
AND THEN APPROACH NC LATE MONDAY. THE LOW THEN IS FORECAST TO
TRACK JUST INLAND FROM THE NC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OFF THE
NORTH COAST LATE TUESDAY. TAKING THIS TRACK WINDS WILL VEER FROM
NE TO SE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING BACK TO THE NW AND N TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY
APPROACHES AND INTERACTS WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
FROM 25 KNOTS TONIGHT TO SE 15 TO 20 KT ON MONDAY...THE LONG
EASTERLY FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 6 FEET THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

IF THE LOW DOES MANAGE TO TRACK TO THE NORTH AS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST THEN LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT WILL BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS ANOTHER
STRONG HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE NE. IF THE LOW WOULD TAKE A MORE
SOUTHERN ROUTE THEN NC WOULD BE IN A MODERATE NE/E GRADIENT. AS IT
SITS RIGHT NOW THIS STRONGER FLOW WILL BE FORECAST JUST NORTH OF
THE NC WATERS. THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK STILL TRICKY AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED OFFSHORE
FRONT WILL EXIST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
the gulf is under too march wind shear


agreed for now, in the word of another blogger the GOM is

Nuttin' lol
the gulf is under too march wind shear
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115436
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
355 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2009

SHORT TERM /FROM 6 AM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...STATIONARY FRONT TO REMAIN STALLED JUST EAST OF
THE ILM WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL SNAKE ALONG
THIS STALLED BOUNDARY BUT REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTRARY
TO WHAT THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE. IE. GFS WANTS TO TAKE THE LOW
INLAND VCNTY CAPE FEAR MONDAY MORNING...THE NAM INLAND NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR MONDAY EVENING. DIFFICULT FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. BUT FOR
NOW...SEE NO CATALYST TO PUSH/PULL THE SFC LOW ONSHORE AND AS A
RESULT WILL MAINTAIN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS A RESULT...WILL EXTEND THE
SCA INTO MONDAY THROUGH 6 AM SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...AND 6 PM FOR NORTH
OF CAPE FEAR. FOR MONDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE FORECAST WINDS
HIER THAN WHAT EITHER GFS AND/OR THE NAM ILLUSTRATES WHICH IS THE
REASON FOR THE EXTENSION FOR THE SCA. THE HIER WINDS WILL RESULT IN
HIER LOCALLY PRODUCED SEAS WHICH MEANS WAVEWATCH3 SEAS WILL LIKELY
BE WELL UNDERDONE. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL ALSO NEED
HIGHLIGHTING MONDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES NNE ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY. TUESDAY WILL BE A DAY OF SLOWLY IMPROVING WIND
AND SEA CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN BEHIND POSSIBLY FOR FUTURE
SFC IMPULSES.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Football. And here's some links.

Link

Link


Oh, Football...well,don't I feel silly. :)

Thanks for the links.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


AOI/XX/XX
MARK
23N/94W


Wow. Looks like it wants to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


AOI/XX/XX
MARK
23N/94W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55519
Quoting druseljic:


Pat, are you seeing a possibility of something there or just sharing an impressive flare up with us? Thanks!


Both..as the Area is Prime real estate for the Peak of the season..

Best to watch any and all GOM suspect area's this time of year as proximity to High SSt's and well,once something forms in that area,it has no Place but Land to Impact thru time.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Opening day? Can you give me a link to what you saw? Thanks


Football. And here's some links.

Link

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Pat, are you seeing a possibility of something there or just sharing an impressive flare up with us? Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
698. jipmg
that thing in the gulf is going to cause so much shear in the caribbean..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:

It continues to grow and grow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Nah. They're not saying anything as usual. Just looks like that on the models. But come to think of it Humberto did come from that direction. Or as I like to call it: the wrong way. Lol. Well lets hope if something does show up down there it doesn't develop that fast. And for God's sake don't knock out the power on opening day! Lol.


Opening day? Can you give me a link to what you saw? Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Early-cycle Track & Intensity Guidance 96L

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Quoting BahaHurican:
Re 669.

Maybe just waiting for next update time?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Might be they question the QuikScat wind barbs since they are in rain contaminated areas and that Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB are still 1.5.

Thanks! It will be interesting to see what comes out at 5PM EDT / 2PM PDT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 744 - 694

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
53 °F
Mostly Cloudy