The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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80 percent of Nova Scotia had there shutters up ready for the wave action.
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Quoting jipmg:


as in 80 degree temperatures?



80 desgree for FL seens cold for them

i think
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114789
Quoting RJT185:
Three interesting areas to observe, yet I wonder why the NHC ins't excersizing more caution with the GOM. The way this season has gone, all cards are on the table.
They're prolly watching it. But nothing there just yet.
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791. jipmg
CBS4 forecasting Low 90s during that "cold snap"
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conditions at cedar island nc, wind 18 gust 27, wind tide is running about 1.5 foot above avg.
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FRED = mellissa part 2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Melissa_(2007)
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Quoting hurricane23:


You sure....Nothing out there to keep any wave on a westerly course for to long.Its been the pattern all season long with trofs, ull's and sinking air.Gotta watch out in around the tampa region for those 100 mph winds @ the 200mb per the 12z GFS. On a serious note 96L has a nice pocket of favorable upper conditions just ahead and it might develope into a cane but unfortunatly will suffer the same fate as its predecessors and move into that significant weakness that lies ahead.


unfortunately? i thought you would be glad?
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787. jipmg
Quoting Tazmanian:



looks like FL will be seeing a cold snap


as in 80 degree temperatures?
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


I can't tell about the strength either. Hopefully means it won't be much if it develops. Best I can tell around next weekend time wise. Although it looks eerily like the GOM set up right now.


well, I'm glad I was on here then because I had no idea that there may be an issue soon. wait & watch.....
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whats going on with the blobbiness SE of florida?
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Quoting IKE:


Speaking of cold...today's 6-10 day temperature outlook....




and 8-14 days....




looks like FL will be seeing a cold snap
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114789
783. JLPR
Quoting IKE:


Population of USA....300+ million in south Florida. Rest of country>>>.... 0


yep how many cows are living in NY? xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting extreme236:
From the PR discussion on 96L:

IMPRESSIVE WAVE THAT EXITED THE AFRICAN COAST THIS MORNING HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TC IN THE NEXT 48 HRS ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WX OTLK FROM NHC BUT PRESENCE OF STRONG
CNTRL ATLC TROUGH WILL LIKELY RECURVE ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
BEFORE IT REACHES 40W.


You sure....Nothing out there to keep any wave on a westerly course for to long.Its been the pattern all season long with trofs, ull's and sinking air.Gotta watch out in around the tampa region for those 100 mph winds @ the 200mb per the 12z GFS. On a serious note 96L has a nice pocket of favorable upper conditions just ahead and it might develope into a cane but unfortunatly will suffer the same fate as its predecessors and move into that significant weakness that lies ahead.
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Quoting IKE:


Population of USA....300+ million in south Florida. Rest of country>>>.... 0
Yep, that's what I'm talking about.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


maybe it was a cow before the beating lol


Thank you.

Either it affected land....or it didnt.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
i said it was a fish storm in tell it made land fall so it was hafe fish storm and hafe land falling storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114789
There's no half fish storm. Either you affected land or not, and Bill certainly did.

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Quoting serialteg:


beating up a dead horse? it looks like a cow


maybe it was a cow before the beating lol
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776. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think in WS mind if it doesn't affect S Fla they are all fish storms, especially since that is the only place people inhabit.


Population of USA....300+ million in south Florida. Rest of country>>>.... 0
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Quoting Patrap:


I tend to think the same as this Guy has no interest in the Tropics,only in yanking folks chain.

And those that keep Quoting him are the ones well...that are easily rendered in the trawl.
and thats why he posted it pat see all the attention he's getting an its exactly what he intended funny huh but its ok ws no one will make you look like a fool but yourself
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting Tazmanian:
bill was hafe fish storm hafe land falling storm with big waves that came with it
Deaths related to Bill so I don't think it was a "fish" storm.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
bill was hafe fish storm hafe land falling storm with big waves that came with it


Bill made landfall in Nova Scotia, it was certainly not a fish storm
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


ok, I see it now. Thanks! Yeah, that does look very close to home. Will definitely watch out for that. How strong is that showing? Can you tell? This is for this coming weekend? (if it were to develop)


I can't tell about the strength either. Hopefully means it won't be much if it develops. Best I can tell around next weekend time wise. Although it looks eerily like the GOM set up right now.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Were really here.

Man, your graphics and forecasting ability is pretty awesome!!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Were really here.


beating up a dead horse? it looks like a cow
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bill was hafe fish storm hafe land falling storm with big waves that came with it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114789
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
We havent had a fish storm yet this season
I think in WS mind if it doesn't affect S Fla they are all fish storms, especially since that is the only place people inhabit.
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Quoting serialteg:


you do know that the regular sea pressure is 1013mb, right :P


not when relative to its ambient pressure. For example I believe a 1014 mb low was producing gale force winds either March this year or last. Of course that was non tropical.
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765. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
curves are good ws ya really can do without the destruction even more now with the cold winter on its way


Speaking of cold...today's 6-10 day temperature outlook....




and 8-14 days....

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764. JLPR
Quoting serialteg:


you do know that the regular sea pressure is 1013mb, right :P


lol well 1mb is 1mb lol xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Were really here.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
We havent had a fish storm yet this season
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Quoting JLPR:
1008mb low with 96L
and the low in the Catl that was supposedly dissipated is now back at 1012mb, its alive! =P



you do know that the regular sea pressure is 1013mb, right :P
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


On the first link where it says sea level pressure, click 850 vorticity. You can see it better. Just shows as a green blob on SLP.

On the other one it looks like an oblong circle with an L at the bottom by TX/MX border.

Lol. My scientific analysis. :)


ok, I see it now. Thanks! Yeah, that does look very close to home. Will definitely watch out for that. How strong is that showing? Can you tell? This is for this coming weekend? (if it were to develop)
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Quoting Weather456:
WeatherStudent,

If you want to be respected here why do you post these stuff. Are you being deliberate? I'm starting to think you are actually an existing member's alter ego. If not, people are always going treat you as a joke if you continue. Please, I know your much more intelligent than this.


I tend to think the same as this Guy has no interest in the Tropics,only in yanking folks chain.

And those that keep Quoting him are the ones well...that are easily rendered in the trawl.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Most likely, but who cares, it's gonna be a fish storm.

You figured that out by yourself?
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
not evere strom will be a fish storm even bill was not a fish storm will kind of
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114789
WS ok then I challenge you

If you dont "care" about 96L, dont post about it, and go do something else

I mean really why are you here if you could care less?
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WeatherStudent,

If you want to be respected here why do you post these stuff. Are you being deliberate? I'm starting to think you are actually an existing member's alter ego. If not, people are always going treat you as a joke if you continue. Please, I know your much more intelligent than this.
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Quoting K8eCane:


do you think a circle soon?


Only if the vorticity Keeps Increasing as well as the Buoys Pressure falls continue. What MOST fail to realize,..a Good Observer trumps any Model and well..experience of ones local area's come into Play.

Most Look east 24/7 and never even Look downstream to the CONUS thru time to see How a Atlantic Interest will react to those trends downstream.


Wishcasting is a better term though.

If its east of them they consider a Fish a Threat from the Get go..if its west of their Position,,its a Non-event,

Thats why we Have a NHC,and Not a er...well, the obvious



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751. JLPR
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
curves are good ws ya really can do without the destruction even more now with the cold winter on its way


He can always go to the TC
there are boats and planes available =P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Most likely, but who cares, it's gonna be a fish storm.



we care
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114789
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Thanks, Keeper. What a waste of TC if it curves out to sea.


OR...You could say...what a waste of a perfectly good beach, city, community, house, life, if it doesn't recurve out to sea. Matter of prospective I guess.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Thanks, Keeper. What a waste of TC if it curves out to sea.
curves are good ws ya really can do without the destruction even more now with the cold winter on its way
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
746. JLPR
Quoting Tazmanian:



what???


lol I agree
WHAT? <--- but I wrote it in caps xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
740 <- Is that off the 'linas?
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Thanks, Keeper. What a waste of TC if it curves out to sea.



what???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114789

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.