The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting iceman55:
goddessnoel4u stop


i been right so far
Ana RIP
Clauddette just a tropical storm
erika rip
Bill Nothing
95 rip
96 will be rip too
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Quoting goddessnoel4u:


no, this season is over

bill was nothing


Looks like someone forgot to take their medication.. evening Taz, extreme, 456, and everyone else! 96L looks great, good conditions associated with it, but I think personally it will be effected by a weakness and head out to sea. Still, I think this one will be an impressive one to watch.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
Pple, if the person posts something u think is stupid, telling them so won't make it seem less stupid. Also the rest of us prolly already ignored or minused that person so we don't have to constantly think abt how stupid they allegedly are. So would u please just [-] and/or ignore so that the blog space can be used for more positive things.... Thanks.....

BTW, u don't have to tell a person u have them on ignore either. Just do it.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting Tazmanian:
96L will be red at 8pm
Quoting Weatherkid27:
96L looks really good... Code Red at 8 pm?

I think so.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Question:
What color do you think 96L at 8pm?

Note: We don't need to here it godness.


yellow
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Quoting Weather456:


Most models now agree on cyclogenesis offshore the SE USA but it will likely be non tropical



Expect the low pressure area to continue to develop offshore and move towards the NE of the next 2 days. the low will stall and become stationary through day 4 due to a very strong high pressure centered over Nova Scotia, 1032 mb to be exact. the low will meander or move into land through day 5-7 and beyond that a trough sweeps down, pushes the high into the ATL and the system resumes its NE motion and becomes absorbed.

The pressure gradient between the high and low pressure area will produce some gusty onshore winds for the Mid-Atlantic States as QS this morning already revealed this.



96hrs




ok thanks 456
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
96L looks really good... Code Red at 8 pm?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 15 Comments: 114
Quoting jipmg:


my jaw dropped when wilma went from a tropical storm one night to a CAT5 in the morning..


wow, that is fast...I would hate for something like that to develop in the GOM. Talk about not enough time to prepare and all those left in harms way.ughh
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96L will be red at 8pm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting Ameister12:
Question:
What color do you think 96L at 8pm?

Note: We don't need to here it godness.


Still orange or possibly red.

Everyone should put goddess on ignore anyway. They even said they were a troll themselves before.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting goddessnoel4u:
they will all die by windshare.

You're redundant.
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Question:
What color do you think 96L at 8pm?

Note: We don't need to here it godness.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Dear idiot.
Hurricane Alica was in 1983, that devastated areas of Texas. Right to the ignore list, last quote from you.


Yep. I remember that one. Slow years still have an affect on somebody. As this year has already had on some.
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they will all die by windshare.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i think 97L is on the way


no, this season is over

bill was nothing
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Quoting Tazmanian:
any ch of the NC storm be comeing 97L???


Most models now agree on cyclogenesis offshore the SE USA but it will likely be non tropical



Expect the low pressure area to continue to develop offshore and move towards the NE of the next 2 days. the low will stall and become stationary through day 4 due to a very strong high pressure centered over Nova Scotia, 1032 mb to be exact. the low will meander or move into land through day 5-7 and beyond that a trough sweeps down, pushes the high into the ATL and the system resumes its NE motion and becomes absorbed.

The pressure gradient between the high and low pressure area will produce some gusty onshore winds for the Mid-Atlantic States as QS this morning already revealed this.



96hrs

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Dear idiot.
Hurricane Alica was in 1983, that devastated areas of Texas. Right to the ignore list, last quote from you.


i know, i was there.

I was meaning the number of systems

not how bad they were

O____________O
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824. IKE
Long-term from Birmingham,AL....

"NOT ALL IS LOST AS NOW COMPUTER MODELS ARE STARTING
TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN NEXT
WEEKEND AS THEY DEVELOP A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW. IF THIS
SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY...THEN WE COULD SEE A SURFACE FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND SETTING UP POSSIBLY A MUCH DRIER
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. STILL...WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR SOME
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS IN ORDER FOR FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO
INCREASE."


And Memphis,TN.....

"FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF A BROAD H5 TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF
THE GREAT PLAINS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOW BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER. CONTINUED TO COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EITHER WAY...SOME VERY
COOL WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK."


Nashville,TN....

"DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MIDDLE TN OVER THE WEEKEND. HAVE NUDGED POPS A LITTLE HIGHER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY."



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
i think 97L is on the way
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting goddessnoel4u:


the season is over

RIP 2009

1983 part 2


Dear idiot,
Hurricane Alica was in 1983, that devastated areas of Texas. Right to the ignore list, last quote from you.
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Quoting serialteg:



it is rotating on the tpw


rotating on a stick
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Quoting FloridaTigers:
Thanks, Keeper. What a waste of TC if it curves out to sea.

WS, you are the worst poster on this blog.


not a waste of TC
but it won't get a name
so dont worry

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Station 41004
NDBC
Location: 32.501N 79.099W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 6 Sep 2009 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (30) at 23.3 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 8.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.03 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.7 F
Dew Point: 72.0 F
Water Temperature: 79.0 F
---

Station 41013
NDBC
Location: 33.436N 77.743W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 6 Sep 2009 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70) at 23.3 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (72)
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.05 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.7 F
Dew Point: 70.7 F
Water Temperature: 80.8 F
---

Station 41037
CORMP
Location: 33.991N 77.36W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 6 Sep 2009 20:00:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70) at 21.4 kt gusting to 25.3 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.11 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.9 F
Water Temperature: 81.5 F
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Quoting Tazmanian:
any ch of the NC storm be comeing 97L???


it is rotating on the tpw
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Quoting Weather456:
This blog = priceless



this blog= weather drama
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Quoting goddessnoel4u:
rip 96

you will be back on yellow tonight



Anything else to support this other than your own Trollish instinct?
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any ch of the NC storm be comeing 97L???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Thanks, Keeper. What a waste of TC if it curves out to sea.

WS, you are the worst poster on this blog.
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812. jipmg
Quoting Dakster:


Me too!

I love watching Cat 5 Hurricanes, just not when they affect people. Just like a nice volcanic eruption is pretty cool to watch, just not when it destroys a city or village.


my jaw dropped when wilma went from a tropical storm one night to a CAT5 in the morning..
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Quoting Ameister12:

And I bet you think the season is over.
*Rolls eyes*


the season is over

RIP 2009

1983 part 2
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This blog = priceless
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Quoting goddessnoel4u:
96 WILL NOT BE ANYTHING

And I bet you think the season is over.
*Rolls eyes*
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the riper are out
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting Weather456:


unfortunately? i thought you would be glad?


Gotta alot of frustrated friends i.e; storm chasers... Waiting for some footage from Jimena.
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Quoting islanddude:
conditions at cedar island nc, wind 18 gust 27, wind tide is running about 1.5 foot above avg.


VERY gusty and overcast here in Wilmington too...whats this thing doin?
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I Am a girl, always been a girl.

not a guy
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Quoting islanddude:
ill take a dull season every year


Me too!

I love watching Cat 5 Hurricanes, just not when they affect people. Just like a nice volcanic eruption is pretty cool to watch, just not when it destroys a city or village.
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Quoting JupiterFL:


Bingo


B 6
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rip 96

you will be back on yellow tonight

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Quoting goddessnoel4u:
FRED = mellissa part 2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Melissa_(2007)


i agree
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Quoting Patrap:


I tend to think the same as this Guy has no interest in the Tropics,only in yanking folks chain.

And those that keep Quoting him are the ones well...that are easily rendered in the trawl.


Bingo
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Quoting hurricane23:


You sure....Nothing out there to keep any wave on a westerly course for to long.Its been the pattern all season long with trofs, ull's and sinking air.Gotta watch out in around the tampa region for those 100 mph winds @ the 200mb per the 12z GFS. On a serious note 96L has a nice pocket of favorable upper conditions just ahead and it might develope into a cane but unfortunatly will suffer the same fate as its predecessors and move into that significant weakness that lies ahead.


That was just what PR said, not what I said. Guess they expect it to move a bit more west than some.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting BahaHurican:
They're prolly watching it. But nothing there just yet.


IT WILL BE A CAT 5

Ya betcha

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96 WILL NOT BE ANYTHING
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80 percent of Nova Scotia had there shutters up ready for the wave action.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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