The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

Share this Blog
3
+

Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 894 - 844

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

Quoting IKE:


It'll wind up being colder then that. Give it until Monday September 14th.

Here's the Lake Charles long-term from this afternoon...

"FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR A CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN...THE NEXT
FRONT LOOKS TO BE AROUND A WEEK OR SO AWAY FROM MOVING INTO THIS
REGION."


I'll take it. :) Have to unjam my windows for the first time in the season. Then I bug the crap out of everyone doing my "spring" cleaning in the fall. Lol. By time spring arrives its just too hot. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


El Nino didn't stop Andrew, Isidore, and Lili.


true but yet may be EL Nino did not come in tell later in the year
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
Quoting Dakster:
Sorry Stormchaser... I won't quote "her" again...

---

So for Weather456 and the other regular mets here, 96L, Red or dead?


Thank you.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
The Carolinas disturbance continues to gradually organize, though the circulation is still quite weak at 500 mb.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 560 Comments: 20032
Quoting Dakster:
Hey presslord, how's it going? Beer Cart run this weekend?

Seems like your weekends have been rather rainy as of late.


hey dude...no rain...and this weekend has been gloriously uneventful...hope you're well..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
Probably go red tonight and upgraded on Monday



More than likely.

I expect red by 8pm.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Hey presslord, how's it going? Beer Cart run this weekend?

Seems like your weekends have been rather rainy as of late.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting presslord:
Taz...quote should be changed to "reference post#...."



yes am with you
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
Probably go red tonight and upgraded on Monday

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Using this site to look at the WAtl, Car, GoM, and CONUS. This view can be animated w/up to 20 frames, and it has visible and WV views as well.

This is also where I get my close ups of 25N 77W from....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21654
Quoting goddessnoel4u:
Trolls are not always bad, they are the outcast of the pack. They are called control for being different. Humans are pack animals and look for the best members of the pack, the losers are pushed down and called troll because packs refuse outsiders. Making humans very wolf like. So, the trolls end up causing trouble with the pack, to get back at them. Its not nice but its the way of human nature, and heck humans are alot like wolves.
kinda sad really to realize our itelligence has been wasted on us
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting Tazmanian:



but when we have EL Nino at bay we may not have it this year but well see


El Nino didn't stop Andrew, Isidore, and Lili.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
Quoting goddessnoel4u:


yes, like alicia or hum
Wilma was Oct 2005 also.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



but when we have EL Nino at bay we may not have it this year but well see


Its impossible to say how many more storms we'll have...so theres always that chance
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Taz...quote should be changed to "reference post#...."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Taz, we need to get back into developer's blog once the season is over to make some suggestions for the blog techology for 2010.....


yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
877. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I think thats what lake Charles was trying to say this morning. They've got long term down to upper 60's at night. 90's for highs. It's a start. :)


It'll wind up being colder then that. Give it until Monday September 14th.

Here's the Lake Charles long-term from this afternoon...

"FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR A CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN...THE NEXT
FRONT LOOKS TO BE AROUND A WEEK OR SO AWAY FROM MOVING INTO THIS
REGION."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Taz, we need to get back into developer's blog once the season is over to make some suggestions for the blog techology for 2010.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21654
Sorry Stormchaser... I won't quote "her" again...

---

So for Weather456 and the other regular mets here, 96L, Red or dead?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Exactly. A late October storm could be very dangerous under the right conditions.



but when we have EL Nino at bay we may not have it this year but well see
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
i think they need too re move Ignore or re move the : Quote but we cant have both or fixs it some way
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
Quoting IKE:
And one more...Houston,Texas extended discussion....

"ANOTHER JET
STREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO CROSS THE COAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE SO IT IS A BIT HARD TO IGNORE. BOTH
MODELS DEVELOP A HUGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW DIVING INTO TEXAS AS A WEST COAST RIDGE AMPLIFIES.

TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY."


I think thats what lake Charles was trying to say this morning. They've got long term down to upper 60's at night. 90's for highs. It's a start. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting BahaHurican:
This area has also been largely undisturbed this year. If we have any serious relaxation of the shear in either GOM or WCar, we could see a serious blowup....


yes, like alicia or hum
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
This area has also been largely undisturbed this year. If we have any serious relaxation of the shear in either GOM or WCar, we could see a serious blowup....


Exactly. A late October storm could be very dangerous under the right conditions.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
TCHP in the Caribbean is comparable to 2005. Its actually higher.


2009


2005

This area has also been largely undisturbed this year. If we have any serious relaxation of the shear in either GOM or WCar, we could see a serious blowup....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21654
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Please STOP quoting it.


I do have feelings, and I am not a it.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


Prove it... Anyone can "say" they are "anything" here. Not that I care either way.


doesn't matter, just the internet

believe what you want

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


Prove it... Anyone can "say" they are "anything" here. Not that I care either way.


Please STOP quoting it.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Florida will see the arrival of an early dry season.


i hoping this will be the same for CA if we can get a strart on the early wet season.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
Quoting goddessnoel4u:
I Am a girl, always been a girl.

not a guy


Prove it... Anyone can "say" they are "anything" here. Not that I care either way.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
I had enough from this whole, "The season is other" stuff. Ignoring Goddess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Reminder.

Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

Lots of other stuff to talk abt.


i am talking about tropical weather

I just dont think their will be nothing else


and it makes me a troll to not want a cat 5
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Great Sat. loop of storm off the East Coast

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Reminder.

Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

Lots of other stuff to talk abt.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21654
Quoting Tazmanian:



looks like FL will be seeing a cold snap


Yeah, the high will only be 90 during the day... I hear the low at night will be 88. I'll be sure to break out the sweaters and turn on the heater.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Quoting will40:
I think anybody that quotes a troll is just as bad as troll enuff said


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening Kyle
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think anybody that quotes a troll is just as bad as troll enuff said
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Patrap, thanks for answering! I just love watching nature and cyclogenesis fascinates me. Will keep an eye on it as well as the other AOI's!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
853. IKE
Quoting weatherbro:


Then that means Florida will see the arrival of an early dry season.


Yup...it's gonna happen. May take until September 14-15.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Looks like someone forgot to take their medication.. evening Taz, extreme, 456, and everyone else! 96L looks great, good conditions associated with it, but I think personally it will be effected by a weakness and head out to sea. Still, I think this one will be an impressive one to watch.




hello HurricaneKyle
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
Quoting IKE:


Amen. He is on my ignore feature.


I am a she,


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Long-term from Birmingham,AL....

"NOT ALL IS LOST AS NOW COMPUTER MODELS ARE STARTING
TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN NEXT
WEEKEND AS THEY DEVELOP A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW. IF THIS
SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY...THEN WE COULD SEE A SURFACE FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND SETTING UP POSSIBLY A MUCH DRIER
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. STILL...WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR SOME
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS IN ORDER FOR FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO
INCREASE."


Then that means Florida will see the arrival of an early dry season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Looks like someone forgot to take their medication.. evening Taz, extreme, 456, and everyone else! 96L looks great, good conditions associated with it, but I think personally it will be effected by a weakness and head out to sea. Still, I think this one will be an impressive one to watch.


yes, didn't take my normal pills

a yellow season
doesn't stress me out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Much of the intensity guidance bring 96L to a hurricane but then it levels off at the end of the cycle

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
847. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Pple, if the person posts something u think is stupid, telling them so won't make it seem less stupid. Also the rest of us prolly already ignored or minused that person so we don't have to constantly think abt how stupid they allegedly are. So would u please just [-] and/or ignore so that the blog space can be used for more positive things.... Thanks.....

BTW, u don't have to tell a person u have them on ignore either. Just do it.


Amen. He is on my ignore feature.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
TCHP in the Caribbean is comparable to 2005. Its actually higher.


2009


2005

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
845. IKE
And one more...Houston,Texas extended discussion....

"ANOTHER JET
STREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO CROSS THE COAST ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE SO IT IS A BIT HARD TO IGNORE. BOTH
MODELS DEVELOP A HUGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW DIVING INTO TEXAS AS A WEST COAST RIDGE AMPLIFIES.

TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting iceman55:
goddessnoel4u stop


i been right so far
Ana RIP
Clauddette just a tropical storm
erika rip
Bill Nothing
95 rip
96 will be rip too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 894 - 844

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.