The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


1....2....3....4....5...I give up.


WhadI do, screw up?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
941. JLPR
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



"Based on ship reports and surface reports"

Yes I see that.

I expect a TD in about 24 hours.


seems reasonable

at least we get some entertainment in the Atlantic xD
I just hope it doesn't put the CVs in danger
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Reposts

The models show an upper trough digging across the Eastern United States and secluding offshore the SE USA, that is the where the surface low develops and deepens (probably with the help of some other triggers). This setup up is highly subtropical or non tropical similar to 90L this year and Andrea 2007, among others.

Most models now agree on cyclogenesis offshore the SE USA but it will likely be non tropical



Expect the low pressure area to continue to develop offshore and move towards the NE of the next 2 days. the low will stall and become stationary through day 4 due to a very strong high pressure centered over Nova Scotia, 1032 mb to be exact. the low will meander or move into land through day 5-7 and beyond that a trough sweeps down, pushes the high into the ATL and the system resumes its NE motion and becomes absorbed.

The pressure gradient between the high and low pressure area will produce some gusty onshore winds for the Mid-Atlantic States as QS this morning already revealed this.



96hrs

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting mikatnight:


1....2....3....4....5...I give up.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting JLPR:


not only ships
surface observations and buoys too xD
96L is a TD on the making



"Based on ship reports and surface reports"

Yes I see that.

I expect a TD in about 24 hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
NEXRAD Radar
Brownsville, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting Weather456:
96L definitely has something near the sfc but as to how define or the winds at the center only sat images can provide that until QS becomes available.



Exactly what I was looking at. Should be an interesting TWO.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
933. JLPR
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Based on ship reports and surface reports I see the beginnings of a surface circulation with 96L.


not only ships
surface observations and buoys too xD
96L is a TD on the making
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting KoritheMan:


I reiterate what I said to Baha. >_>


I think you quoted the wrong post. lol
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
96L definitely has something near the sfc but as to how define or the winds at the center only sat images can provide that until QS becomes available.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting Patrap:






Hi Patrap,

What is your take on the Gulf? Think this may be an issue as one of the models suggested?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Why yes it does.



I reiterate what I said to Baha. >_>
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
Quoting KoritheMan:


Doesn't a subtropical cyclone have to be connected , or at least interact with, an upper-level low, in order to form?

Though I suppose the strong shear would aid in baroclinic development.


Why yes it does.

ULL
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting BahaHurican:
The measure of an el Nino's effect is not in the storms that did form, but in those that DIDN'T. Considering that Andrew was the only major hurricane and one of only six tropical storms, u can begin to imagine the effects. Plus practically nothing was able to make it in the CAR or GOM that year. Andrew was the only system to form south of 20N and the only one in the GOM that year.

That's the kind of thing one is considering when thinking abt El Nino effects. Not whether any major storms developed, but considering how few actually did and which areas are more likely to be affectd.


Point taken.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
WV View of the WATL ULL:

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



Something subtropical isnt out of the question. Though im not expecting development.


Doesn't a subtropical cyclone have to be connected , or at least interact with, an upper-level low, in order to form?

Though I suppose the strong shear would aid in baroclinic development.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
Quoting goddessnoel4u:


i am talking about tropical weather

I just dont think their will be nothing else


and it makes me a troll to not want a cat 5

Does anyone know what a 115MPH wind sounds like? Go rent a convertible put the top down, find a long straight road about 15 mi long, safely accelerate to 115 MPH, NOTICE THE WIND NOISE ALL OF A SUDDEN??? Imagine, being in a hurricane with winds of 160MPH!! NOTHING IS STANDING and you're dead, impaled with a a small piece of wood through you head!! ANYONE who wants to see a CAT 5 hit a populated region REALLY NEEDS JESUS!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Wow in that satellite image of 96L, it could be upgraded tonight to a TD. Also where does one find that image posted above? Also what time was that image?


Satellite images of 96L.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting hydrus:
lol...in a General..E-WE direction.


then it will stall for a day before resuming a NNE-SSW motion lol
Wow in that satellite image of 96L, it could be upgraded tonight to a TD. Also where does one find that image posted above? Also what time was that image?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


No, it's just that the El Nino of 1992 and 2002 were weak, similar to this year's.
The measure of an el Nino's effect is not in the storms that did form, but in those that DIDN'T. Considering that Andrew was the only major hurricane and one of only six tropical storms, u can begin to imagine the effects. Plus practically nothing was able to make it in the CAR or GOM that year. Andrew was the only system to form south of 20N and the only one in the GOM that year.

That's the kind of thing one is considering when thinking abt El Nino effects. Not whether any major storms developed, but considering how few actually did and which areas are more likely to be affectd.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Hi All…
Haven’t checked in for a couple of days; just ran through the models on the FSU page – curious that the “mm5fsu-gfs” and the “mm5fsu-merge” both (00z) develop storms coming off Africa (with what looks like the high building back in) and on the USEC, as both models seem to have been rather conservative thus far this year. The cmc (12z) as usual appears too eager, showing storms in the GOM, USEC, and Africa.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


It goes in a general North-North South Direction..
lol...in a General..E-WE direction.
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Based on ship reports and surface reports I see the beginnings of a surface circulation with 96L.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
CMC and Gfs bring it ashore but what do they know lol
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Supposed to go NE Press
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Quoting weatherblog:


That's scary considering Wilma formed in that!


Indeed. Though 2005 had a huge spike in TCHP through late September-late October. Not sure if we'll see that as well.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
TCHP in the Caribbean is comparable to 2005. Its actually higher.


2009


2005



That's scary considering Wilma formed in that!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
...so...What becomes of the Carolina Blob? Does it come ashore, go north....south....east?


It goes in a general North-North South Direction..
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
Quoting KoritheMan:


Upper-level winds will probably be too prohibitive to allow development. Models indicate 30 kt or more of southwesterly shear over the system throughout the period.



Something subtropical isnt out of the question. Though im not expecting development.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
...so...What becomes of the Carolina Blob? Does it come ashore, go north....south....east?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
905. jipmg
I wonder what will happen when that GOM moisture mixes in with the Upper low over North western cuba.. I see alot of rain for FL
Quoting Weather456:
Probably go red tonight and upgraded on Monday


I have to agree 100% on that.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082


Here's 1 of the series of vigorous trough sweeping down to break down the ridge that help pull 96L more towards the N

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting KoritheMan:


No, it's just that the El Nino of 1992 and 2002 were weak, similar to this year's.


i see
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting goddessnoel4u:
bye all you little wolves, it is fun, but this season is totally boring. So, gonna go play my videos games haha. Enjoy your nothingness season.


It's SHEEP not wolves! Geesh. Get it right. And you take care now. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



Its a hybrid system so development should be slow. It might become an invest tomorrow though.


Upper-level winds will probably be too prohibitive to allow development. Models indicate 30 kt or more of southwesterly shear over the system throughout the period.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
Quoting Tazmanian:


true but yet may be EL Nino did not come in tell later in the year


No, it's just that the El Nino of 1992 and 2002 were weak, similar to this year's.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
Quoting KoritheMan:
The Carolinas disturbance continues to gradually organize, though the circulation is still quite weak at 500 mb.



Its a hybrid system so development should be slow. It might become an invest tomorrow though.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950


AOI/XX/XX
MARK
23N/94W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56048
Thanks guys/gals. Now I know the skinny on 96L.

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10787
Quoting IKE:


It'll wind up being colder then that. Give it until Monday September 14th.

Here's the Lake Charles long-term from this afternoon...

"FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR A CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN...THE NEXT
FRONT LOOKS TO BE AROUND A WEEK OR SO AWAY FROM MOVING INTO THIS
REGION."


I'll take it. :) Have to unjam my windows for the first time in the season. Then I bug the crap out of everyone doing my "spring" cleaning in the fall. Lol. By time spring arrives its just too hot. :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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