The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

Share this Blog
3
+

Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1844 - 1794

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

Quoting AllStar17:
The BOC needs to be watched because it is known for quickly spinning up storms (i.e. Marco, Bret, etc.)

Yes, that is very true, watching the satellite loops of the BOC, convection is continuing and spreading to the N. CIMSS maps shows shear is very low, an anti=cyclone is near/moving over the area and potentional for divergence is also good!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
here is the Visible radar in the GOM and can see something building out there..... I sure don't want it too because I come on call this weekend and it will be Busy if you know what i mean....

Link
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3173
I'll be back later. Everybody enjoy your day. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I would like to see that southern band try to wrap around the eastern side to signify a strengthening system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Disregard my last post.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
227 AM EDT MON SEP 07 2009


GULF COAST/FLORIDA...
WHILE THE NAM HAS SHOWN REASONABLE CONTINUITY ALOFT WITH THIS
FEATURE DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...THE SURFACE LOW IT SPAWNS
NEAR THE NORTHERN CUBAN COAST WHICH MOVES TOWARDS FLORIDA IN A FEW
DAYS IS NEW ON THE 00Z RUN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY
OVER THIS REGION DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN
REASONABLE CONTINUITY ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE
DAYS OF RUNS...THOUGH ITS 12Z RUN SHOWED A NEW SURFACE LOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COMPARING THE
GUIDANCE...THE NAM IS AN EASTWARD/DEEP OUTLIER WITH THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WILL PREFER A 12Z OR 00Z UKMET/12Z
OR 00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE HERE WHICH LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 12Z
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LOW ENVELOPE. ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...THE 12Z CANADIAN USED ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TOWARDS THE REGION TO SPIN UP A STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR
LOUISIANA...WHICH HAS VIRTUALLY NO 12Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT OR SUPPORT FROM ITS OWN 00Z RUN. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH
THE WEAKER CONSENSUS ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.


So for all those who THINK/THOUGHT the season is OVER, here's a few items to keep an eye on!! P.S. the season is NOT finished YET!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Out for now, Lirk off and on today, Npw for the grill dogs burgers pato sald and family.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting dcoaster:


No way that is where the center is. Models already would be way off if the center is there....which I definitely think it is not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting dcoaster:


Thats an old center position.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Thanks Homeless - I appreciate the info. :)


You're welcome. Glad I could help.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The BOC needs to be watched because it is known for quickly spinning up storms (i.e. Marco, Bret, etc.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1829. lavinia
Thanks taco and Autistic2. That's what I was wondering. How far down you'd feel the affects. I was thinking of submarines.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
Good morning!
Nearly all of the GFS ensemble members take 96L NW, but then back WSW or SW. And, after Erika, who knows with any of the models.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS:
If a system comes near the island if it is very strong might survive the high shear in the east caribbean; tiny, Anna, Danny and Erika coudn't.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Morning Hanna. Someone posted this earlier. There are two different lows the models are talking about. One around mid week. The other in the NW GOM by the weekend. Hope this helps. :)

Two seperate features:



MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
227 AM EDT MON SEP 07 2009


GULF COAST/FLORIDA...
WHILE THE NAM HAS SHOWN REASONABLE CONTINUITY ALOFT WITH THIS
FEATURE DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...THE SURFACE LOW IT SPAWNS
NEAR THE NORTHERN CUBAN COAST WHICH MOVES TOWARDS FLORIDA IN A FEW
DAYS IS NEW ON THE 00Z RUN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY
OVER THIS REGION DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN
REASONABLE CONTINUITY ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE
DAYS OF RUNS...THOUGH ITS 12Z RUN SHOWED A NEW SURFACE LOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COMPARING THE
GUIDANCE...THE NAM IS AN EASTWARD/DEEP OUTLIER WITH THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WILL PREFER A 12Z OR 00Z UKMET/12Z
OR 00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE HERE WHICH LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 12Z
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LOW ENVELOPE. ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...THE 12Z CANADIAN USED ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TOWARDS THE REGION TO SPIN UP A STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR
LOUISIANA...WHICH HAS VIRTUALLY NO 12Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT OR SUPPORT FROM ITS OWN 00Z RUN. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH
THE WEAKER CONSENSUS ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.

Thanks Homeless - I appreciate the info. :)
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


T# at 2.0-2.5? Expect an upgrade soon.


Yeah, but the SAB is still only giving a T1.0, suggesting the center fix isnt exactly certain yet. Probably nothing till about 5.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Autistic2:


I was in the USCG for 6 years. We went straight through the eye wall of David on a 378 foot AWHEC. A Liberian freighter issued a mayday. Unlike local emergency services you will NEVER hear the USCG say the weather is to bad to go out.

We had a saying. "You have to go out.you don't have to come back".

Well, I'm glad you survived the encounter! Maybe you can knock a lil' bit of sense into people who want to see or venture into a major hurricane!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lavinia:
Good morning and happy Labour Day everyone.
Does anyone know what depth of the water a hurricane affects?


My brother in law was on a Nuclear attack sub. He told me that they went under a cat 5 and had 35 degree rolls at 500 feet. 15 degree rolls at 800
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This very well could be Tropical Storm Fred before the Day ends.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1822. Dakster
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFL, we don't get paid to come back :)


Orca - You were in the USCG? or the Canadian equivalent?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehanna:


we'll wait and see then. Thanks


Morning Hanna. Someone posted this earlier. There are two different lows the models are talking about. One around mid week. The other in the NW GOM by the weekend. Hope this helps. :)

Two seperate features:



MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
227 AM EDT MON SEP 07 2009


GULF COAST/FLORIDA...
WHILE THE NAM HAS SHOWN REASONABLE CONTINUITY ALOFT WITH THIS
FEATURE DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...THE SURFACE LOW IT SPAWNS
NEAR THE NORTHERN CUBAN COAST WHICH MOVES TOWARDS FLORIDA IN A FEW
DAYS IS NEW ON THE 00Z RUN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY
OVER THIS REGION DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN
REASONABLE CONTINUITY ALOFT WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE
DAYS OF RUNS...THOUGH ITS 12Z RUN SHOWED A NEW SURFACE LOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN COMPARING THE
GUIDANCE...THE NAM IS AN EASTWARD/DEEP OUTLIER WITH THE LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WILL PREFER A 12Z OR 00Z UKMET/12Z
OR 00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE HERE WHICH LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 12Z
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LOW ENVELOPE. ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...THE 12Z CANADIAN USED ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TOWARDS THE REGION TO SPIN UP A STRONGER SURFACE LOW NEAR
LOUISIANA...WHICH HAS VIRTUALLY NO 12Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT OR SUPPORT FROM ITS OWN 00Z RUN. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH
THE WEAKER CONSENSUS ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lavinia:
Good morning and happy Labour Day everyone.
Does anyone know what depth of the water a hurricane affects?

It depends on how big the storm is on the depth of water movement....Katrina moved water some 600 to 700 feet but some will only stir the water as much as 500 feet.....

Thats my understanding anyway....
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3173
1819. Dakster
Let me see if this posts... Only two models (besides the ensembles) show a W or WSW movement. (What's up with the BAMM and the U-Turn - if this verifies at least get to send one back) From the SFWMD page:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


Just click the invest or storm you want to find numbers for Link

Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
TAFB gave 96L a T2.0 and gave a data t-number of 2.5, forecasting additional strengthening.

AL, 96, 200909071200, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1160N, 2210W, , 3, 30


T# at 2.0-2.5? Expect an upgrade soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Autistic2:


I was in the USCG for 6 years. We went straight through the eye wall of David on a 378 foot AWHEC. A Liberian freighter issued a mayday. Unlike local emergency services you will NEVER hear the USCG say the weather is to bad to go out.

We had a saying. "You have to go out.you don't have to come back".


ROFL, we don't get paid to come back :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1815. lavinia
Good morning and happy Labour Day everyone.
Does anyone know what depth of the water a hurricane affects?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Where can you find this info?
Sorry for not helloing.


Just click the invest or storm you want to find numbers for Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Been there done that..in a Destroyer...trust me... none of those words were ever used to describe that.

Have you ever played Yahtzee? Imagine being the dice in that cup you shake around before you roll them.. thats a good start on the experience.


I was in the USCG for 6 years. We went straight through the eye wall of David on a 378 foot AWHEC. A Liberian freighter issued a mayday. Unlike local emergency services you will NEVER hear the USCG say the weather is to bad to go out.

We had a saying. "You have to go out.you don't have to come back".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
TAFB gave 96L a T2.0 and gave a data t-number of 2.5, forecasting additional strengthening.

AL, 96, 200909071200, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1160N, 2210W, , 3, 30

Where can you find this info?
Sorry for not helloing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting iceman55:
hurricanehanna big blo way down in gom


we'll wait and see then. Thanks
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480
Good morning!
Nearly all of the GFS ensemble members take 96L NW, but then back WSW or SW. And, after Erika, who knows with any of the models.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1809. Dakster
Quoting Bordonaro:

I am sure the 25-50' seas, 75-100MPH winds made for a truely unforgettable experience, peppered with 4, 5 and 6 lettered words throughout!!


According to him, most were too busy throwing up to say anything. Although you would have thought they were used to some of it, since they were stationed in the North Atlantic, which is known for high seas all the time. I get sea sick thinking about it, so I will always been known as a land lubber for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TAFB gave 96L a T2.0 and gave a data t-number of 2.5, forecasting additional strengthening.

AL, 96, 200909071200, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1160N, 2210W, , 3, 30
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Been there done that..in a Destroyer...trust me... none of those words were ever used to describe that.


Thankfully I've never had to ride one out at sea. But I will never, as long as I live, get the voice of the captain of that disabled ship being tossed around by Ike out of my head. Desperation might be a way to describe it. There was some female reporter on the radio with him. She kept on and on asking him questions. And he was being as polite as he could telling her he was busy. I'm glad they all made it. But it didn't sound like fun.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


I have a friend at work that was in the Navy and the Captain took the ship through a Hurricane... I remember a bunch of things about that discussion, but not once were the words "fun", "enjoyable", or "I would like to do that again", mentioned. Most of what was said, I cannot post on this blog.

G'morning StormW...

I am sure the 25-50' seas, 75-100MPH winds made for a truely unforgettable experience, peppered with 4, 5 and 6 lettered words throughout!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


I have a friend at work that was in the Navy and the Captain took the ship through a Hurricane... I remember a bunch of things about that discussion, but not once were the words "fun", "enjoyable", or "I would like to do that again", mentioned. Most of what was said, I cannot post on this blog.

G'morning StormW...


Been there done that..in a Destroyer...trust me... none of those words were ever used to describe that.

Have you ever played Yahtzee? Imagine being the dice in that cup you shake around before you roll them.. thats a good start on the experience.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
1804. palmpt
Quoting weatherblog:
Nothing is forming in the GOM. Shear is way too high. Tropical cyclones like Humberto or Claudette are pretty rare; the conditions have to be perfect or close to it. I give development chances less than 5% at the moment.



Shear is lifting soon... chances will definitely rise Wednesday forward.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1803. Dakster
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...something the size of an aircraft carrier.


I have a friend at work that was in the Navy and the Captain took the ship through a Hurricane... I remember a bunch of things about that discussion, but not once were the words "fun", "enjoyable", or "I would like to do that again", mentioned. Most of what was said, I cannot post on this blog.

G'morning StormW...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Per Tropical Position Page 07/1145 UTC 11.9N 21.7W T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic

Per Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Winds Analysis (MTC-SWA) (See Post 1763. Ameister12) closer to 13N 23W

Buoy STATION 13001 BUOY DATA NE Extension - 11.49N 23W - South of Cape Verdes Island


WebCam 16°36′00″N 22°54′15″W Santa Maria (South side of Sal, Cape Verde) This is a still picture - click to go to updating cam


16°36′00″N 22°54′15″W Santa Maria (South side of Sal, Cape Verde) - Again click for updating cam
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 2490
1799. Nimitz
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...something the size of an aircraft carrier.


Oh, hell no, something like a shrimp boat, or to give him a chance to survive it, a frigate. Better yet, put him in a beachfront hotel in a place like Gulfport and let a Camille come his way. He'll get a new aspect on prayer, and if he lives through it, a real respect for the power of these storms. I usually sit and lurk because listening is a better way to learn than asking. But when I hear a blithering idiot talk this kind of drivel, I KNOW the closest they ever got to a hurricane was seeing it on the Weather Channel.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Welcome to life near the GOM! El Nino year and the moment sheer lets up, everybody WATCH!! GOM SST very high, won't take much to fire off something!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Happy Labor Day everyone.
Loving the three day weekend!
Flareup in the Bay of Campeche this morning.

Loop
8 AM Discussion:
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. STRONG WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS PROVIDING A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES OTHER THAN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FAR SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR KEY WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA BAY THROUGH 25N90W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N W OF 93W.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1794. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
IKE,

What are your thoughts?


25-30% chance of a system developing this week in the GOM. It would take a few days for it to happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1844 - 1794

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.