The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

Share this Blog
3
+

Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 994 - 944

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

994. JLPR
Quoting TexasHurricane:


old picture,check the one Ameister12 posted
that one is more recent
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
I don't know whether someone already posted these informations, of what all the tropical waves have done in Central Africa: Unusual very severe flooding, which displaces thousands of people.

link


barbamz with greetings from germany
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like 96L have banings on it


what?????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
thank you koritheman I know so little yet that it is even hard to figure out where to look to find answers to my questions, I only knew 92 and 02 were el nino years because of a post earlier in the blog. I wish there was a really good page to look at for beginers to learn stuff. I am trying to learn it all in a very unorganized fashion it seems. Learning to read the charts, the lingo, the abreviations used, the basic formation and cloud types..... you name it I'm trying to learn it but it is really hard not even knowing really where to look. I thank everyone on WU who answers questions and helps point me in the right direction!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
looks like 96L have banings on it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115084
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting Ameister12:
Good evening.

96L is looks really healthy.

Tropical Depression by early tomorrow?


It's possible. The ingredients are all there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zebralove:
trying to answer my own question.... 1992 mod el nino 1993 less active year than norm, 2002 mod el nino 2003 more active than norm with storms both before and after the official season. However did not realize that el nino could be more than one year in a row 91-94. Hmmmmmm anyone give me any thoughts on a possible patern for years AFTER el nino years?


Typically, the year following an El Nino is a very active one in the Atlantic, barring a continuation of El Nino conditions into the following year, which, as you mentioned, occurred from 1991-1994.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20571
983. JLPR
Quoting Weatherkid27:

Winds don't appear to be real strong correct?... but I guess a Low Level circulation none the less!


yep it emerged not so long ago so it hasn't had the chance to get stronger but tonight it might get going
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting Patrap:


Id keep one eye on this situation,cuz if it pops.things will get interesting tomorrow seems.


ADCP Directional Spectrum










hmmm, ok. I will keep an eye out although my second eye might keep an eye out as well... :)
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811


AOI/XX/XX
MARK
22.9N/93.8W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
trying to answer my own question.... 1992 mod el nino 1993 less active year than norm, 2002 mod el nino 2003 more active than norm with storms both before and after the official season. However did not realize that el nino could be more than one year in a row 91-94. Hmmmmmm anyone give me any thoughts on a possible patern for years AFTER el nino years?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
Finally QS Data and LLCC is evident


Winds don't appear to be real strong correct?... but I guess a Low Level circulation none the less!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening.

96L is looking healthy.

Tropical Depression by early tomorrow?
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4979
977. IKE
I think I see what the latest CMC is picking up on. Look at the 18Z GFS @ 168 hours and notice the low, inland, over Louisiana, in advance of the strong trough, cold front, moving into the SE USA. It'll probably wind up being a non-tropical low, but after that low moves through the SE USA, the cooler/colder air will be moving in....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi Patrap,

What is your take on the Gulf? Think this may be an issue as one of the models suggested?


Id keep one eye on this situation,cuz if it pops.things will get interesting tomorrow seems.


ADCP Directional Spectrum








Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
Update completed.

6pm Tropical update on 96L and Carolinas disturbance.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
Is there any doubt what model FRED is going to follow in the long-run?
.

BAM-BAM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
12 Z 96L Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


That's gotta be for 95L...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Finally QS Data and LLCC is evident

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
yup all those models are for 95L not 96L
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
966. JLPR
Quoting Patrap:
12 Z 96L Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Pat are you sure that's 96L
looks like 95L
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting Patrap:
12 Z 96L Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Pat I think thats 95L, 96L is just off Africa.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
Quoting Progster:


Best track with Bill - better than NHC.


I thought cmc had the best track with Bill, but like Gator23 said, bad at forecasting cyclongenesis...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
/>
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
12 Z
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
Sorry, posted wrong image in 955. I've changed it.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22098
12 Z
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
Quoting gator23:


the cmc is does nto have a good record with forecasting cyclongenesis


Best track with Bill - better than NHC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Patrap,
#953 - 16 waves? Looks like someone thinks a storm's comin'...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
GOM 84 Hour Wave Forecast Model (using MIKE21)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
Quoting iceman55:
Link

go here for 96L

96L looks alot better than half of the named storms we've already had this year! Is this the big one for 2009?? We'll all find out soon enough!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22098
This year is an el nino year so there are a lot fewer storms forming and making it over to affect land. Does anyone know if there is a normal pattern to the year AFTER an el nino year? and if there is a pattern what is it? Thanks for your great base of knowledge one and all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
kinda sad really to realize our itelligence has been wasted on us


Having been on the net since 94, and an IRC channel op, manager, and owner and a mailing list (for a tactical simulation)with up to 600 members, I can tell you very confidently a troll is simply someone who wants to get attention, and normally does it by making inflamatory statements. You handle them by ignoring them, and if that doesn't make them go somewhere else for attention, you ban them. If you don't, the signal to noise ratio goes in the crapper real quick.

There's nothing marvelous about trolls; there's no societal reason for them being the irritating individuals they are. They simply want to dominate the conversation, and will do anything to do so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
951. JLPR
10:18 PM GMT on September 06, 2009
Models on 96L
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
950. Stormchaser2007
10:17 PM GMT on September 06, 2009
Ill have an update on 96L soon.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
949. BahaHurican
10:17 PM GMT on September 06, 2009
Rain's down here.

Hope this lasts into Tuesday.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22098
948. justmehouston
10:16 PM GMT on September 06, 2009
Got my rain patrap ...pouring here now
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
946. mikatnight
10:13 PM GMT on September 06, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


I think he meant the CMC showing many systems


Oh, duh...I need a cup of coffee...
Thanks.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
945. Cavin Rawlins
10:12 PM GMT on September 06, 2009
Quoting mikatnight:


WhadI do, screw up?


I think he meant the CMC showing many systems
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
944. Patrap
10:10 PM GMT on September 06, 2009
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273

Viewing: 994 - 944

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.