The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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I'm seeing some of the models are taking 96L North/NW then taking it back east, or continue to move WNW.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5082
Quoting Weather456:


95L entered a region of high shear and was deactivated.

96L forms offshore the African coast and has the potential to develop into Fred this week

an area of disturbed weather developed offshore the Carolinas in association with a frontal boundary was mentioned in the TWO but dropped.

an endless list of casters

trolls

and drama

thats about it.



so the usual right 456? lol
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1240. RJT185
Quoting Relix:


It failed for Georges and Jeanne... and Hugo... and Hortense... =P. Worked pretty well for Luis, Lenny, Omar and so many other beasts though lol. Who knows... we truly are overdue for a hurricane impact =P. In the 90s we got hit about three times... Marilyn, Hortense and Georges the Great. 00's only Jeanne got us. It's been about 11 years since we received a direct impact from a strong hurricane. We are as overdue as we are to also have a huge earthquake soon =P. Yes, PR will become a disaster zone soon =(



I still remember Georges vividly.
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Back from my trip to the mountains. What have i missed since friday morning??


95L entered a region of high shear and was deactivated.

96L forms offshore the African coast and has the potential to develop into Fred this week

an area of disturbed weather developed offshore the Carolinas in association with a frontal boundary was mentioned in the TWO but dropped.

an endless list of casters

trolls

and drama

thats about it.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1237. hydrus
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Anyone think that the BOC will show some slow development over the coming week?
I think North or Central Gulf, but the B.O.C., maybe late September-early October, Just my harmless opinion..:)
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1236. RJT185
how's the trough going to behave in regards to 96L???
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1233. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:


Latest Image


looking better
producing convection closer to the center
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1232. JLPR
Quoting Relix:


Well.. it's been 91 years since we had an earthquake. The average is around 60 and the max we've been is 114. So it's bound to happen eventually.


shh dude lol
don't call upon the apocalypse =P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1231. Relix
Quoting Dakster:


It'll happen 12-12-2012....

Sounds like you are expecting the apocolypse.


Well.. it's been 91 years since we had an earthquake. The average is around 60 and the max we've been is 114. So it's bound to happen eventually.
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1230. JLPR
Quoting tornadodude:


was that StormTop industries?


nope sadly that company made one for us in 97 and in 98 we got a direct hit from Georges
so we sued lol xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting Dakster:


It'll happen 12-12-2012....

Sounds like you are expecting the apocolypse.


it worked pretty well for Ivan
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Quoting Dakster:
Weather - Isn't that a TD?


not yet, since those winds are not at the center

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1225. Dakster
Weather - Isn't that a TD?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok yea I got cha I think they will send it tomorrow or tue


Nothing will go to 96L for a while, if ever.
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1223. Dakster
Quoting Relix:


It failed for Georges and Jeanne... and Hugo... and Hortense... =P. Worked pretty well for Luis, Lenny, Omar and so many other beasts though lol. Who knows... we truly are overdue for a hurricane impact =P. In the 90s we got hit about three times... Marilyn, Hortense and Georges the Great. 00's only Jeanne got us. It's been about 11 years since we received a direct impact from a strong hurricane. We are as overdue as we are to also have a huge earthquake soon =P. Yes, PR will become a disaster zone soon =(


It'll happen 12-12-2012....

Sounds like you are expecting the apocolypse.
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Anyone think that the BOC will show some slow development over the coming week?
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting hercj:

Yeah. Upper Air data. The models will be completely confused without help. GIV is the best way to get it down there.

ok yeah I got cha I think they will send it tue or wed
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1219. Relix
Quoting JLPR:


yeah sure
Ill call the company that made ours xD


It failed for Georges and Jeanne... and Hugo... and Hortense... =P. Worked pretty well for Luis, Lenny, Omar and so many other beasts though lol. Who knows... we truly are overdue for a hurricane impact =P. In the 90s we got hit about three times... Marilyn, Hortense and Georges the Great. 00's only Jeanne got us. It's been about 11 years since we received a direct impact from a strong hurricane. We are as overdue as we are to also have a huge earthquake soon =P. Yes, PR will become a disaster zone soon =(
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Kman....have a good trip.
Thanks for all the interesting informative posts tonite.
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Quoting Dakster:


Hmm, I thought it was Cyclonebusters, Incorporated.



yep, think you got it
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1216. Dakster
Quoting tornadodude:


was that StormTop industries?


Hmm, I thought it was Cyclonebusters, Incorporated.
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Model Guidance on 96L...all I could get
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Quoting JLPR:


yeah sure
Ill call the company that made ours xD


was that StormTop industries?
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1213. hercj
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

for what 96l

Yeah. Upper Air data. The models will be completely confused without help. GIV is the best way to get it down there.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Well, that's all from me for tonight. I will be out of town for a week and as such will likely only be on from time to time if at all.

Good night all


Thanks Kman - have a great trip!
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1211. JLPR
Quoting Dakster:
JLPR - Can you duplicate it? I want to order one for South Florida.


yeah sure
Ill call the company that made ours xD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1210. Dakster
1208. That is a pretty good bet to take, since even the NHC mentioned that there was a good chance it could become a TD by tomorrow in the 8pm outlook.

And yes, I tend to agree with you - it does look good and it is finally over water, so it isn't land interaction causing it anymore.
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Quoting hercj:
here's a bet for anyone that is interested. NOAA sends the GIV back to Barbados on Wednesday.

for what 96l
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Good Evening,

Just checking in. 96L is probably the best organized Tropical Wave that will cross the African Coast this season. It has a very impressive spin to it and has a decent amount of deep convection. If this trend of organization continues we will probably see advisories initiated sometime tomorrow.
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Well, that's all from me for tonight. I will be out of town for a week and as such will likely only be on from time to time if at all.

Good night all
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1205. Drakoen
Quoting Eagle300:


So each of the main models is made up of many smaller models?


Not really... The ensembles project a path based on slightly different conditions. The GFS, CMC, EMCWF have ensembles. I have never seen a UKMET or NOGAPS ensemble.
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1204. Dakster
JLPR - Can you duplicate it? I want to order one for South Florida.
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1203. hercj
here's a bet for anyone that is interested. NOAA sends the GIV back to Barbados on Wednesday.
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Good night. Check on things in the morning. Labor Day....yeah!
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1201. JLPR
Quoting Relix:


Can only last so much before dying out =(


no its not going down
Im going to call the energizer bunny lol
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
1200. Patrap

North Atlantic Basin

*

Early-cycle track guidance


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129808
Personally, until a wave like 96L develops a well defined closed low and is classified as a TD I pay very little attention to the models.

They perform marginally at best in the early stages of formation and are particulalrly poor on track. Remember the models calling for pre-Erika to make a right turn into the North Atlantic near 35 or 40 West ??.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Colombia does produce a repetitive low that ejects from the NW coast into the SW Caribbean all the time. This low is created by the terrain that develops thunderstorms in that area but the low itself usually peters out over water. It is also referred to as the perennial Colombian low.

I noticed those massive storms a long time ago and wondered in amazement as they quickly dissipate every time. I am perplexed as to why that happens, while if there's a similar storm in GOM in the summer, I guess it would develop.
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Quoting Drakoen:


AEMN=GFS ensemble mean


So each of the main models is made up of many smaller models?
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1195. Drakoen
Quoting AllStar17:
Only the AEMN takes 96L west...as of now.


AEMN=GFS ensemble mean
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1194. Dakster
WS - You need to calm down. Go take a "Golden" Panther shower in that bathroom on your avatar...

---

What is the A/B high forecasted to do? Right now it looks rather weak, going from an earlier post. (It may have changed in the last several hours so don't flame me if I'm wrong for CURRENT conditions) That may explain the ensemble model trend towards a bend back to the west later in the forecast period.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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