The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting iceman55:


Latest Image
Still looking impressive for a newly emerged wave.
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1293. RJT185
Quoting Weather456:


dont live in Puerto Rico,

I live where Georges made its 2nd landfall, Saint Kitts. First landfall was further east, Antigua


Cool. :)
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06/2345 UTC 12.9N 19.9W T1.0/1.0 96L

-Only T1.0, NHC usually will upgrade a system when it reaches T2.0.
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97L will be the one to watch..looks to come off african coast at lower latitude fri-sat.
If weakness in BAZ high persists 96L appears to
be destined to go north to a cool water demise.
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Quoting RJT185:


Where in PR were you???


dont live in Puerto Rico,

I live where Georges made its 2nd landfall, Saint Kitts. First landfall was further east, Antigua
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
great image
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1287. RJT185
Quoting hydrus:
I have read that it is geologically active in your area. I have never been in a earthquake.


Yup. I wasn't surprised, but I can't imagine it would have been too significant of a magma find.
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Quoting HIEXPRESS:
Wilmington Radar

QS off Carolina
Yes, that area is being monitored closely, but if anything were to form it will be subtropical or extratropical...Track wise it will just scrape along the US eastern seaboard bringing some rain to the coastal cities.
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07/0000 UTC 15.3N 124.4W T2.0/2.0 96E -- East Pacific
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114760
1284. hydrus
Quoting Weather456:


110 miles per hr
And the gusts?
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1283. RJT185
Quoting Weather456:


110 miles per hr


Where in PR were you???
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Quoting JRRP:

yeah but i do not understand the ensemble model

Yeah, I don't like the ensemble models. I prover the forecast models.
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1281. hydrus
Quoting RJT185:


Late 90's. We were touring the Parque Ceremonial, and one of the tour guides from the Fideicomiso de Conservacion mentioned it.
I have read that it is geologically active in your area. I have never been in a earthquake.
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Quoting hydrus:
Just curious, How high were the winds when Georges struck your area?


110 miles per hr
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1279. hydrus
Quoting Weather456:


The storm that got me into the business.
Just curious, How high were the winds when Georges struck your area?
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1278. JRRP
Quoting Ameister12:

The Ensemble Models taking it NW and then west again.

yeah but i do not understand the ensemble model
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Wilmington Radar

QS off Carolina
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1276. RJT185
Quoting hydrus:
What year was that?


Late 90's. We were touring the Parque Ceremonial, and one of the tour guides from the Fideicomiso de Conservacion mentioned it.
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Quoting Weather456:


Not likely at this moment.
Like it has been said many times before "its too early to tell", but at this moment in time I agree due to the weakness in the Azores high at the moment a Fish storm is likely and US coast threat is unlikely.
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1274. RJT185
Quoting hydrus:
I bet. I would think there are thousands of people who wont forget Georges.


Yeah. Anytime a storm gets close to the island we start worrying about the coffee plantation and my one grandma. Among others things obviously.
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1273. hydrus
Quoting Weather456:


The storm that got me into the business.
My sister builds houses and apartments. Business tends to increase when the storms come.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



TD by AM
well like I said, if there is no tight closed LLC, the NHC will not upgrade it. But, 850MB vorticity seems to continue to rise.
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Quoting Ameister12:

The Ensemble Models taking it NW and then west again.


stair step?
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Quoting JRRP:
what is that ?

The Ensemble Models taking it NW and then west again.
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1268. hydrus
Quoting RJT185:


I've heard that during some core drillings in Tibes that they found magma. I remember Ponce had a 3.4 back when I was in 7th grade ... it woke me up since I was up on a 13th floor penthouse asleep and my bed slid a good 2 inches back & forth.
What year was that?
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1267. JRRP
what is that ?
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Quoting Ameister12:
96L still organizing.

96L still firing convection, a sign that the Diurnal phases don't affect it, which does impress the NHC, Bands have been forming which is a sign of organization...We could possibly have a TD tomorrow if we can find a tight closed LLC.
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Quoting hydrus:
I bet. I would think there are thousands of people who wont forget Georges.


The storm that got me into the business.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Tazmanian:



TD by AM

Most likely.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


So no US threater then, 456? :)


Not likely at this moment.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Ameister12:
96L still organizing.




TD by AM
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114760
1258. hydrus
Quoting RJT185:



I still remember Georges vividly.
I bet. I would think there are thousands of people who wont forget Georges.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



are you wanting a storm too hit WeatherStudent???? if you are wanting a storm too hit i can send you out in your row boat too meet 96L


works for me
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96L still organizing.

Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4903
Quoting WeatherStudent:


So no US threater then, 456? :)



are you wanting a storm too hit WeatherStudent???? if you are wanting a storm too hit i can send you out in your row boat too meet 96L
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Quoting extreme236:


Nope.
oh ok
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Good night, everyone. Will check in at some point in the a.m. if I have time.
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1252. RJT185
Quoting Relix:


Well.. it's been 91 years since we had an earthquake. The average is around 60 and the max we've been is 114. So it's bound to happen eventually.


I've heard that during some core drillings in Tibes that they found magma. I remember Ponce had a 3.4 back when I was in 7th grade ... it woke me up since I was up on a 13th floor penthouse asleep and my bed slid a good 2 inches back & forth.
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Quoting Ameister12:
I'm seeing some of the models are taking it North/NW then taking it back east, or continue to move WNW.


that is due to the fact that ridge is broken down and rebuilt a couple of times over the next week or two. but curvature still expected
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TD?


Nope.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting extreme236:
AL, 96, 2009090700, , BEST, 0, 126N, 196W, 25, 1007,
TD?
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


so the usual right 456? lol


yep, lol lol
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I'm seeing some of the models are taking 96L North/NW then taking it back east, or continue to move WNW.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4903

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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