The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes, that area is being monitored closely, but if anything were to form it will be subtropical or extratropical...Track wise it will just scrape along the US eastern seaboard bringing some rain to the coastal cities.



Yes, it's the front & it's early enough in the season that I don't have to worry about anything that should develop in that area retrograding.
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1343. Patrap
Quoting truecajun:
hello everyone. just checkin' on the tropics. i see all is well.

patrap, are the models you are posting of the wave that dr. m says will be swept away by a low?


Yes I believe that would be 96L.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
am I visible?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Miamihurricane, I see you.
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hello everyone. just checkin' on the tropics. i see all is well.

patrap, are the models you are posting of the wave that dr. m says will be swept away by a low?
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1339. 19N81W
hmmmm...whats up this year folks?..are we going into a quiet period?
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:
Anyone else notice how spread out the models are with 96L? Anyone that can determine were this is going so far in advance must have a crystal ball.


Yeap remember Bill at this stage was forrescast to make it to the NE caribbean and everyone knows what happend.
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Quoting Ameister12:

You seem to be hidden, but you're not on my ignore list.
go to the filter and click "show all"
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1335. JLPR
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Am i on everybody's ignore list?


I see you
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Am i on everybody's ignore list?


not mine, but i do wonder if im on peoples ignore list too
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1333. JLPR
Quoting serialteg:


fortuño seems to be bad enough !!!!


lol yep he is =P
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1332. Patrap
The 1012 Mb double Barreled Lows are always a winner..
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Am i on everybody's ignore list?

You seem to be hidden, but you're not on my ignore list.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Am i on everybody's ignore list?


lol
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Am i on everybody's ignore list?
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Quoting JLPR:


yep bad one I got it at 115pmh and it was a horrible but impressive storm
thank goodness nothing like that has happen to my area since then =]


fortuño seems to be bad enough !!!!
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Quoting serialteg:


nope 95L is system to the NE of it

Woops.
I meant the wave that was in front of it.
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1325. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128767
im right under a low right now link
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1317. iceman55 9:49 PM CDT on September 06, 2009
Let's pray they are wrong....
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Quoting btwntx08:

give me link so i can see :)
I posted it, post # 1312. ;-)
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Anyone else notice how spread out the models are with 96L? Anyone that can determine were this is going so far in advance must have a crystal ball.
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The 00z mm5fsu-merge is very interesting, it has a different track solution with 96L:
(Moving WNW)
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1318. Patrap
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Quoting extreme236:
GFS develops another CV system in the 96-120 hour period but has development slow due to the nearby presence of 96L.
Seen here at HR 168.
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1313. Patrap
00 Z 96L Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

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Quoting btwntx08:

i'm fine hey do models still form a low in the gom
The CMC does:

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GFS develops another CV system in the 96-120 hour period but has development slow due to the nearby presence of 96L.
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1310. Patrap
00 Z 96L Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

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1309. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:
the winds were actually 115 mph but I dont know what the gusts were

After passing through Antigua, Georges produced strong winds of up to 115 mph (185 km/h) while passing over St. Kitts, downing power lines, telephone lines, and trees across the island. Lack of electricity resulted in damage to water facilities, as well. Georges's high winds caused extensive property damage, damaging 80-85% of the houses on the island, and destroying 20-25% of homes. Many schools, businesses, hospitals, and government buildings lost their roofs, while the airport experienced severe damage to its main terminal and control tower, limiting flights to the daytime. St. Kitts' economy was disrupted from severe agricultural losses, including the devastation of 50% of their sugar crop. In addition, damaged hotels and piers created a long-term impact through lack of tourism - an industry the island relies on. In all, Hurricane Georges caused 5 fatalities, left 3,000 homeless, and resulted in $445 million (1998 USD) in damage on the island.


yep bad one I got it at 115pmh and it was a horrible but impressive storm
thank goodness nothing like that has happen to my area since then =]
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1301. btwntx08 9:44 PM CDT on September 06, 2009
Quoting iceman55:
btwntx08 hey w/b

i'm fine hey do models still form a low in the gom

I sure hope not!!!
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Quoting Ameister12:

Isn't that what was 95L.


nope 95L is system to the NE of it
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Nice convection
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Quoting DestinJeff:
whats up with this little guy in central atl:



with 850mb vorticity too:



Its been there for days now, looks like a comet with all that shear
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1303. Drakoen
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Quoting DestinJeff:
whats up with this little guy in central atl:



with 850mb vorticity too:


Isn't that what was 95L?
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5026
Quoting DestinJeff:
whats up with this little guy in central atl:



with 850mb vorticity too:

nothing to worry, should die out in the next several days...You forgot one map, the most important one:
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nice
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the winds were actually 115 mph but I dont know what the gusts were

After passing through Antigua, Georges produced strong winds of up to 115 mph (185 km/h) while passing over St. Kitts, downing power lines, telephone lines, and trees across the island. Lack of electricity resulted in damage to water facilities, as well. Georges's high winds caused extensive property damage, damaging 80-85% of the houses on the island, and destroying 20-25% of homes. Many schools, businesses, hospitals, and government buildings lost their roofs, while the airport experienced severe damage to its main terminal and control tower, limiting flights to the daytime. St. Kitts' economy was disrupted from severe agricultural losses, including the devastation of 50% of their sugar crop. In addition, damaged hotels and piers created a long-term impact through lack of tourism - an industry the island relies on. In all, Hurricane Georges caused 5 fatalities, left 3,000 homeless, and resulted in $445 million (1998 USD) in damage on the island.
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Quoting iceman55:


Latest Image
Still looking impressive for a newly emerged wave.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.