The tropics are quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:11 PM GMT on September 06, 2009

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Considering that this is historically the peak week of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are quiet. There is an area of disturbed weather in the middle Atlantic (95L) that NHC has been mentioning in their Tropical Weather Outlook the past day, but this disturbance is entering a region of high wind shear and is not a threat to develop.

A strong tropical wave with plenty of rotation is emerging off the coast of Africa this morning, and this wave is a good candidate to show some development this week as it heads west-northwest over the Atlantic. The wave is under about 15 knots of wind shear, and is being developed by several models, including the GFS and ECMWF. However, the models show that this new wave will be pulled northwestward by a strong trough of low pressure this week, and it appears unlikely that the wave will make the long crossing of the Atlantic necessary to threaten any land areas. Another wave with plenty of spin will emerge from the coast of Africa two days from now, and will also have a chance to develop.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L and a new tropical wave with potential to develop, emerging from the coast of Africa.

An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain just offshore of North Carolina's Outer Banks today as it slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1444. Jerrob
Patrap, that is so cool! thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
I'm back from traipsing the earth..

Black oval thing in the upper white, right is odd. Only in one frame. Looks like a near miss:P


Not saying it couldn't happen but MJO doesn't favor the GOM event.


There was a close impact a few days ago with some satellites. Pretty cool.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15864
Quoting Jerrob:
LOL! so tired im feeling a little giddy. sorry


haha giddy can be fun tho LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8300
1441. Patrap
NASA orbiter snaps Apollo 12 landing site

Intrepid Descent Stage poses for the camera



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
1440. Jerrob
Quoting tornadodude:


how are you tonight?



ive actually never heard that one, nice! :)
LOL! so tired im feeling a little giddy. sorry
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Quoting Skyepony:
I'm back from traipsing the earth..

Black oval thing in the upper white, right is odd. Only in one frame. Looks like a near miss:P


Not saying it couldn't happen but MJO doesn't favor the GOM event.


the black thing is the deathstar
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8300
StormW I have a question, is it possible the MJO maps are wrong?

because they say that we should be having a strong downward pulse in the GOM, Caribbean and West Atlantic and yet we have tons of convection.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Good evening Tornadodude. :)


how are you tonight?

Quoting Jerrob:
Hey T-dude!


ive actually never heard that one, nice! :)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8300
Quoting StormW:


Cat and Texas...I'm just getting ready to look at things...I'm gonna try and stay awake long enough to see if I can post an update. I've had many questions today on various areas.


Thank you. Take your time...
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1434. Skyepony (Mod)
I'm back from traipsing the earth..

Black oval thing in the upper white, right is odd. Only in one frame. Looks like a near miss:P


Not saying it couldn't happen but MJO doesn't favor the GOM event.
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1432. Jerrob
Quoting tornadodude:
Good evening everyone!
Hey T-dude!
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Good evening Tornadodude. :)
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Good evening everyone!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8300
Good Evening Storm, so 96L is going to sea or things can change?
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Storm, is the forecasted development in the GOM expected to form from the tail end of the trough currently moving E over TX, AR, and other states?
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Quoting StormW:


Hey Cat!


Hi StormW,

What is your take on the possible Gulf developement?
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Evening Truecajun. :)
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING E TO W ACROSS
THE EXTREME N AND NW WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH TUE
THEN AS RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND PUSH THE
TROUGH BACK E TO OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS WED AND THU.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NW FL TO SW GULF AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS WESTWARD. A N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH WILL MOVE W OVER THE
FL STRAITS MON...STALL AND MEANDER ALONG 81W TO 83W THROUGH MID
WEEK.

I think this explains why the models are showing whatever it is riding up along the TX coast and going inland to LA. With the ridge pushing the trough back to the west.

Just my two cents. :)


That's what it sounds like. I guess we will see pretty soon....
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Quoting iceman55:
homelesswanderer hey


Hey Iceman. :)
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
Sorry. Good evening everyone. :)


evening.
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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1413. JLPR
Quoting StormW:
Good evening ladies and iceman!


hello =D
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Storm! Howdy!!!
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Sorry. Good evening everyone. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING E TO W ACROSS
THE EXTREME N AND NW WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH TUE
THEN AS RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND PUSH THE
TROUGH BACK E TO OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS WED AND THU.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NW FL TO SW GULF AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS WESTWARD. A N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH WILL MOVE W OVER THE
FL STRAITS MON...STALL AND MEANDER ALONG 81W TO 83W THROUGH MID
WEEK.

I think this explains why the models are showing whatever it is riding up along the TX coast and going inland to LA. With the ridge pushing the trough back to the west.

Just my two cents. :)
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1407. Patrap
WAVEtrak,Atlantic Winds,Vorticity Split-Window
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
1404. Jerrob
Hello Storm
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1403. Patrap


Latest SAL Split-Window
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Quoting truecajun:


Ok. that was confusing, or more that i can wrap my mind around at the moment! LOL!
I know, for me too...that is why I asked Patrap...lol
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1401. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
hi storm.
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1399. Patrap
00 Z 96L Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Good Evening Storm
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Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
This is what Futuremet wrote earlier.....
It looks like we will have to monitor the GOM closely during the latter part of next week, as a potent longwave trough traverses across the Midwest. The trough is expected to split and slightly troughing in southward, thus kindling upper level anticyclogenesis across the area. The anticyclone will form due to positive vorticity advection at the eastern axis of the longwave trough. Like fluids, air has a tendency to rotate at its own axis, and typically flows from areas of higher speed to lower speed. Therefore some the fast moving air moving from the southwest will start curving toward the south. This is why upper level anticyclones typically form proportionally by the area of highest winds along the trough axis. The formation of the upper ridge will help decrease wind shear values over the GOM, which will great tropical cyclone formation. Since upper level ridges do not have a pronounced effect on steering current, the longwave trough to the north will likely steer anything that forms NE. Now, I am not saying anything will form, but there is a possibility something will. This may very well be the last chance for anything to form in the GOM, before it closes down in October due to shear. The anomalously warm SSTs in the GOM will propagate southward to the Caribbean as we near the month of October. In addition, the MJO will help increase values across the Caribbean. Troughs nosing in southward will provide additional energy for tropical cyclone formation; like in hurricane Wilma of 2005. Hopefully this weak el nino will induce adequate shear to stop anything major from forming; or hopefully the troughs are so strong that the cause these storms to move ENE , like we saw in latter part of 2008 with Omar and Paloma.


Ok. that was confusing, or more that i can wrap my mind around at the moment! LOL!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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