Arctic temperatures the warmest in 2,000 years; 2009 Arctic sea ice loss 3rd highest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:32 PM GMT on September 04, 2009

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It's time to take a bit of a break from coverage of the Atlantic hurricane season of 2009, and report on some important climate news. The past decade was the warmest decade in the Arctic for the past 2,000 years, according to a study called "Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling" published today in the journal Science. Furthermore, four of the five warmest decades in the past 2,000 years occurred between 1950 - 2000, despite the fact that summertime solar radiation in the Arctic has been steadily declining for the past 2,000 years. Previous efforts to reconstruct past climate in the Arctic extended back only 400 years, so the new study--which used lake sediments, glacier ice cores, and tree rings to look at past climate back to the time of Christ, decade by decade-- is a major new milestone in our understanding of the Arctic climate. The researchers found that Arctic temperatures steadily declined between 1 A.D. and 1900 A.D., as would be expected due to a 26,000-year cycle in Earth's orbit that brought less summer sunshine to the North Pole. Earth is now about 620,000 miles (1 million km) farther from the Sun in the Arctic summer than it was 2000 years ago. However, temperatures in the Arctic began to rise around the year 1900, and are now 1.4°C (2.5°F) warmer than they should be, based on the amount of sunlight that is currently falling in the Arctic in summer. "If it hadn't been for the increase in human-produced greenhouse gases, summer temperatures in the Arctic should have cooled gradually over the last century," Bette Otto-Bliesner, a co-author from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said in a statement.

The Arctic melt season of 2009
Arctic sea ice suffered another summer of significant melting in 2009, with August ice extent the third lowest on record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. August ice extent was 19% below the 1979 - 2000 average, and only 2007 and 2008 saw more melting of Arctic sea ice. We've now had two straight years in the Arctic without a new record minimum in sea ice. However, this does not mean that the Arctic sea ice is recovering. The reduced melting in 2009 compared to 2007 and 2008 primarily resulted from a different atmospheric circulation pattern this summer. This pattern generated winds that transported ice toward the Siberian coast and discouraged export of ice out of the Arctic Ocean. The previous two summers, the prevailing wind pattern acted to transport more ice out of the Arctic through Fram Strait, along the east side of Greenland. At last December's meeting of the American Geophysical Union, the world's largest scientific conference on climate change, J.E. Kay of the National Center for Atmospheric Research showed that Arctic surface pressure in the summer of 2007 was the fourth highest since 1948, and cloud cover at Barrow, Alaska was the sixth lowest. This suggests that once every 10 - 20 years a "perfect storm" of weather conditions highly favorable for ice loss invades the Arctic. The last two times such conditions existed was 1977 and 1987, and it may be another ten or so years before weather conditions align properly to set a new record minimum.

The Northeast Passage opens
As a result of this summer's melting, the Northeast Passage, a notoriously ice-choked sea route along the northern Russia, is now clear of ice and open for navigation. Satellite analyses by the University of Illinois Polar Research Group and the National Snow and Ice Data Center show that the last remaining ice blockage along the north coast of Russia melted in late August, allowing navigation from Europe to Alaska in ice-free waters. Mariners have been attempting to sail the Northeast Passage since 1553, and it wasn't until the record-breaking Arctic sea-ice melt year of 2005 that the Northeast Passage opened for ice-free navigation for the first time in recorded history. The fabled Northwest Passage through the Arctic waters of Canada has remained closed this summer, however. An atmospheric pressure pattern set up in late July that created winds that pushed old, thick ice into several of the channels of the Northwest Passage. Recent research by Stephen Howell at the University of Waterloo in Canada shows that whether the Northwest Passage clears depends less on how much melt occurs, and more on whether multi-year sea ice is pushed into the channels. Counter-intuitively, as the ice cover thins, ice may flow more easily into the channels, preventing the Northwest Passage from regularly opening in coming decades, if the prevailing winds set up to blow ice into the channels of the Passage. The Northwest Passage opened for the first time in recorded history in 2007, and again in 2008. Mariners have been attempting to find a route through the Northwest Passage since 1497.


Figure 1. Sea ice extent on September 2, 2009, with the Northwest Passage (red line) and Northeast Passage (green line) shown. The Northeast Passage was open, but the Northwest Passage was blocked in three places. The orange line shows the median edge of sea ice extent for September 2 during the period 1979 - 2000, and this year's ice extent is about 19% below average. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Commercial shipping begins in the Northeast Passage
This year's opening marks the fourth time in five years that the Northeast Passage has opened, and commercial shipping companies are taking note. Two German ships set off on August 21 on the first commercial voyage ever made through the Northeast Passage without the help of icebreakers. The Northeast Passage trims 4,500 miles off the 12,500 mile trip through the Suez Canal, yielding considerable savings in fuel. The voyage was not possible last year, because Russia had not yet worked out a permitting process. With Arctic sea ice expected to continue to decline in the coming decades, shipping traffic through the Northeast Passage will likely become commonplace most summers.

When was the Northeast Passage ice-free in the past?
People have been attempting to penetrate the ice-bound Northeast Passage since 1553, when British explorer Sir Hugh Willoughby attempted the passage with three ships and 62 men. The frozen bodies of Sir Hugh and his men were found a year later, after they failed to make it past the northern coast of Finland. British explorer Henry Hudson, who died in 1611 trying to find a route through Canada's fabled Northwest Passage, (and whom Canada's Hudson Bay and New York's Hudson River are named after), attempted to sail the Northeast Passage in 1607 and 1608, and failed. The Northeast Passage has remained closed to navigation, except via assist by icebreakers, from 1553 to 2005. The results published in Science today suggest that prior to 2005, the last previous opening was the period 5,000 - 7,000 years ago, when the Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. It is possible we'll know better soon. A new technique that examines organic compounds left behind in Arctic sediments by diatoms that live in sea ice give hope that a detailed record of sea ice extent extending back to the end of the Ice Age 12,000 years ago may be possible (Belt et al., 2007). The researchers are studying sediments along the Northwest Passage in hopes of being able to determine when the Passage was last open.

References
Belt, S.T., G. Masse, S.J. Rowland, M. Poulin, C. Michel, and B. LeBlanc, "A novel chemical fossil of palaeo sea ice: IP25", Organic Geochemistry, Volume 38, Issue 1, January 2007, Pages 16-27.

Darrell S. Kaufman, David P. Schneider, Nicholas P. McKay, Caspar M. Ammann, Raymond S. Bradley, Keith R. Briffa, Gifford H. Miller, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Bo M. Vinther, and Arctic Lakes 2k Project Members, 2009, "Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling", Science 4 September 2009: 1236-1239.

Howell, S. E. L., C. R. Duguay, and T. Markus. 2009. Sea ice conditions and melt season duration variability within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: 1979.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L10502, doi:10.1029/2009GL037681.

Tropical Weather Outlook
The remains of Tropical Storm Erika are bringing heavy rain to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and this activity will spread to the Dominican Republic on Saturday. Radar-estimated rainfall shows up to three inches of rain has fallen in eastern Puerto Rico from the storm. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows no surface circulation or organization of the echoes, and redevelopment of Erika over the next three days is unlikely to occur due to high wind shear of 25 - 30 knots. By Monday or Tuesday, shear may drop enough to allow redevelopment, depending upon the location of Erika's remains. Redevelopment is more likely if Erika works its way northwestward into the Bahamas.

A large tropical wave with plenty of spin is located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased slightly in this wave over the past day, and it has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Saturday or Sunday, depending upon developments in the tropics.

Jeff Masters

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2222. Fshhead
WOOOOOHOOOOO!!!!!!
Awesome news there WPB!
Should break the humidity some..
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Quoting TexNowNM:


Texas, you must be from extreme SE Texas. My 90 year country-boy grandfather said he had never seen ice like that. My dad sent me a picture of an ice covered tree with lush green grass under it. The website for the Lake Charles weather service has an interesting write up on that storm. We know people who had holes in their roofs from broken pine limbs.


yes, I am. I am about 40-45 mintues away from Lake Charles. That was an interesting storm.It was sooooooo cold. but, it was cool at the same time. Just not something we see very often.
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yay for FL
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Looks like a cold front is coming to S. Florida this Tuesday:

Tuesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. East wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

:O
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2217. ronni9


R9
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1st time this year i seen this

Link



its going to be a long winter
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
since we are having these trough come down so early. Could we (in the south) have a really cold winter this year? I know in 97 or so we had an ice storm (which does NOT happen very often) and last year we actually had snow....just wondering....


Texas, you must be from extreme SE Texas. My 90 year country-boy grandfather said he had never seen ice like that. My dad sent me a picture of an ice covered tree with lush green grass under it. The website for the Lake Charles weather service has an interesting write up on that storm. We know people who had holes in their roofs from broken pine limbs.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



here in CA


Ah okay.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Uh...

where?




here in CA
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Quoting Tazmanian:
leves on are trees are turnig color has we talk


Uh...

where?

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Quoting tornadofan:


There you go again Taz - saying those four-lettered words!

LOL.



lol
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look at this

Link
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Quoting Tazmanian:
bring on the snow for FL


There you go again Taz - saying those four-lettered words!

LOL.
Member Since: April 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345
leves on are trees are turnig color has we talk
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Well, Taz you forget it conditions are just right at the right time in the right area you could be in a lot of trouble. Not an instant shutdown.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


YES!! Awesome concentration of dark blue in S. Florida.
what does that mean?
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we would have to have a vary cold cold snap for that
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Quoting docrod:


poof


Why would you ignore him?
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Quoting Ameister12:
I won't be surprised if pre-96L will be Hurricane Fran. Possibly a Bill repeat.




you have too have the right wind shear for that


all so it will go out too sea
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Quoting hurricane23:


Uh yea...BUT this is not your normal year by any means in fact iam really not expecting things to get to active across the caribbean and gulf as el nino becomes futher becomes established.The caribbean this season has been completely shut down which is a very typical of nino years.




well said 23 thank you
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2196. Fshhead
Quoting Orcasystems:


Well said.. Bravo :)


I second that BRAVO!!
I was around the one time it did snow here in Miami. That would be AWESOME if it happened again!! ;)
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El Nino conditions normally bring an early winter


i have noted tha the lows has in mb seen too be stronger this year in are winter storms i have noted that in the mode runs for the pass few one where the mbs seens to be lower is that conditions normally for a El Nino ???

am talking about the winter storms we get here in CA
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I won't be surprised if pre-96L will be Hurricane Fran. Possibly a Bill repeat.
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2192. docrod
Quoting iceman55:
Stormchaser2007 lol


poof
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2191. Fshhead
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
El Nino conditions normally bring an early winter. Remember the Great Lakes Blizzard in October 2006?


ANOTHER reason I think we are in for an early winter. I have even seen a couple of vultures down here in Miami already. They are a good fall signal. LOL
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Quoting reedzone:
Does anybody remember what October to November can do to Florida? Hurricane Season is by any means NOT over for the USA yet. Storms can form off of cold fronts or in the Carribean then get caught on a trough and move northeastward crossing the state.


Uh yea...BUT this is not your normal year by any means in fact iam really not expecting things to get to active across the caribbean and gulf as el nino becomes futher becomes established.The caribbean this season has been completely shut down which is a very typical of nino years.

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Quoting Tazmanian:
bring on the snow for FL


Well said.. Bravo :)
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Quoting IKE:


6-10 day temperature outlook.....




8-14 day temperature outlook.....



YES!! Awesome concentration of dark blue in S. Florida.
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since we are having these trough come down so early. Could we (in the south) have a really cold winter this year? I know in 97 or so we had an ice storm (which does NOT happen very often) and last year we actually had snow....just wondering....
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looks like we could have a pretty powerful CV hurricane with pre-96L
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2182. IKE
I'm ready for some cooler and drier weather. Glad to see that extended outlook.
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El Nino conditions normally bring an early winter. Remember the Great Lakes Blizzard in October 2006?
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bring on the snow for FL
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Quoting Weather456:
Post 2148, your bringing back memories...September 12 2006, hours become the Navy change 94L to 08L Noname

94L Update:
A tropical wave along 22W, accompanied by a 1008mbar low near 13N/20.5W is on the verge of becoming TD8. Quiksat pass, visible imagery loops, 850mb streamline winds, buoys and ships and land-based stations in the Verde islands, suggest 94L has a circulation that either closed or almost closed.

Visible appearance revealed outflow developing to the West, banding in almost every quadrant and well established convection around the low.

Though the low is missing on important ingredient - its winds. The winds in 94L are around 20-25knots, and this is suggested by buoys and stations in the Cape Verde Islands along with quiksat.

The system will be mostly under the influence of an upper air high that will provide low wind shear and divergence aloft leading to intensification.

The low will continue west along the southern periphery of a ridge of high pressure near 25-30W, then turn more north after that, providing that it strengthens.



Ah Helene...very similar to the current african wave.

Helene when it was classified.
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2177. Fshhead
I know I am certainly happy! Been a brutal past month or so down in Miami. Very very humid from all the rainfall.
BRING ON WINTER!!
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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