Key West's hurricane grotto works again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 AM GMT on September 21, 2005

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Tonight I don't want to think about what Rita is doing, or where she might go, or how strong she might be. I just want to be thankful for small miracles. In my blog entry for Sunday, I talked about the church in Key West called the St. Mary's Star of the Sea Roman Catholic Church. In 1922, a nun built a "hurricane grotto" on the grounds of the church in memory of the 600 who died during the great Atlantic-Gulf hurricane of Sept. 10, 1919, a Category 4 hurricane that made a direct hit on Key West. The nun vowed that as long as the grotto stood, Key West would not suffer the brunt of another hurricane. Well, the protection of the grotto worked again. Key West barely escaped the brunt of a severe hurricane that could have been so very much worse. Had Rita's intensification cycle started 24 hours earlier, and she tracked 50 miles further north, the city of Key West would have been devastated. The Key West airport never measured sustained hurricane force winds from Rita, although the National Hurricane Center did receive an unofficial report of sustained winds of 75 mph with gusts to 102 mph in the Key West area. There was flooding and wind damage that will no doubt add up to tens of millions of dollars, but Kest West is feeling lucky tonight. Key Westers, pay a visit to your grotto tomorrow and give thanks!

Jeff Masters

The Grotto (2) (Cayogal)
Another view of The Grotto in Key West, Florida...keeping us safe from Hurricanes.
The Grotto (2)

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761. nodakgirl
5:44 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Mandatory evacuation of Mustang Island (Port Aransas). All residents to be off The Island by Noon tomorrow (Thursday). I'm getting a "vibe" that Rita's Wrath will put Ground Zero at Quintana Beach/Freeport. About an hour West of Galveston; 180 miles East of Corpus.
760. buoyking
3:27 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
SEV WEATHER NEXT 24 HRS
**ADVISORIES: A Hurricane Warning is in effect beyond 60nm in all areas. A small craft advisory is in effect from the Atchafalaya River to Pensacola out 60nm. Advisories and warnings are likely for all other areas within the next 24 hours.
**WEATHER: None currently. Thunderstorms may develop in deeper waters from East Breaks to Desoto Canyon this afternoon and early this evening.
**SEAS: Seas higher than forecast in or near any thunderstorms or squalls.
**WINDS: Winds briefly in excess of forecast conditions are possible within thunderstorms and squalls.
_______________________________________________________

SWELLS/TIDES/CURRENTS Building easterly swells are expected across the northern Gulf from today into Thursday. Tides are forecast to become slightly above normal for the Texas coast from today into Thursday. Tides are forecast to become above normal from the Louisiana waters and eastward from today into Thursday. Currents are forecast to become slightly above normal across the Texas waters from today into tonight before becoming above normal Thursday. Currents are expected to become above normal from the Louisiana waters and eastward from today into Thursday.

TROPICAL WEATHER
GULF OF MEXICO: At 0400CDT Wednesday, Hurricane Rita was located near 24.3N 84.6W, or about 175 miles west of Key West, Florida. This system is moving west at 14mph, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and a minimum central pressure of 956 mb. Please refer to the latest bulletin for more information. CARIBBEAN SEA: Widely scattered thunderstorms are noted over the northeastern Caribbean, as well as over parts of the west-central Caribbean, between Jamaica and Panama. None of this activity is expected to develop over the next couple of days. ATLANTIC OCEAN: At 0400CDT Wednesday, Tropical Storm Philippe was located near 19.5N 57.5W or about 325 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. The system is moving northward near 5 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and a minimum central pressure of 994 mb. Please refer to the latest bulletin for more information. Three tropical waves are noted between 35W and 50W, south of 19N. These waves are moving westward at about 15mph, with no development expected along any of these areas. Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected through Thursday.

SPECIAL NOTES
Wilkens Weather Technologies is pleased to announce a new service available to all clients through our website. Beginning Monday, July 18th, 2005, our clients will be able to access a streaming video tropical weather discussion, which will provide a summary of the weather situation in the Atlantic basin each day throughout the hurricane season. Featured will be details of any tropical system which has potential to significantly affect the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea, what those effects are likely to be and where and when those effects are likely to occur.

**** 24 HOUR FORECAST / Time Period: Wednesday 06:00 to Thursday 06:00 ****
24 HOUR TEXAS WEATHER
Texas waters near shore/offshore: Partly cloudy today. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight. Vis 7+mi, 3mi or less in showers and thunderstorms.

24 HOUR LOUISIANA WEATHER
Louisiana waters near shore/offshore: Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms today. Becoming mostly cloudy with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight. Vis 7+mi, 3mi or less in showers and thunderstorms. Waters to the east of the Delta: Becoming mostly cloudy with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight. Vis: 7+mi, 3mi or less in showers and thunderstorms.

***LEGEND:***
Data is shown in the order of winds, then waves. NS = Near Shore Winds. OS = Offshore Winds. OCS = Outer Continental Shelf Winds. Wind = All Winds, (Near Shore, Offshore, and Outer Continental Shelf). Waves given are in the format of the range of waves in feet followed by a '/' and then the period in seconds. If no wave direction is specified, it is the same as the wind direction. M indicates a mixed sea condition. Any Other direction given indicates a swell from that particular direction is the primary wave.
Wed 06:00 to Wed 12:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS N 8-13 N 8-13 NNE 12-17 NE 15-22 ENE 15-22 ENE 15-22
OS N 10-15 N 10-15 NNE 15-22 NNE 18-25 NE 20-25 NE 20-25
OCS N 12-17 N 13-18 NNE 15-22 NNE 20-30 NE 25-30 NE 25-30
Waves
02F 2-3/5 M 2-3/12 M 2-4/12 M 4-6/12 M 4-6/12 M 4-6/12
05F 2-4/5 M 2-4/12 M 3-5/12 M 4-7/12 M 5-7/12 M 5-7/12
10F 2-4/5 M 2-4/12 M 4-6/12 M 5-8/12 M 6-9/12 M 7-9/12
25F 2-4/5 M 3-5/12 M 4-7/12 M 6-9/12 M 7-10/12 M 8-12/12
50F 2-4/5 M 3-5/12 M 5-8/12 M 7-10/12 M 8-13/12 M 10-15/12
100F 2-4/5 M 3-5/12 M 5-8/12 M 7-10/12 M 8-13/12 M 10-15/12
Comments: S PADRE TO PENSACOLA WINDS BECOMING THESE LEVELS DURING THE MORNING, WAVES INCREASING TO THESE LEVELS DURING THE MORNING
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wed 12:00 to Wed 18:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS NE 7-12 VAR 5-10 NE 15-20 NE 20-28 ENE 15-20 ENE 15-20
OS N 10-15 NNE 10-15 NNE 15-22 NE 25-32 ENE 20-25 ENE 20-25
OCS N 12-17 NNE 12-17 NNE 18-25 NNE 25-35 NE 25-35 NE 25-35
Waves
02F M 2-4/12 M 2-4/12 M 3-5/13 M 5-7/13 M 5-7/13 M 5-7/13
05F M 3-5/12 M 3-5/12 M 4-6/13 M 6-9/13 M 6-9/13 M 6-9/13
10F M 3-5/12 M 3-5/12 M 5-7/13 M 7-10/13 M 7-10/13 M 8-12/13
25F M 4-7/12 M 4-6/12 M 6-9/13 M 8-13/13 M 9-13/13 M 10-13/13
50F M 4-7/12 M 4-7/12 M 7-10/13 M 8-13/13 M 10-15/13 M 12-17/13
100F M 4-7/12 M 5-8/12 M 8-12/13 M 10-15/13 M 12-17/13 M 15-20/13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wed 18:00 to Thu 00:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS N 5-10 NE 8-15 NE 15-20 E 15-20 E 17-22 E 17-22
OS N 8-15 NNE 12-20 NE 20-27 ENE 20-30 ENE 20-30 E 20-30
OCS NNE 15-22 NNE 18-25 NNE 51-32 NE 30-40 ENE 30-40 E 30-40
Waves
02F M 3-5/13 M 3-5/13 M 4-6/13 M 4-6/13 M 5-8/13 M 5-7/13
05F M 4-6/13 M 5-7/13 M 5-8/13 M 7-10/13 M 7-10/13 M 6-9/13
10F M 6-8/13 M 6-9/13 M 7-12/13 M 9-13/13 M 9-13/13 M 8-12/13
25F M 7-10/13 M 7-10/13 M 10-15/13 M 10-15/13 M 10-15/13 M 10-15/13
50F M 8-12/13 M 8-13/13 M 12-17/13 M 12-17/13 M 12-17/13 M 12-17/13
100F M 8-12/13 M 10-14/13 M 12-17/13 M 15-22/13 M 15-22/13 M 15-22/13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thu 00:00 to Thu 06:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS NNE 12-17 NE 15-25 ENE 20-27 ENE 25-35 E 18-25 ESE 17-22
OS NNE 15-20 NE 20-27 NE 22-32 ENE 32-42 E 25-32 ESE 20-30
OCS NNE 18-25 NE 22-30 NNE 32-42 NE 40-55 E 30-40 SE 25-35
Waves
02F M 4-6/13 M 4-7/13 M 5-8/13 M 5-8/13 M 6-9/13 M 5-8/12
05F M 5-8/13 M 6-8/13 M 7-10/13 M 8-13/13 M 8-13/13 M 8-13/12
10F M 7-10/13 M 9-12/13 M 9-13/13 M 12-17/13 M 10-15/13 M 11-16/12
25F M 10-15/13 M 10-15/13 M 10-15/13 M 16-24/13 M 12-17/13 M 13-18/12
50F M 10-15/13 M 10-15/13 M 12-17/13 M 20-27/13 M 15-20/13 M 13-18/12
100F M 10-15/13 M 12-17/13 M 15-22/13 M 20-27/13 M 15-22/13 M 13-18/12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
**** 48 HOUR FORECAST / Time Period: Thursday 06:00 to Friday 06:00 ****
48 HOUR TEXAS WEATHER
Texas waters near shore/offshore: Partly to mostly cloudy with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Becoming mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday night. Vis 7+mi, 3mi or less in showers and thunderstorms.

48 HOUR LOUISIANA WEATHER
Louisiana waters near shore/offshore and Waters to the East of the Delta: Becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy with scattered to numerous showers, thunderstorms, and squalls. **CAUTION IS ADVISED** Vis 7+mi, 3mi or less in showers and thunderstorms, and 1mi or less in squalls.

Thu 06:00 to Thu 12:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS NE 15-22 NE 20-27 NE 20-30 E 25-35 E 20-25 ESE 15-20
OS NE 18-25 NE 25-32 NE 30-45 E 30-45 ESE 20-30 SE 20-27
OCS NNE 20-30 NNE 25-35 NNE 35-55 E 40-70 ESE 30-40 SE 25-35
Waves
02F 4-7/13 5-8/13 6-9/13 6-9/13 6-9/12 5-8/12
05F 6-9/13 7-10/13 8-13/13 8-13/13 8-13/12 8-13/12
10F 8-13/13 10-15/13 12-17/13 12-17/13 10-15/12 10-15/12
25F 10-15/13 12-17/13 18-25/13 18-25/13 10-15/12 10-15/12
50F 12-18/13 15-22/13 20-27/13 20-27/13 12-20/12 10-15/12
100F 12-18/13 18-25/13 20-27/13 22-30/13 12-20/12 10-15/12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thu 12:00 to Thu 18:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS NNE 20-27 NE 25-30 E 25-35 E 25-35 E 20-25 ESE 15-20
OS NNE 25-30 NNE 30-45 E 40-60 E 30-50 ESE 20-30 SE 18-25
OCS NNE 25-35 NNE 40-70 E 60-99 ESE 40-70 SE 25-40 SSE 20-30
Waves
02F 5-8/13 6-9/13 6-9/13 5-8/13 5-7/12 5-7/12
05F 7-10/13 9-12/13 10-15/13 8-13/13 8-13/12 6-9/12
10F 10-15/13 12-18/13 13-20/13 12-20/13 10-15/13 7-10/12
25F 12-18/13 18-25/13 20-30/13 18-25/13 10-18/12 8-12/12
50F 18-25/13 20-27/13 25-35/13 20-30/13 12-20/12 8-12/12
100F 18-25/13 25-30/13 30-40/13 25-35/13 12-20/12 8-12/12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thu 18:00 to Fri 00:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS N 20-30 NE 25-35 E 25-40 E 25-35 ESE 18-25 SE 15-20
OS N 25-35 NNE 35-50 E 40-70 E 35-50 SE 20-25 SE 18-25
OCS N 30-40 N 60-90 E 60-99 ESE 35-55 SE 20-30 SSE 20-27
Waves
02F 6-9/13 6-9/13 6-9/13 5-8/13 5-7/12 4-7/12
05F 9-12/13 9-12/13 10-15/13 8-13/13 6-9/12 5-8/12
10F 15-20/13 12-20/13 13-25/13 12-20/13 8-13/13 6-9/12
25F 18-25/13 18-30/13 25-40/13 15-25/13 8-13/12 7-10/12
50F 20-30/13 25-40/13 25-40/13 15-30/13 10-15/12 7-10/12
100F 20-30/13 25-40/13 35-45/13 15-30/13 10-15/12 7-10/12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fri 00:00 to Fri 06:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS NNW 20-30 NE 30-40 E 25-35 ESE 25-35 E 20-30 E 15-25
OS NNW 30-40 NE 40-65 E 45-75 SE 25-35 SE 20-30 SE 15-25
OCS NNW 40-50 NE 55-99 ESE 55-99 SSE 30-40 SSE 20-30 SSE 15-25
Waves
02F 6-9/13 6-9/13 6-9/13 5-8/13 5-7/12 5-7/12
05F 9-12/13 10-15/13 10-15/13 8-13/13 6-9/12 6-9/12
10F 12-18/13 15-30/13 15-25/13 12-20/13 7-10/12 7-10/12
25F 18-25/13 40-55/13 25-45/13 15-25/13 8-12/12 7-10/12
50F 25-35/13 40-55/13 25-45/13 15-30/13 10-15/12 7-10/12
100F 25-35/13 40-55/13 40-50/13 15-30/13 10-15/12 7-10/12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
**** 72 HOUR FORECAST / Time Period: Friday 06:00 to Saturday 06:00 ****
72 HOUR WEATHER
Texas waters: Becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy with scattered to numerous showers, thunderstorms, and squalls. **CAUTION IS ADVISED** Vis: 7+mi, 3mi or less in showers and thunderstorms, 1mi or less in squalls. Louisiana waters: Mostly cloudy to cloudy with scattered to numerous showers, thunderstorms, and squalls. **Caution is advised** Vis: 7+mi, 3mi or less in showers and thunderstorms, and 1mi or less in squalls. Waters to the East of the Delta: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Vis: 7+mi, 3mi or less in showers and thunderstorms.

Fri 06:00 to Fri 18:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS NNW 25-35 NE 30-40 E 25-35 ESE 25-35 SE 20-30 SE 15-25
OS NNW 35-50 NE 40-50 E 35-50 SE 25-35 SE 20-30 SE 15-25
OCS NNW 40-55 NE 55-99 ESE 35-55 SSE 25-35 SSE 20-30 SSE 15-25
Waves
02F 6-9/13 6-9/13 5-8/13 5-7/13 5-7/12 4-6/12
05F 9-12/13 10-20/13 8-13/13 8-13/13 6-9/12 5-7/12
10F 12-18/13 20-35/13 12-16/13 10-15/13 7-10/12 6-8/12
25F 18-25/13 40-55/13 18-25/13 10-15/13 8-12/12 6-8/12
50F 25-35/13 40-55/13 20-30/13 12-18/13 8-12/12 6-8/12
100F 25-35/13 40-55/13 25-35/13 12-18/13 8-12/12 6-8/12
Comments: MATAGORDA IS TO GALVESTON MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE EYEWALL ARE LIKELY TO BE 120-140MPH, MAXIMUM WAVES IN/NEAR THE EYEWALL ARE LIKELY TO BE 50-60FT IN DEEP WATER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fri 18:00 to Sat 06:00
S Padre / Mat Is Brazos / East Cam Vermilion / S Shoal S Timb / S Pass Main Pass / Viosca Kn Mobile / Pensacola
Winds
NS NW 20-30 SE 45-99 SE 25-35 SE 20-35 SE 15-25 SE 15-25
OS W 30-40 SSE 40-75 SE 25-45 SE 20-35 SE 15-25 SE 15-25
OCS WSW 40-50 S 35-55 SSE 30-50 SSE 20-35 SSE 15-25 SSE 15-25
Waves
02F 5-8/13 6-9/13 5-8/13 5-7/13 4-6/12 4-6/12
05F 8-12/13 15-25/13 8-13/13 7-10/13 5-8/12 5-7/12
10F 12-18/13 40-55/13 12-16/13 9-14/13 7-10/12 6-8/12
25F 18-25/13 40-55/13 15-25/13 9-14/13 7-10/12 6-8/12
50F 20-30/13 30-40/13 15-30/13 9-14/13 7-10/12 6-8/12
100F 20-30/13 25-35/13 15-30/13 9-14/13 7-10/12 6-8/12
Comments: MATAGORDA IS TO GALVESTON MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE EYEWALL ARE LIKELY TO BE 120-140MPH, MAXIMUM WAVES IN/NEAR THE EYEWALL ARE LIKELY TO BE 50-60FT IN DEEP WATER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EXTENDED OUTLOOK TX

Day Wind Conditions
(Avg for the Day) Wave Conditions (Ft=Feet, F=Fathoms, R=Random) Weather Conditions
SAT DECRG GRADUALLY 02F MIX DEC 4-6FT SQUALLS
TO SW-S 20-30MPH 10F MIX DEC 9-13FT SQUALLS
25/50F MIX DEC 9-13FT SQUALLS
100F MIX DEC 9-13FT SQUALLS
SUN SSE-SSW 20-25MPH 02F S DEC 3-5FT MC/SCT TS
10F S DEC 6-8FT MC/SCT TS
25/50F S DEC 6-8FT MC/SCT TS
100F S DEC 6-8FT MC/SCT TS
MON SW-S 15-20MPH 02F SE-S 2-4FT PC/ISO TS
10F SE-S 4-6FT PC/ISO TS
25/50F SE-S 4-6FT PC/ISO TS
100F SE-S 4-6FT PC/ISO TS
TUE S-SE 10-20MPH 02F SE-S 2-3FT PC/ISO TS
10F SE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS
25/50F SE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS
100F SE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS

EXTENDED OUTLOOK LA/MS/AL

Day Wind Conditions
(Avg for the Day) Wave Conditions (Ft=Feet, F=Fathoms, R=Random) Weather Conditions
SAT DEC SE-S 15-25MPH 02F DEC MIX 4-6FT MC/SCT TS
10F DEC MIX 7-10FT MC/SCT TS
25/50F DEC MIX 7-10FT MC/SCT TS
100F DEC MIX 7-10FT MC/SCT TS
SUN DEC SE-S 15-20MPH 02F DEC S 3-5FT MC/SCT TS
10F DEC S 5-8FT MC/SCT TS
25/50F DEC S 5-8FT MC/SCT TS
100F DEC S 5-8FT MC/SCT TS
MON SE-S 10-20MPH 02F SE-S 2-3FT PC/ISO TS
10F ESE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS
25/50F ESE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS
100F ESE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS
TUE ESE-SE 10-20MPH 02F SE-S 2-3FT PC/ISO TS
10F ESE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS
25/50F ESE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS
100F ESE-S 3-5FT PC/ISO TS

759. SEFL
2:40 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
"expresso shots"

FYI

ESpresso
758. Skyepony (Mod)
2:36 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Here's the link to the main page of the UCF damage prediction estimates, it also has estimates for the oil industy in the area. Make sure you've scolled to the right storm (it covers them all) & the oil estimates have a different link in the page than the land estimates. It's quite interactive(you can get it down to the major roads) once you get to the storm, was pretty right on with Katrina, they've posted their before & afters on that one Link
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37331
757. Pensacola21
2:31 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Dr. Masters has a blog update
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
756. aquak9
2:31 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
new thread ya'll
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25731
755. hookedontropics
2:29 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Link

Finally, here is the link that shows the wave forecast, DOES NOT INCLUDE SURGE
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
754. oriondarkwood
2:27 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
hookedontropics,

check these links about uploading photos

http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/faq/photoupload.html

http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/uploadimage.html
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
753. oriondarkwood
2:25 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Hookedontropics,

Yea the place (Starbucks) needs a translation guide to go with the coffee. Took me a couple of months to learn the things I commonly order ie:

Grande Cof (pronounced cough) Day Dub Blackeye - Coffee of the Day with 4 expresso shots

Grande Cof Frap Dub Blackeye - Coffee Frappannico with 4 expresson shots

And from what I heard/know it differs what city you are in, sometimes even different stores in the same area.

That and it changes from time to time.
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
752. Obsidian
2:24 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Since Rita will make landfall moving in a Westerly motion. Does this mean that where ever it hits will be hit by the "weaker" side of the storm first, then get slammed by the stronger north east eye wall. Does this mean that the storm surge on the western half of the storm is not as strong as it is on the eastern side of the storm?
751. hookedontropics
2:24 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
how do you post a pic?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
750. 53rdWeatherRECON
2:22 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
A strong CAT 5 will loose feeder bands.
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
749. jldfish
2:22 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
I see

tnx for link
748. jldfish
2:21 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
ok no true donut but ir looks scary
747. 53rdWeatherRECON
2:19 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Not a doughnut yetCore has to fill in
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
746. hookedontropics
2:19 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
both wave and surge.. i will find link...
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
745. 53rdWeatherRECON
2:18 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
jldfish, not yet, close though. When the eye expands again and you will see the whole system will actually look more like a saw blade. A giant core with small fringes on the outside. I predicted by 2:00pm - 5:00 EST today.
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
744. jldfish
2:17 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
stll wondering about risk to LBJ space center

(NASA fan)

743. raindancer
2:17 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
SaCaCh - Great post! Thanks. The analysis is quite insightful and not filled with drama like so many posts.
Member Since: September 14, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
742. hookedontropics
2:17 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
yes, and my wife is suspicious of my relations of the starbucks folks...they call me Mr. Machiato..lol
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
741. gbundersea
2:16 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Sebastian: Yes, I'm curious too about the winds/distance, since I'm currently in Gonzales and today was when I would've been allowed back to what's left of my home to recover the few things which may have survived. However, the parish is closed, and there's no telling when that will change. In spite of the distance, I suspect the storm may raise and churn up the Gulf enough to put at least some water back into St. Bernard, pushing things back further. Like Hookedontropics, I'd like to see a surge map. Supposedly, given the current state of the levees, a surge of only about 3' and/or heavy rains will cause another, albeit much lesser, flood in areas like St. Bernard and possibly parts of NOLA. Not that it can do any more damage to my home; I'm just sick of hanging around. Chances are I'll drive back to my refuge in NE Georgia today, and come back when Rita is long gone.
740. oriondarkwood
2:16 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
jldfish,

(pats belly), Mmmm dounut (drools like Homer Simpson)
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
739. oriondarkwood
2:16 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Why are people forecasting 40 foot surge, because of forward speed of Rita or is thier something at work I am not aware of?
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
738. oriondarkwood
2:14 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
hookedontropics,

Yea the staff at the local Starbuck's know me on a first name basis. Repostioning client repositioning, pray tell what do you do (I am guessing stock broker/mutal fund manager)
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
737. theWoodman
2:14 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
I'm in Bridge City Texas. Expect a mandatory evacuation call for Sabine Pass this afternoon. Not sure about a mandatory evacuation for the rest of Jefferson and Orange Counties. My plan is to stay. If she makes a last minute jog to the right and comes in between Galveston and Sabine Pass, I will jump on hwy 62 to 96 and head north.
736. windymiller
2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
hookedontropics - thanks the info
735. SWLAStormFanatic
2:09 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
40 foot surge and waves?!?!?!?!? Bye bye to the Strand!
734. raindancer
2:09 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
What is the population further south from Galveston - and north of Corpus Christi? I'm not familiar with the area - but on the map it looks pretty empty (less a few towns). I'm assuming if Rita comes in just north of Corpus - then damage amounts would be quite small, no?
Member Since: September 14, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
733. SaCaCh
2:09 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
I dont know if anyone has read this guy, but he does breakdowns at MillenniumWeather.com

O.k., now on to Rita... I'm not going to play forecast police, but given the criticality of the forecast (a potential major hurricane landfall in the U.S.), I do want to make a quick point about some forecasts floating around. Several forecasters, keyed into the 500mb ridge depiction on a few models are stating with near certainty that Rita cannot landfall north of south Texas. This is hugely important as central/north Texas has some fairly significant cities while south Texas contains the least populated coastal county in the nation, Kenedy, surrounded by only a couple of cities. This 500mb ridge obsession is wretched oversimplification. For one, the 500mb ridge depiction supporting a south Texas landfall is only put forth by a few models. For another, assuming 500mb is the only steering level is simply incorrect, especially for a strong hurricane; the 300mb and 200mb flow is more supportive of a central or possibly north Texas landfall. I'm not saying a south Texas landfall will not happen! In fact, if those models with the more stout, stagnant 500mb ridges are correct, the deep layer mean flow WOULD be into south Texas, as the 500mb flow actually probably favors landfall even into northern Mexico, while the 300mb and 200mb flow favors Corpus Christi to Matagorda... so, the deep layer mean would be in between. My point is, counting out central and northern Texas is simply incorrect. TPC/NHC's analysis is dead-on correct, in my opinion, and it's one of the reasons my forecast and their's hasn't varied much in the past few days, and it still won't today...


There is very little change in the thinking, but the confidence level has increased significantly. There has been a marked convergence of the model solutions, especially with the eternally-south NOGAPS pulling up to a landfall on the central Texas coast. There has even been some convergence on landfall timing, with most models focusing it around later Saturday morning. Meanwhile, Rita's significant intensification yesterday bolstered the intensity forecast confidence; recall, given her fast motion, I was unsure if she'd make the leap in intensity that I was predicting. Well, she slowed down throughout the day Tuesday and, in fact, if anything, was ahead of schedule on her intensity. Indeed, this morning Rita is already a major hurricane at 105kts and, as TPC/NHC correctly pointed out in their 5AM EDT update, this may well be conservative. So, the previous forecast is very much on target with a slight bump up in intensity and a slight delay in landfall timing (I was previously aiming at early Satuday morning). Now, on to the discussion...


Current Conditions: Those who read the TPC/NHC discussions are likely already aware of this... the recon data has been scant this morning due to aircraft problems. The last report was almost 10hrs ago (as of 7AM EDT Wed); it reported a 965mb pressure and maximum flight level winds of 103kts. Given Rita's extreme efficiency at mixing winds down (dropsondes and SMFR data for the past two days have shown maximum sustained surface winds equal to or, at times, even exceeding, the maximum flight level winds). So, it is fair to say that Rita was probably at about 100kts by then. Since then, no recon. At 07Z (even that's about 5hrs ago) SAB and AFWA both came in with satellite Dvorak estimates of 6.0, equating to 115kts. Since that time, Rita's deepest convection became more symmetric, though just within the past hour or so it has lessened a bit, especially on the east side. So, Rita is likely the same or SLIGHTLY stronger than at 07Z. As such, I would estimate her to be near 115kts; officially, she's at 105kts. As for her motion, without recon we can only use satellite fixes. At least, in that regard, Rita's fairly well defined eye gives us a very high confidence fix... Using the 00Z to 07Z fix positions Rita is moving 279-degrees at 11kts.


Model Discussion: Basically we'll just do the rundown of the model solutions here. Given the very straight forward reason for the differences again (handling of the ridge), this continues to be a "synoptically dull" forecast. Moreover, with the same issues at play for the past two to three days, I begin sounding like a broken record. In fact, in general, even the same model tendencies remain in play, even though the NOGAPS has pulled north. For example, the NAM remains on the south side of the guidance while the GFS remains on the north side. New model runs, same story. So, here's how the models line up with their landfall predictions... The 06Z NAM has landfall near Corpus Christi around midday Sat. The 06Z GFS is in the Freeport or Matagorda area with its landfall Sat AM. The 06Z NOGAPS now has landfall near Port O'Connor, TX Sat afternoon. The 00Z GGEM has shifted south a bit... it now has a Sat AM landfall around Port O'Connor or Port Aransas. The 00Z UKMET is up closer to a Matagorda landfall Sat AM. The 00Z ECMWF is nearly identical, PERHAPS down the coast just a bit nearer to Port O'Connor. The 06Z GFDL is fairly quick, with landfall rather early Sat AM near Matagorda.


My thinking: Difficult to say much here either as there are virtually no changes to the forecast and the models are converging nicely around the previous forecast. Over the past few days we have focused the landfall from Freeport down to Port O'Connor, with the most recent being the furthest south, down towards Port O'Connor. This is near the heart of the model guidance, with perhaps the precise consensus being up just a bit closer to Matagorda. For a three day (plus) forecast this is splitting hairs down to an unforecastable level. That is, those two locations are only about 40 miles apart along the coastline and I don't know of anyone who can claim such accuracy in a three day forecast. I sure can't. So, going against what I generally do, I will simply follow the model consensus and shift my forecast back north slightly, up towards Matagorda. But, with a couple of models still aiming a little further south, towards Corpus Christi or Port Aransas, I would continue to warn that there are some "options" here. And, while I called the pattern "synoptically dull", there is one interesting and difficult complication... as discussed earlier, the flow at 500mb verus 300mb is not lined up terribly well. So, whichever "controls" will drive Rita. Given her strength, I'm not too concerned with going against the southernmost solutions, as that would follow the slightly more shallow steering flow. Nonetheless, all coastal residents in Texas should stay on alert. Though, clearly, the consensus and confidence is building... with the southernmost solution in Corpus Christi and the northernmost near Freeport, we're obviously aiming towards central Texas. Sure, this could change, which is why I say all of coastal Texas needs to continue paying attention, but there is certainly some increase in the expectation that this will verify.


As for Rita's intensity... as she is now ahead of the curve with her intensity, I'm going to peak her a little higher than I previously had. However, given the most recent satellite trends (with weakening convection on her east side) I'm not going to go hog wild with this (although that weakening could, of course, be very temporary). So, I'll peak her out at about 130kts. Then, as she makes the turn, much as in the past couple of forecasts, I'll begin to impart some slow weakening. However, I will still have her making landfall as about a 110kt hurricane. If anything, I would suspect that my landfall intensity is a bit conservative... though I still don't think 100kts is out of the question, which is why I'm setting it at 110kts. Incidentally, the landfall timing should be sometime late Saturday morning, but that's the timing of her center... She should begin impacting the coast by very late Friday night. So, Thursday (assuming the forecast holds by then) and Friday should be used to complete preparations for Rita. Don't wait until early Sat AM with the expectation that she'll "hit" late that morning.






-Gary

732. jldfish
2:09 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Houston
we have a doughnut

anybody know the risk to the LBJ space center?
731. hookedontropics
2:06 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
I can not get to the NHC from work... Someone post Wave forecasts..

Accuweathers site, has 40 ft surge and waves hitting Galveston Bay....
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
730. gbundersea
2:06 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Great advice, Ralph. One should NEVER trust these "500 year floodplain" BS declarations. Always get the h*ll outta Dodge, and always carry flood insurance! It's cheap. The annual premium on my now-flooded (8-10' deep) St. Bernard home was only about $300.00.
729. sebastianjer
2:04 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Thanks GB , just wondering cause TS winds extend out 140 miles
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
728. Skyepony (Mod)
2:03 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Here's a WV loop Link Central Fl getting alot of rain & lightning from the outer most bands, Lightning = great intensification? right. I only remember 1 other tropical system from when I was a kid with lightnin, that one blew up.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37331
727. gbundersea
2:01 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Sebastianjer: Straight-line distance from Galveston to NOLA is about 300 miles.
726. ralphfurley
2:01 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
anyone know if Dr Neil Frank still does the weather in Houston? I remember watching him in Miami years ago. Always remember his advice---Hide from the wind, run from the water.

Dont gamble that your floodplain can take a cat 4 not a cat 5. Do the smart thing--run.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
725. pseabury
2:00 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Galveston -> NOLA is 285 Miles like a crow.
Member Since: May 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
724. hookedontropics
1:59 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
orion...what? lol, I needed that this morning... I am ancy about this.. I am repositioning client portfolios based on this storm..
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
723. windymiller
1:57 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Anybody know what the storm surge will be either side of where she hits - wondering the effect on the refineries at Corpus and Texas City if the hit is Matagorda Is
722. amd
1:55 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
it looks like, at least on satellite, that the eye is shrinking in size. The winds are probably pushing 140 mph right now.

I'm worried that the eye replacement cycle will begin sooner, before the storm gets to the loop current in the gulf. If that happens, I think it is very possible that the storm will be a cat 5 at some point.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
721. 8888888889gg
1:53 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
i bet by time 2pm or 5pm we will have a cat 5 what do you all think?
720. oriondarkwood
1:53 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
hookedontropics,

Thanks, teach me not to look at sat pics before I have my first quart of expresso (I drink between .5 and 1.5 quarts of express, dark and sweet a day)
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
719. Obsidian
1:51 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Since Rita will make landfall moving in a Westerly motion. Does this mean that where ever it hits will be hit by the "weaker" side of the storm first, then get slammed by the stronger north east eye wall. Does this mean that the storm surge on the western half of the storm is not as strong as it is on the eastern side of the storm?
718. sebastianjer
1:50 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Does anyone know, as the crow flys, how far it is from Galveston to NOLA?
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 1030 Comments: 11197
717. hookedontropics
1:47 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Storm top, do you think she will be going NW, NNW, N or NE at land fall?

Do you think that will be determined by forward speed of the storm?

It seems the worst case scenario is playing out and with forward speed between 12 and 15mph, she will have Hurrican winds 100 miles inland, and TS much further, if she is going NW,
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 127
716. SaCaCh
1:46 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
latest infared looks mighty scary, Rita finally has the round eye surrounded by a round blob on covection. I bet 11 with be at least 145, if the winds have caught up.
715. SWLAStormFanatic
1:44 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Yeh, what the chemical muck coming down the Miss from NOLA won't kill in the gulf, the radiation will. lol
714. hurricanewayne
1:42 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Now would be a good time to drop a nuke on Rita!
713. SWLAStormFanatic
1:41 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Iam, when we bought this house two years ago, I saw a flood map...we're in a 500 yr floodplain. I think (that's only my humble opinion though) that where I am we could sustain a cat 4 surge...but I'm not so sure about a cat 5. I don't know what the exact elevation is here though.
712. SaCaCh
1:41 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
I agree with you completely Stormtop.
711. zakelwe
1:40 PM GMT on September 21, 2005
Thanks for the information on sea termpatures.

Although they are lower than Katrina it must be noted that the track that Rita is taking is longer than the track Katrina took in the Gulf and it will be interesting to sea how much enrgy Rita can taken onboard.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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