Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

McAfee virus alert messages
A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:
6Z GFS at 96 hours. Note the low in the northern GOM....



I have been watching that for a couple of days. The home grown ones scare me the most. Est since the models keep wanting to bring it my way.
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Quoting IKE:
6Z GFS at 96 hours. Note the low in the northern GOM....



Saw that Ike. Have you read New Orleans NWS yet? I think they said it would probably go east of them. So you may get another blustery storm.
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Quoting reedzone:
However, shear has increased over night over the low, probably will get ripped apart until of IF it moves out of the area.


There will always be downcasters,lol
Someday you will be right,keep on trying,keep up the good work.
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wow so when something is in the GOM it a different tune.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting IKE:
6Z GFS at 96 hours. Note the low in the northern GOM....



I have never seen so many L in a map before..

BBL take care all be nice
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Good morning everyone. Looking at the PR radar it seems that X Erika is stalled or moving real real slow..
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However, shear has increased over night over the low, probably will get ripped apart until of IF it moves out of the area.

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1340. IKE
6Z GFS at 96 hours. Note the low in the northern GOM....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting reedzone:
I knew the NHC was too fast at killing Erika, seems like she might be a TD once again, nothing more.


she needs a sfc circ first.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Hey Garnsy!
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Quoting nishinigami:
Thank you Homelesswanderer.


Your welcome. :)
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Quoting Weather456:


tender loving care?


lots of that going around this morning on this blog, lets hope it stays that way..LOL
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I knew the NHC was too fast at killing Erika, seems like she might be a TD once again, nothing more.
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Thank you Homelesswanderer.
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Quoting Weather456:


tender loving care?


Thats my interpretation.
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Hello


lionel Richie,lol
Hello to you to.
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Quoting justalurker:


your not speaking from experience are you>>? j/k


Nah!! lol...(not saying i haven't wanted to) LOL
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Topic: *Quikscat Data Outage
*

Date/Time Issued*: September 04, 2009 1021 UTC*

Product(s) or Data Impacted: *Scatterometer data
*

Date/Time of Initial Impact: *September 03, 2009 2010 UTC*

Date/Time of Expected End: *Until Further Notice*

Length of Event: *Until further notice
*

Impacts on Users and Significance: *Users will not receive Quikscat
data.
*

User Actions: *None.*

Details/Specifics of Change:

*We have recovered the spacecraft. However, the instrument needs
more TLC
.
Any Sci data you receive is old. We will finish the recovery tomorrow,
and
give you a heads up when we expect to have good Sci data again.


tender loving care?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1328. Relix
So should I go to college or should I just wait here at home in PR and watch a rain event unfold. What say you WU!?
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Quoting lurkn4yrs:
Good morning everyone!

So I see my girl did not disappoint me..LOL.. She is like a girl who got dumped and now is a psycho seeking revenge.. LOl.. she's coming for the NHC..

good morning!!

your not speaking from experience are you>>? j/k
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Topic: *Quikscat Data Outage
*

Date/Time Issued*: September 04, 2009 1021 UTC*

Product(s) or Data Impacted: *Scatterometer data
*

Date/Time of Initial Impact: *September 03, 2009 2010 UTC*

Date/Time of Expected End: *Until Further Notice*

Length of Event: *Until further notice
*

Impacts on Users and Significance: *Users will not receive Quikscat
data.
*

User Actions: *None.*

Details/Specifics of Change:

*We have recovered the spacecraft. However, the instrument needs
more TLC
.
Any Sci data you receive is old. We will finish the recovery tomorrow,
and
give you a heads up when we expect to have good Sci data again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nishinigami:


What is Pat referring to here and when is this low expected?

Thank you



You can see it on the CMC and GFS. Click 850 vort on dropdown. I think about 96 hrs.Link
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Quoting tropicofcancer:
\

I don't know, but i tell you, after Erika a lot of mets may be considering LEAVING the proffesion. lol


while true, some did forecast Erika correctly.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Good morning everyone!

So I see my girl did not disappoint me..LOL.. She is like a girl who got dumped and now is a psycho seeking revenge.. LOl.. she's coming for the NHC..
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Erika will end up closer to jamaica then to hispanola.Luckely there are fast runners there.
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Quoting justalurker:
has anyone here started on this blog, and decided to change professions and enter meteorology field?

it might be a stupid question, but just curious!!
\

I don't know, but i tell you, after Erika a lot of mets may be considering LEAVING the proffesion. lol
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Quoting IKE:


Good morning.


couldnt sleep huh? need to get your fix in the morning? J/K

looking forward to what erika might not bring us today!!
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Tropical update
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1317. SQUAWK
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
1304. SQUAWK

That plan was issued yesterday before they stopped advisories. A flight at 2AM today was previously scheduled and they did not fly.


FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 77
A. 04/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0606A ERIKA
C. 04/0500Z
D. 18.3N 64.8W
E. 04/0515Z TO 04/1145Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT





Thanks!
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Quoting Patrap:
A Low will Slide down from The Mid Mississippi Vally down into the Western GOM off of Lake Charles ,Louisiana and, spin up In the Western GOM off of or Sw of Galveston.






What is Pat referring to here and when is this low expected?

Thank you

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1304. SQUAWK

That plan was issued yesterday before they stopped advisories. A flight at 2AM today was previously scheduled and they did not fly.


FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 77
A. 04/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0606A ERIKA
C. 04/0500Z
D. 18.3N 64.8W
E. 04/0515Z TO 04/1145Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



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1314. IKE
Quoting justalurker:


good morning ike, i see your up and early this morning..


Good morning.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Good Morning All! So what is up with Erika? Looks like she wants to come alive again?
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Quoting aquak9:
wow, I've never recieved so many answers! thanks folks, i really appreciate the input.

HW, I wish DMax would do that for me, too!

Good laugh for a morning!


be patient my young padawan, eventually someone will answer your questions..LOL
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It keeps on drifting WSW just as predicted.
But indeed a lot of shear ahead of her.
Reminds me of Fay.Hard to kill because there is not much to kill.
A lot of clouds drifting west.
Very dangerous if she ever gets her act together.But maybe she never will,lol.
Crazy.
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Quoting tropicofcancer:


Probably. Maybe it will star with you.

I'm sure as hell no expert , I can take the egg no problem , I had egg on my face before and I guess I'll get it again, but some can never be wrong no matter what.
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Quoting aquak9:
wow, I've never recieved so many answers! thanks folks, i really appreciate the input.

HW, I wish DMax would do that for me, too!

Good laugh for a morning!


Lol. That would be nice huh?
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Quoting IKE:


good morning ike, i see your up and early this morning..
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1307. aquak9
wow, I've never recieved so many answers! thanks folks, i really appreciate the input.

HW, I wish DMax would do that for me, too!

Good laugh for a morning!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1306. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
has anyone here started on this blog, and decided to change professions and enter meteorology field?

it might be a stupid question, but just curious!!
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1304. SQUAWK
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


If needed, but not on the previous schedule. They most likely are on stand by.


274
NOUS42 KNHC 031500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 03 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-098

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75
A. 04/1800Z, 05/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0706A ERIKA
C. 04/1700Z
D. 18.6N 66.7W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76
A. 05/600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0806A ERIKA
C. 05/0430Z
D. 19.6N 68.1W
E. 05/0645Z TO 05/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
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Quoting Relix:
Oh.. erm... good morning WU! =P


Lol. Good morning. And yes looks like she wants to live again. Cotillion may have been right. We may need some ghostbuster stuff to kill this girl off. Although she is averse to sunlight. Hmmm? Maybe a stake would work. lol.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


If needed, but not on the previous schedule. They most likely are on stand by.


thanks, very grateful for answering my questions..
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Six hour radar loop

Appears to be slowly moving SSW.
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Quoting justalurker:


do they still send HH ?


If needed, but not on the previous schedule. They most likely are on stand by.
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1299. Relix
Oh.. erm... good morning WU! =P
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1298. Relix
She redeveloped?!?!?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


While the NHC has stopped issuing public advisories, they are still tracking the system. They updated the 06Z position and updated models. It is still an active system but now basically treated as an "invest".


do they still send HH ?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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