Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

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Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

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1397. RJT185

Quoting mikatnight:
RIP: Really Interesting Phenomenon


True Story.
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1396. IKE
Quoting iluvjess:
IKE, see what the CMC brings to AL/FL in about 96 hours?


I see what you mean....

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1395. RJT185
Quoting viequessun:
Here in PR everybody forgot Erika we do go back to follow her closely or she is RIP?


Break out the DON-Q, shore up the muddy hilltops, and enjoy the rain clinking on the cinc-plank roof tops. :-) La Isla del Encanto seems to be in the clear ... aside from a fairly decent rain event.
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thanks Ike! Nature is to logic for us!
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Erika is not in a bad place for the moment.
Maybe she will stay there a little longer to blow up her convention.
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Hope quikscat catches it this am
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
1391. IKE
Quoting viequessun:
Here in PR everybody forgot Erika we do go back to follow her closely or she is RIP?


If I were you I think I would be following it. Looks like heavy rain for PR.....

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RIP: Really Interesting Phenomenon
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Center dead on 16N/66W.


Yep looks like. And in the last frame looked like developing stronger storms right there as well. In the daylight believe it or not. Lol
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IKE, see what the CMC brings to AL/FL in about 96 hours?
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Here in PR everybody forgot Erika we do go back to follow her closely or she is RIP?
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Her convention is a miracle.
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Center dead on 16N/66W.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Man, Erika has barely moved since Wednesday night.
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1383. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA ARE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WHILE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...IT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE
FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
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In the 40's where my family lives in South Bend, IN last night. BRRRRRR, that's early.
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Quoting iluvjess:
"What is Pat referring to here and when is this low expected?

Thank you
"

A troff split is anticipated tomorrow in the Western gulf. The remnants should move NE towards the Northern Gulf Coast early week. There is a chance this area could spin up as it moves through the Gulf.


It all depends on how much convention that low can generate.
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1380. IKE
Suppose to be a trough going through the gulf-coast states from west to east. That should eventually help to pull Erika like the models are showing.
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"What is Pat referring to here and when is this low expected?

Thank you
"

A troff split is anticipated tomorrow in the Western gulf. The remnants should move NE towards the Northern Gulf Coast early week. There is a chance this area could spin up as it moves through the Gulf.
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1378. RJT185
lol ... the models will need a drink once ms. erika is gone.
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Oh well. I tried.
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i realy love her convention,lol
good luck with the coffee.
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Quoting apocalyps:
convention is outstanding


Sigh. C'mon, can't ya at least wait til everyone has their coffee? ;)
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Quoting reedzone:
I knew the NHC was too fast at killing Erika, seems like she might be a TD once again, nothing more.


Oh, they're still watching. I was so happy when I heard the news last night.

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The former Erika is done for unless it can pass through a minumum of land, maybe Puerto Rico and just clip the eastern part of the Dominican Republic. If it makes it through, there's still some obstacles. It'll probably be a non-factor or a weak Danny-like system at best if it makes it through. Still, it's one of the best-looking remant lows that I have ever seen on satellite pictures.
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convention is outstanding
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convention is impressive
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1369. LUCARIO
erika is making a come back

Morning All,
Looks like Erika is doing her best to avoid land...

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Quoting reedzone:
The interesting thing is, like former-97L, 06L is fighting off the shear by blowing convection near the center, sure it looks impressive now, but in a few hours, the center might be exposed again.



IF 06L pulls north and away from the shear as models expect it to, regeneration is a possibility and the Carolinas might want to watch it.


Interesting insight about how it's fighting off shear. Now I know a little bit more of what to look out for. Never heard that before. Thanks. :)
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Quoting Weather456:



while not 100% nailed, some were correct about Erika...read back a few days.


stormno (stormtop) literally stuck a fork in the storm the day it was named, he doesn't look at the pattern and could have ben way off, he got off lucky this time but still doesn't earn my respect. You on the other hand did a good job, you showed when shear was going to approach the storm, and I think you and StormW said it may not turn NW. Good call, you guys are great! I stopped forecasting the storm after it stalled, was too confusing for me but hey, I'm only 20 and a half years old.
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Quoting kachina:


Looks like she's trying....we'll have to watch and see whether the shear beats her up or she beats up the shear.

And good morning everyone!
good morning, IF 06L can re-develop a well-defined LLC, we could see re-development.
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Invest 97B...very interesting
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The interesting thing is, like former-97L, 06L is fighting off the shear by blowing convection near the center, sure it looks impressive now, but in a few hours, the center might be exposed again.



IF 06L pulls north and away from the shear as models expect it to, regeneration is a possibility and the Carolinas might want to watch it.
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Quoting reedzone:


No one nailed Erika, absolutely no one! This storm was a test and everybody failed. Although the NHC did great on Bill, and I never downcasted Bill, I said it would move between the US and Bermuda which it did and maybe affect New England, I was called a Newcaster just by going with the trends and pattern.



while not 100% nailed, some were correct about Erika...read back a few days.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting cajunmoma:


UUmmm Happy? I don't worry about what the models say this far out. I just wait and see. But I don't know if anyone is "happy" a hurricane or TS will hit them??


I did not say a hurricane or TS.
You must be a wishcaster.
I said "something",lol
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1360. kachina
Quoting yonzabam:


NHC says last advisory 'unless regeneration occurs'. Well, she's regenerating, now, but 35 knts of shear and interaction with Hispaniola or PR could finally finish her off.


Looks like she's trying....we'll have to watch and see whether the shear beats her up or she beats up the shear. (As an aside, she has to live! I have a dollar double cheeseburger riding on the prediction that my office in Ft. Lauderdale will be closed one day because of her. One day only - I don't want any category anythings blowing through here).

And good morning everyone!
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06L not looking all that bad, imo:
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Quoting reedzone:


No one nailed Erika, absolutely no one! This storm was a test and everybody failed. Although the NHC did great on Bill, and I never downcasted Bill, I said it would move between the US and Bermuda which it did and maybe affect New England, I was called a Newcaster just by going with the trends and pattern.


Stttt........it is just a blog.
Nothing to prove here,lol.
Have fun.
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Looking at long range radar from PR and I see more convention building near the center.
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Quoting apocalyps:


Are you not happy something wants to come youre way?


UUmmm Happy? I don't worry about what the models say this far out. I just wait and see. But I don't know if anyone is "happy" a hurricane or TS will hit them??
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1352. IKE
LOL...just posted it.

Lol. Great minds...
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06L does not die, it will still need to be watched for the chance of re-development.

This area exiting off the coast of Africa seems to be organizing, it will probably strengthen into a TD in about 3 to 5 days if a well defined LLC develops.

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Quoting apocalyps:

There will always be downcasters,lol
Someday you will be right,keep on trying,keep up the good work.


No one nailed Erika, absolutely no one! This storm was a test and everybody failed. Although the NHC did great on Bill, and I never downcasted Bill, I said it would move between the US and Bermuda which it did and maybe affect New England, I was called a Newcaster just by going with the trends and pattern.
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1352. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Saw that Ike. Have you read New Orleans NWS yet? I think they said it would probably go east of them. So you may get another blustery storm.


LOL...just posted it.

Mobile,AL....

"[SATURDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY]...SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH LABOR DAY. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
A HIGH AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE WET ONE AS
THE UPPER IMPULSES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NATURALLY THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COINCIDE WITH
THE MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE DAY...BUT AN ISOLATED/SCATTERED CHANCE
COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF I-10 TO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS."
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Quoting stormsurge39:
456 is that frontal trough still as strong to pull Erika more N?


my indications are it is...it is even strong enough to dip into the NW Caribbean, some u dont see every september
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting cajunmoma:


I have been watching that for a couple of days. The home grown ones scare me the most. Est since the models keep wanting to bring it my way.


Are you not happy something wants to come youre way?
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Quoting Weather456:
Tropical update
456 is that frontal trough still as strong to pull Erika more N?
1348. IKE
New Orleans long-term.....

"LONG TERM...
IF A SFC LOW DOES FORM ON THE OLD BOUNDARY BY TUE NEAR THE AREA...IT
WILL LIKELY WAIT FOR THE SECOND STRONGER FORCING FEATURE PROVIDED BY
A QUICKLY DIGGING UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS
SUPPOSED TO MOVE IN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE LINE OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE AREA ON A DAILY BASIS COULD SET UP SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED."
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Quoting IKE:
6Z GFS at 96 hours. Note the low in the northern GOM....



I have been watching that for a couple of days. The home grown ones scare me the most. Est since the models keep wanting to bring it my way.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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