Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

McAfee virus alert messages
A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Still seems to be drifting a bit south ... I still have a hunch she will stay south of the major islands and limp into the Western Caribbean where she might redevelop.
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133: Does it matter? You plan on talking to him or about him?
If so, why?

His comments are not worth the trouble and he, himself, becoming a stand-alone topic of conversation is far worse.
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Did CycloneOz stay in Cabo, or did he follow Jimena to it's landing point?

Too lazy to go into the site...
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1977
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Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:
Im back!
Lucky us'n!
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Well...Off to pick-up the Kids....Will check back tonight on the Artist Formerly Known as Erika.....
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141. IKE
Looks like the naked swirl has come unraveled. I don't understand why they never went to 16N and 62W?
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Flood but you use the poof so elegantly
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Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:

why do you hate me so much


just maybe it has to do with you constantly bickering over stupid stuff and asking the same questions over and over even though they have already been answered. my advice to you is to stay low for awhile and only post things that are on topic and pertain to this blog. if you read what everyone else inputs into this blog, you will probably learn something *gasp* and it will do you some good to listen to people when they ask you to calm down every now and then. just my advice to you. we all want to learn and be helpful to others on this blog, and you can do this too if you just learn when to speak and when to resist the urge to antagonize people.
thanks :)
-Matt
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this season is just a complete flop. Danny did the same exact thing. the one coming off now will too.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I got banned the other day and it said do not use profanity in the blog, didnt even use profanity, I'm done here.


just like erika, done here huh..
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Quoting kachina:

Ahhh! I wasn't aware that there were 2 things running amok out here. Thanks for the info. I stand corrected! Mea culpa!

Hey, Flood. To 2 trojan scripts undergo Fujiwhara?
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Quoting GBJane:


Sounds like a plan. Here in Jersey, Channel Islands, people buy prodigious amounts of alcohol, come rain or shine. We don't need a reason or a season. :-)


We don't need a reason for the season in Louisiana either, however, when a storm is brewing and your the last one to the store...Well no Hurricane Party for you my friend. Hence the reason why we keep it in our Hurricane Survival Kits...Just in case we can't make it to the store!!!
Quoting atmoaggie:


An amplitude of 1 or better in the West. Hem. direction is wonderful for TC development. The same in the direction of Maritime Continent (SE Asia) is a hindrance for TC development.

The thin red line is the last 40 days of MJO observation. The thick Blue and Green lines are the next 7 days forecast by GFS and GFS-Ensemble mean, respectively. The thin blue and green lines are days 8 to 15 forecasted, same as the thick for the model.

Our forecasts for MJO have downright stunk for the last month. Was so that a 2-day forecast was questionable. Verifying a little better right now.

Do not trust this product more than a few days out, then only if it has been performing decently well for that long.

Full details here: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml

Cool! thanks
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133. IKE
Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:
is it possible Ericka could restrengthen and hit Florida Ikester?


Is this the real WS/JFV?
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

Oh okay - I thought I remember you "inventing" it a few years back ;)


Oh, I certainly started the trend here, and was paid back in spades by getting banned every other day or so...I'm so glad to see that others are still using it though
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I got banned the other day and it said do not use profanity in the blog, didnt even use profanity, I'm done here.


So why are you still here? LOL
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anyone notice the sightseeing that recon did around saba island lower hells gate?....lol...guess their heading home?...maybe another pass over the naked swirl...no interest in the islands...
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Quoting hurricanehanna:

Atmo - could you give me a basic tutorial on this map? TIA :)


An amplitude of 1 or better in the West. Hem. direction is wonderful for TC development. The same in the direction of Maritime Continent (SE Asia) is a hindrance for TC development in the Atlantic Basin.

The thin red line is the last 40 days of MJO observation. The thick Blue and Green lines are the next 7 days forecast by GFS and GFS-Ensemble mean, respectively. The thin blue and green lines are days 8 to 15 forecasted, same as the thick for the model.

Our forecasts for MJO have downright stunk for the last month. Was so that a 2-day forecast was questionable. Verifying a little better right now.

Do not trust this product more than a few days out, then only if it has been performing decently well for that long.

Full details here: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml
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Quoting TampaSpin:


It will become an open wave heading toward the Western Caribbean and then OH NO the GOM eventually....

ssshhhhh! don't let her hear you! :)
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I got banned the other day and it said do not use profanity in the blog, didnt even use profanity, I'm done here.
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I have no idea who you are...
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Quoting BioWeather:
The HH mission is concluded. It will probably be downgraded to TD status.


That's funny. The HH didn't even go to where the heaviest rain action is. Stayed west of it.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1977
Quoting Floodman:


Oh no, darlin', the **POOF!** is in the public domain

Oh okay - I thought I remember you "inventing" it a few years back ;)
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Quoting foggymyst:
Tampa, if the storm heads in the direction you have on your map..the storm still will encounter shear?..and it does not travel through DRs mountains, what would be the potential outcome?


It will become an open wave heading toward the Western Caribbean and then OH NO the GOM eventually....
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As always, here in Puerto Rico we are used to get prepared for a direct hit and then poofs.... I had always been sure that this storm was going to die before approaching our Island. Poor Erika, this was her end... RIP.
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AL, 06, 2009090318, , BEST, 0, 166N, 647W, 30, 1008, TD
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"WEATHERSTUDENTJFV"??? even I'm not that lame....

;)
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Could the high push the low for Erika back at her to the east-southeast?
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Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:
Im back!*plugs ears* lalalalala i cant hear you
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Quoting GBJane:


Sounds like a plan. Here in Jersey, Channel Islands, people buy prodigious amounts of alcohol, come rain or shine. We don't need a reason or a season. :-)


Oh, true, but you know... it's something like having turkey on Thanksgiving, or the tree in Christmas.

For Ana and Bill, I tried bringing a 24-pack of Medalla beer home. Grandma seriously disapproved :D
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1977
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Flood has a patent pending on the *poof*


Oh no, darlin', the **POOF!** is in the public domain
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Quoting GBJane:


Sounds like a plan. Here in Jersey, Channel Islands, people buy prodigious amounts of alcohol, come rain or shine. We don't need a reason or a season. :-)
lol. sounds like a cool place to live...lol.
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The HH mission is concluded. It will probably be downgraded to TD status.
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Quoting GBJane:


Sounds like a plan. Here in Jersey, Channel Islands, people buy prodigious amounts of alcohol, come rain or shine. We don't need a reason or a season. :-)

Sounds like Texas in that respect. Any day that ends in "y" is a day to drink alcohol.

And while I'm thinking about it... does your area recieve stronger storms in the summer (tropical storm remnants) or in the winter?
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Quoting GBJane:


Sounds like a plan. Here in Jersey, Channel Islands, people buy prodigious amounts of alcohol, come rain or shine. We don't need a reason or a season. :-)


I always wanted to visit the Channel Islands...
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Quoting GBJane:
Hi all, I'm new here too! Really fascinated with hurricanes and tropical storms, have been visiting this site for a while now. My meteorological understanding is limited, but am learning! Just been battered by remnants of TS Danny - Wow! Live in the Channel Islands (UK) near France. We often get the remnants of hurricanes this time of year. How do you guys survive the real thing? Remnants are bad enough!

Everyone survives in no small part by monitoring the expert opinions of the dozen or so regular contributors to the discussion, along with that of Dr. Masters and his associates(of course).
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Quoting Hurricane009:
?????

Flood has a patent pending on the *poof*
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Quoting Floodman:


In all, a truly brilliant plan


And one that's been going on since God knows when. Before Westerners, probly Indians smoked cojoba or something :)
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1977
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


North of the Lesser Antilles. Basically drift a little north from where the mid-level turning is at now...


Thanks
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Quoting atmoaggie:



Atmo - could you give me a basic tutorial on this map? TIA :)
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Hey Flood; I'd like to know too but not as adept as the younger folks on here who can find the charts and paste them up in a few seconds....... :)

If I didn't have it placed prominently in my blog, neither could I...that is why I have my blog like I do. Access. All about access.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Very good observation.....Basically a last ditch attempt at life support.


Who keeps getting out the shock paddles???

We need a Do Not Resuscitate order signed....
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Quoting serialteg:


In Puerto Rico lots of people buy prodigious amounts of alcohol and ride it out in stupor.


Sounds like a plan. Here in Jersey, Channel Islands, people buy prodigious amounts of alcohol, come rain or shine. We don't need a reason or a season. :-)
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Quoting Hurricane009:
?????


It's a reference to having ignored that person...I click the ignore button and **POOF!** you're gone
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
407 PM AST THU SEP 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...T.S. ERIKA HAS BEEN A PROBLEMATIC SYSTEM SINCE ITS
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS REMAINS THE CASE. PER 2 PM TCPAT1...AIRCRAFT
AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT PRIMARY LOW LEVEL SWIRL HAD
REMOVED ITSELF FROM THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION AND ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES AND
WILL WAIT ON ANY CHANGES TO THIS WITH THE NEW 5 PM FORECAST
PACKAGE FROM NHC.

IRRESPECTIVE OF WHAT FORM THIS SYSTEM TAKES WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...THE PRIMARY THREAT WE HAVE BEEN MENTIONING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
EMPHASIZE THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY.

ONCE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO AND POSSIBLY THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL THEREFORE NOT
HAVE MUCH DECENT WEATHER INDICATED UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
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Quoting Floodman:


The "packed.c.gen" is actually from a trojan...it was unfiortunate that the js compaction routine was called essentially the same thing

Ahhh! I wasn't aware that there were 2 things running amok out here. Thanks for the info. I stand corrected! Mea culpa!
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Quoting Hurricane009:
how to do you make your own paths and tracks like that??? That is cool.


So you don't have Paint, or something like that?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1977
Quoting Floodman:


That is an excellent question...I'd thought mid-September...anyone with an answer to this question?


Hey Flood; I'd like to know too but not as adept as the younger folks on here who can find the charts and paste them up in a few seconds....... :)

Thanks Atmoaggie...What am I looking at?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.