Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

McAfee virus alert messages
A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:

my 24 hour ban ended 24 hours ago




hmmmmmmm oh it did huh??? then why are you uesing this name then why not the other name you had
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Quoting rareaire:


Comments Flood?


I have nothing other than top say I agree that any season in which no one gets hurt is a good one...
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194. IKE
Quoting justalurker:


i dont think it;s really him, someone playing a joke..


I don't think it's him either.
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Tampa she's still headed to your house see the models its gonna happen!!
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LOL. Subtract 4. Subtract 4. Oh well.

Weird because usually the live feed goes offline with blank screen if it's over.

Generally just look at the minutes.

Oh well.
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erika looks like its two storms! look at both of the spins
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Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:

my 24 hour ban ended 24 hours ago


taz....its not the real person, just a little kid trying to get under your skin...just everyone ignore and move on...
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176. Tazmanian 1:46 PM PDT on September 03, 2009
Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:

So Florida is in the clear?



what do you think??



and why if i may ask why do you keep bypassing the Admin 24hr bans dont you get it??? when the Admin bans you from this blog for 24hr or what evere time he gives you on the ban you stay ban in tell your time is up


Taz is right...and I know a lot about bans...
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Funny watch what happens with TD Erika tonite during DMAX.....we will all be laughing again probably. It actually looks like Shear is relaxing in its current location some. But, high shear to the WEST is coming. One thing that is very difficult for the best models is to forecast Shear outside of 48hrs and sometimes it changes in 6hrs unexpectedly.
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Whats up Taz? Hows the fires out your way today?
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Interesting. You can see (total precipitable water) where those early AM thunderstorms, gusts and heavy squalls formed and diminished during the day (DMIN). The rain looks like it's headed north with the upheaval of the atmosphere noted up till the East CONUS coast. Puerto Rico could see a rain event if the pattern holds, for it will come by at night.

Also, the LLC just south of PR could re-develop thunderstorms because of DMAX, but heavier shear is developing just in front of it.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
Quoting justalurker:


i dont think it;s really him, someone playing a joke..



yup its not him
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Quoting Seastep:
I don't see that recon is going home yet.

19:27:00Z - 15.817N 63.717W - 293 meters
.
.
.
19:36:30Z - 15.817N 63.200W - 292 meters


that data is over an hour old?...they are heading home after circling saba island...lol...sightseeing?...lol
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Quoting serialteg:


Watch the "inferno" word... I believe I was banned for using the proper "darn" word just a day or two ago.

Ignore if you have connections.


Unfortunately, I am connectionless...
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Quoting winter123:
this season is just a complete flop. Danny did the same exact thing. the one coming off now will too.
Well -we will just have to liven things up a little bit wont we?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



what do you think??



and why if i may ask why do you keep bypassing the Admin 24hr bans dont you get it??? when the Admin bans you from this blog for 24hr or what evere time he gives you on the ban you stay ban in tell your time is up


i dont think it;s really him, someone playing a joke..
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Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:

Good point thanks Mattster.


youre welcome. look, I want you to be able to post on this blog and provide insight and your point of view, but you have to learn to tone it down sometime, alright man? im trying not to be too hard on you, but you have definitely been put on ignore by many people. just use some common sense and put a little more thought into your posts. all im trying to do is help.
-Matt
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Quoting WXHam:
a href="9-3-09 @ 1945 utc" target="_blank">

Are my eyes fooling me or are we seeing signs of strengthening over Saint Eustatius?


If you look at the animation is looks like an upper level low is trying to work its way down around 16N 63W. Now, Now everybody. Not wishcasting, just commenting. Erika is probably just on life-support at this time, but she is trying to survive.
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Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:

So Florida is in the clear?



what do you think??



and why if i may ask why do you keep bypassing the Admin 24hr bans dont you get it??? when the Admin bans you from this blog for 24hr or what evere time he gives you on the ban you stay ban in tell your time is up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


Now there's an image...LOL

Two snippets of code, circling each other. making kernel calls until **WHABO!** one jumps the other...hell, I guess you have to have been a code jock to appreciate that image...LOL


LOL LOL
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Its all good here been very busy and out enjoying this fall like weather we have been having . I have my weathercaster conch tracking for me so I just sit back and enjoy.!!
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"When you dip,I dip..we Dip"..


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Quoting watchingnva:



why is a flop a bad thing?...no land falling canes is a beauty if you ask me...and im sure anyone/everyone that was or has really been affected with /by one will agree...


Comments Flood?
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I don't see that recon is going home yet.

19:27:00Z - 15.817N 63.717W - 293 meters
.
.
.
19:36:30Z - 15.817N 63.200W - 292 meters
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Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:

So Florida is in the clear?


Its the wunderground,..Fla is NEVER in the clear to The Tropics..even in January.
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Quoting rareaire:
Flood but you use the poof so elegantly


Why thank you...a left handed compliment is better than none at all, I suppose...how goes the fight, Rare?
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the wave that came out of africa looks way better than erica
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i'm not giving up on this blog yet, even if she becomes a thunderstorm, we will have someone here saying in the next few days "reborn", "rising from the dead", "erika2" and many more..just wait and see.
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ERIKA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 3
Location: 16.7°N 65.3°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
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164. IKE
Quoting atmoaggie:
133: Does it matter? You plan on talking to him or about him?
If so, why?

His comments are not worth the trouble and he, himself, becoming a stand-alone topic of conversation is far worse.


Doesn't really matter. Just never sure if someone is legit on here or not.
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163. WXHam
a href="9-3-09 @ 1945 utc" target="_blank">

Are my eyes fooling me or are we seeing signs of strengthening over Saint Eustatius?
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Official. TD Erika...
Quoting winter123:
this season is just a complete flop. Danny did the same exact thing. the one coming off now will too.



why is a flop a bad thing?...no land falling canes is a beauty if you ask me...and im sure anyone/everyone that was or has really been affected with /by one will agree...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NexSat African Vis ti Night IR,exiting waves
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Quoting Floodman:


Now there's an image...LOL

Two snippets of code, circling each other. making kernel calls until **WHABO!** one jumps the other...hell, I guess you have to have been a code jock to appreciate that image...LOL


Watch the "inferno" word... I believe I was banned for using the proper "darn" word just a day or two ago.

Ignore if you have connections.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
Quoting DocBen:
Still seems to be drifting a bit south ... I still have a hunch she will stay south of the major islands and limp into the Western Caribbean where she might redevelop.
Limp-lol.
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Quoting StormChaser81:


That yellow circle looks like the flyswatter I used to swing around as a kid!
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
Quoting atmoaggie:

Hey, Flood. To 2 trojan scripts undergo Fujiwhara?


Now there's an image...LOL

Two snippets of code, circling each other. making kernel calls until **WHABO!** one jumps the other...hell, I guess you have to have been a code jock to appreciate that image...LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
in other news, jimena has stalled over the baja gulf. It'd strengthen if it wasnt for the heavy shear... but it may survive a few more days there... trapped by land friction.

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153. Relix
000
WTNT31 KNHC 032037
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009

...ERIKA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ALL WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH
ERIKA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND
ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERIKA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY. ERIKA COULD ALSO
DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AT ANY TIME.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.7N 65.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009

...ERIKA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ALL WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH
ERIKA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND
ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...ERIKA OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERIKA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY. ERIKA COULD ALSO
DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AT ANY TIME.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.7N 65.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
150. IKE
...ERIKA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 3
Location: 16.7°N 65.3°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
148. Relix
Came back. NHC calls it a Depression. All warnings discontinued. w00t. Guess tomorrow is a normal day in PR =P. Guess I keep the crow in the fridge haha.
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Still seems to be drifting a bit south ... I still have a hunch she will stay south of the major islands and limp into the Western Caribbean where she might redevelop.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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