Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

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A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Floodman:


Even a moderate El Nino will cause a preturbation


*spelling bee contest*

can you use it in a sentence please..

preturbation..P-R-E-T-U-R-B-A-T-I-O-N..
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Quoting serialteg:


Damage is done. Lots of people got off work early in Puerto Rico, kids off school at 1PM, no class since mid-day on college campus, people off to the pubs to drink themselves to oblivion, etc.


What is wrong with that last part? ;)
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Quoting justalurker:


dont forget dissipation of comments on this blog..LOL


With all that Africa action coming up... and it being september 3rd...

Smack in the climax.

Predict some more F5 events soon.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
Quoting Floodman:


Even a moderate El Nino will cause a preturbation
hold on im getting my Thesaurus! It sounds as if the comment was homogeneus to mine in a clarifying manner but Im gonna check!! NRAmy!!
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Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:

Ikester your thoughts?


what are YOUR thoughts?

I'm willing to listen
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242. Relix
Quoting JLPR:
CV wave developing some convection


Hmm... seems a bit too far north for the antilles. Neeext. Lol.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2713
Quoting winter123:
erica is best looking TD i have ever seen. it may bomb if it forms a new surface low. (lines drawn to get my point across)

If this trend continues during the d-max overnight, it really might be an interesting scenario.
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Quoting rareaire:
Flood it is a rare year for the track of these cv storms. they seem to head right off nw and then slowly go w or nw . Seems like the last few years they went of almost n of west and then caught the ride to where they were going. Little deviation (fay Excluded)


Even a moderate El Nino will cause a preturbation
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237. Relix
Quoting JLPR:


ahh yes it was nice =] I needed a break lol xD


I hope tomorrow there's no class either =P
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2713
236. JLPR
CV wave developing some convection
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Quoting TampaSpin:


WOW your really are a RARE one. You made that forecast over a week ago......Dang you.....LOL
My forecast are in the book. If I'm wrong then by gosh they are the same the whole time thru the storm, lol
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Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:
Erika was a dissapointment. No longer worrying about Erika, it is not going to affect anyone.


so what are you focusing on now? what do you think will become of the wave off of Africa?
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Quoting winter123:
erica is best looking TD i have ever seen. it may bomb if it forms a new surface low. (lines drawn to get my point across)



Look a tad to the SW. I believe that is where you will see a little more flare-up.
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From the latest discussion:
SINCE ERIKA SHOULD MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE
SHALLOW BAM MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE NEW FORECAST TRACK.

It's hard to believe they're going with little ol' BAMS ... :-)
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Quoting Seastep:
LOL. Subtract 4. Subtract 4. Oh well.

Weird because usually the live feed goes offline with blank screen if it's over.

Generally just look at the minutes.

Oh well.


i think they just landed or are on approach...but the last drop was at:

20:17:00Z-17.63N 63.75W
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Quoting NRAamy:
176. Tazmanian 1:46 PM PDT on September 03, 2009
Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:

So Florida is in the clear?



what do you think??



and why if i may ask why do you keep bypassing the Admin 24hr bans dont you get it??? when the Admin bans you from this blog for 24hr or what evere time he gives you on the ban you stay ban in tell your time is up


Taz is right...and I know a lot about bans...


LMFAO
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228. JLPR
Quoting serialteg:


Damage is done. Lots of people got off work early in Puerto Rico, kids off school at 1PM, no class since mid-day on college campus, people off to the pubs to drink themselves to oblivion, etc.


ahh yes it was nice =] I needed a break lol xD
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Flood it is a rare year for the track of these cv storms. they seem to head right off nw and then slowly go w or nw . Seems like the last few years they went of almost n of west and then caught the ride to where they were going. Little deviation (fay Excluded)
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Quoting winter123:
erica is best looking TD i have ever seen. it may bomb if it forms a new surface low. (lines drawn to get my point across)



Looks like a MLC.
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Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:
Im back!
Real or not-*C'ya!*
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Quoting serialteg:


Damage is done. Lots of people got off work early in Puerto Rico, kids off school at 1PM, no class since mid-day on college campus, people off to the pubs to drink themselves to oblivion, etc.


dont forget dissipation of comments on this blog..LOL
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erica is best looking TD i have ever seen. it may bomb if it forms a new surface low. (lines drawn to get my point across)

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Quoting winter123:


geez that is an insane trough for summer. Way down into the yucitan


Yeah. The polar jet has retreated north over Canada with some ridging over the Eastern US.

However the subtropical jets is RACING across the 20-30° North latitude including the Gulf.

Usually in El Nino years the subtropical jet is more intense than normal...

This enhanced westerlies in the heart of the season is probably influenced by the El Nino (and Jimena's deep convection).

18UTC NAM 200mb flow showing strong westerlies of 30-50 knots over the Gulf and off the East Coast. This kind of setup makes it darn near impossible for a hurricane to threaten the US.

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Quoting rareaire:
Tampa she's still headed to your house see the models its gonna happen!!


WOW your really are a RARE one. You made that forecast over a week ago......Dang you.....LOL
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As people are so irritated by Erika.. I'll provide a... global warming article!

Link

(Doesn't seem to be particularly anything new, though.)
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Quoting caymankelt:


I went fishing in Jersey and Alderney in the Channel Islands a number of years back, and yes like the locals we bought prodigious amounts of alcohol. Had a great time and the fishing was great. We even managed to get blown back to the English mainland with a force 7 gale behand us for 4 hrs and on a small 30ft fishing boat, that was an experience!!


You guys really liked the prodigious word, huh...

Just get back to me on the royalties :)
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
204. rareaire 1:55 PM PDT on September 03, 2009
please quit quoting him and we can enjoy the feature built into this blog!!! mkaaaayyy


mmmmmmmkay Mr. Mackey...

:)
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he most likey bypass the Admin ban
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Quoting Tazmanian:



one is is up too %70 and the other %28


definitely glad that they are getting them contained
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215. JLPR
convection was almost completely gone before Erika decided to start developing small cells of convection, apparently Erika wants to start from 0 again xD
1. spit out her LLC
2. developing brand new convection
3. trying to form a new LLC
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Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:

my 24 hour ban ended 24 hours ago


Who cares and why is everyone making such a big deal over one person. Are we not mature enough to fucus out the print on our freaking monitor from one blogger that you may not like. It really is not that difficult really. I swear!
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Quoting lordhuracan01:
ERIKA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 3
Location: 16.7°N 65.3°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb


Damage is done. Lots of people got off work early in Puerto Rico, kids off school at 1PM, no class since mid-day on college campus, people off to the pubs to drink themselves to oblivion, etc.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
Quoting rareaire:
Whats up Taz? Hows the fires out your way today?



one is is up too %70 and the other %28
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Quoting GBJane:


Sounds like a plan. Here in Jersey, Channel Islands, people buy prodigious amounts of alcohol, come rain or shine. We don't need a reason or a season. :-)


I went fishing in Jersey and Alderney in the Channel Islands a number of years back, and yes like the locals we bought prodigious amounts of alcohol. Had a great time and the fishing was great. We even managed to get blown back to the English mainland with a force 7 gale behand us for 4 hrs and on a small 30ft fishing boat, that was an experience!!
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Quoting Funkadelic:
The wave off africa appears to be moving WNW/ NW already. Recurve is the name of the game in 2009 it seems. Dont bother me I still need my roof fixed here in Florida lol.


That's not recurvature, it's a projected jog in track...12-24 hours and it's back on the usual for this time if year in those latitudes...west
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209. Relix
I think NHC was too quick to drop the Tropical Storm Warnings for the islands. It still could try something as it has for a while now.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2713
definite strengthening over the islands. It has a vigorous midlevel low and i think that is working down to the surface. The spin going south of puerto rico... I don't know? That is flying west at like 20mph, yet erica is stalled. IM SO CONFUSED.

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And it says that it is only 17 minutes old. Go figure.
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lol,never a lack of intrigue here,I guess thats what happens when the only Tropical weather is a dying TS.
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please quit quoting him and we can enjoy the feature built into this blog!!! mkaaaayyy
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Quoting watchingnva:


taz....its not the real person, just a little kid trying to get under your skin...just everyone ignore and move on...



ok not worth geting ban overe him
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114954
Quoting IKE:


I don't think it's him either.


i know who it is...stormtop
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Quoting IKE:
Looks like the naked swirl has come unraveled. I don't understand why they never went to 16N and 62W?


I think new surface circulation will form under mid-level circulation. Erika is not yet a goner!
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Quoting tornadodude:


youre welcome. look, I want you to be able to post on this blog and provide insight and your point of view, but you have to learn to tone it down sometime, alright man? im trying not to be too hard on you, but you have definitely been put on ignore by many people. just use some common sense and put a little more thought into your posts. all im trying to do is help.
-Matt
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Quoting Patrap:
"When you dip,I dip..we Dip"..




geez that is an insane trough for summer. Way down into the yucitan
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.