Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

McAfee virus alert messages
A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

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ur welcome
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Thank you CRS
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Quoting StormW:


Yea...he tries to do that on and off during analysis.


I've got a good number of them from you over the last couple of years. I just can't put them to use as good though. Thanks
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Quoting apocalyps:


Thats not unbelievable,thats the logic track.
NHC forecast is unbelievable as they are wrong FOUR days in a row.
Have you noticed the new blow up of convention?
Yea,I blew up at a convention before and got fired!!LOL
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candibarr- histroy don't look good for louisiana, huh?
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Quoting Elena85Vet:


If you're patient enough StormW tosses out a nugget every now and then. LOL


Actually.. if you ask him.. he is more then happy to help you in anyway he can. He has the patience of a saint most of the time.
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Quoting stormsurge39:
It looks like she is going WSW again!!! Unbelievable!!! This storm is one to study afterwards!


Thats not unbelievable,thats the logic track.
NHC forecast is unbelievable as they are wrong FOUR days in a row.
Have you noticed the new blow up of convention?
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Quoting P451:


Well I'll be...never even noticed that and it's right there. Thanks Storm.



You know, I haven't gotten the hang of EUMETSAT still :(

And how do you make those nice neat small animations?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
Quoting P451:


Well I'll be...never even noticed that and it's right there. Thanks Storm.



If you're patient enough StormW tosses out a nugget every now and then. LOL
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It looks like she is going WSW again!!! Unbelievable!!! This storm is one to study afterwards!
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Time for our TOP TEN!

You know Erika isn't dead yet when...

9. I have just used the ignore function for the first time, and they came in two's

8. Rain actually comes

7. Everyone's out surfing, and I'm stuck here at home

6. I slept with Wunderground, and woke with Wunderground

5. Puerto Ricans all over are upset and annoyed by having to go to work today

4. Stormno's not here

3. You lack ideas to put on #3

2. I guess the cat and 4 kittens living on my backyard are feeling the effects of Erika

And #1

People are still forecasting a hit on Florida or the GOM.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
1582. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Cotillion:


That'd be pretty funny.

'...Coffee Warnings now in effect for all forecasters....

A Cigarette Watch has also been issued.

Meteorologists pacing around in annoyance has now increased to... 5mph.. 8km/h.

The pressure of perplexed forecasters has now increased... to 1010mb.

Total caffeine accumulations are expected to be in the region of 6 cups... 15 cups are possible in isolated areas.

Forecaster Erika'
yep that sums it up nicly one of the most stubborn storms kept junpin around standing still for the most part dancing across the wards kinda like gettin a strike on the match head but the wind blowing it out everytime it caught
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Quoting CandiBarr:


ewwwwww....


Thanks,that will help a lot.lol
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ewwwwww....
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Most likely scenario is that Erika drifts towards Jamaica,and explodes there to a major.
Luckely with this westsouthwest track the egyptian pyramides are safe.
Oeps,just saw another explosion of convention.
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mobilegirl
you are crazy lmao! good laugh
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats straight off the WU frontpage for Erika.. what I can't find.. is a model run that agrees with it. The date time group says its new data...


OO Im gonna have to go play. didnt know that came from wu. dont think I can help much with finding the model run on it..i'd like to know what you do find tho :)
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Quoting LUCARIO:


i agree
erika is amazing
she will be stronger then katrina
she is just keeping everything under til the big finale.

awe man don't bring up katrina
gives me flashbacks like nam. lol!
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Quoting Cotillion:


That'd be pretty funny.

'...Coffee Warnings now in effect for all forecasters....

A Cigarette Watch has also been issued.

Meteorologists pacing around in annoyance has now increased to... 5mph.. 8km/h.

The pressure of perplexed forecasters has now increased... to 1010mb.

Total caffeine accumulations are expected to be in the region of 6 cups... 15 cups are possible in isolated areas.

Forecaster Erika'


nice nice nice !!!
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
Quoting Cotillion:


That'd be pretty funny.

'...Coffee Warnings now in effect for all forecasters....

A Cigarette Watch has also been issued.

Meteorologists pacing around in annoyance has now increased to... 5mph.. 8km/h.

The pressure of perplexed forecasters has now increased... to 1010mb.

Total caffeine accumulations are expected to be in the region of 6 cups... 15 cups are possible in isolated areas.

Forecaster Erika'

LOL!
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Quoting sarahjola:
stormsurge
i think you're right
its been the case so far with erika
I hope im not,because if she survives in conditions like shes in now, just imagine what shes going to be like in the right conditions! Not good for some people!
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Is the trough off the US east coast being caused by an unusually southerly jet stream? Here in Scotland we've had an unbelievably wet summer and I think it might be due to a southerly jet stream inducing depressions in the Atlantic and steering them over the UK.

We've just had the remnants of Danny here in Scotland resulting in severe flooding. Aberdeen had it's wettest September day on record. We had Bill a week ago. Usually, these remnants go to the north of Scotland, but not this year. I think the trough off the US east coast and the wet Scottish summer are connected.

Here's a link to a BBC news webpage about the flooding here. There's a video link to click on which shows the floods.

Link

Link doesn't work. Cut 'n' paste this.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8237299.stm
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Quoting CandiBarr:
@1546

orca is that the first time we've really seen those come so close in agreement? it kinda shocks me looking is y i ask.


Thats straight off the WU frontpage for Erika.. what I can't find.. is a model run that agrees with it. The date time group says its new data...
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Quoting mobilegirl81:

I saw the GFS yesterday develop something in the BOC and it moved into the central gulf coast region sometime around the 9th, maybe a tropical storm.


Probably a forecast for Erika.
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Quoting mobilegirl81:

Erika may start forecasting what the NHC does lol


That'd be pretty funny.

'...Coffee Warnings now in effect for all forecasters....

A Cigarette Watch has also been issued.

Meteorologists pacing around in annoyance has now increased to... 5mph.. 8km/h.

The pressure of perplexed forecasters has now increased... to 1010mb.

Total caffeine accumulations are expected to be in the region of 6 cups... 15 cups are possible in isolated areas.

Forecaster Erika'
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Quoting iluvjess:
"Thank's. I haven't looked into it except visual satellite observation. I saw someone else mention development in Gulf and assumed they were referring that."

While the area that MobileGirl mentioned will unfortunately rain out our weekend that is not the area to watch for developement. The area to watch will be in the Western Gulf near the Texas Coast.

I saw the GFS yesterday develop something in the BOC and it moved into the central gulf coast region sometime around the 9th, maybe a tropical storm.
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Quoting LUCARIO:


i agree
erika is amazing
she will be stronger then katrina
she is just keeping everything under til the big finale.


Good post,keep up the good work,thanks.
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@1546

orca is that the first time we've really seen those come so close in agreement? it kinda shocks me looking is y i ask.
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Quoting LUCARIO:
TOLD Ya, erika is making a COME BACK
She will not die
she is like madonna
Erika is fixing to give us all a big surpise.
she ain't over til the fat weather lady sings


hmmm hmmmm

LA LA LA LA LA <<-- Fat lady is warming up
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1560. LUCARIO
Quoting apocalyps:
longtime lurker first time poster.

If Erika keeps on blowing her convention she would not even fit in the GOM.
Amazing.


i agree
erika is amazing
she will be stronger then katrina
she is just keeping everything under til the big finale.
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thanks cajunmoma you're awesome
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longtime lurker first time poster.

If Erika keeps on blowing her convention she would not even fit in the GOM.
Amazing.
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stormsurge
i think you're right
its been the case so far with erika
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15n 35w looks like a baby version of the former Erica. lol
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1555. LUCARIO
TOLD Ya, erika is making a COME BACK
She will not die
she is like madonna
Erika is fixing to give us all a big surpise.
she ain't over til the fat weather lady sings
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Quoting stormsurge39:
I think she will keep blowing up at night to survive, until the enviroment gets right for developement.


Could be.
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"Thank's. I haven't looked into it except visual satellite observation. I saw someone else mention development in Gulf and assumed they were referring that."

While the area that MobileGirl mentioned will unfortunately rain out our weekend that is not the area to watch for developement. The area to watch will be in the Western Gulf near the Texas Coast.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Erika has had more swirls than a convention of Dervishes.


Thats right erika has an outstanding convention.
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Quoting sarahjola:
cajunmoma
can you post a link to that gfs model please. thanks in advance



Here You Go Link
Quoting serialteg:


If I recall correctly, ever since it was named...

Erika may start forecasting what the NHC does lol
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Quoting JamesSA:
--> 1530 That looks surprisingly alive still for a dissipated storm. Is that current?


Say it...

Is it the best looking dissipated storm you have ever seen?
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
Quoting cajunmoma:


TX/LA Link
Thats not former Erika, is it?
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Quoting serialteg:


If I recall correctly, ever since it was named...


LOL..Good answer.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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