Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

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A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

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297. Lizpr
There's classes and work tomorrow here in PR but I work in a privare college I hope they don't call me! lol
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RIP Erika!!! I am going to go ahead and call the hurricane season over for South Florida! I think that is safe to say!
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Quoting Floodman:


No, actually I missed that...I was finishing up the Vedas about then...


ROFL
Flood, If it wasn't for you this would be a very boring place!!!
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Quoting rareaire:
PLEASE STOP QUOTING HIM!!!!!


Who made you the blog police?
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Quoting Dakster:


Ahh. My bad... You missed out on getting MAJOR connections for that one.


I don't know...there are more Hindus than there are Jews, after all
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292. Relix
Quoting IKE:


Now watch the blob blow back up overnight and bring heavy rains to PR tomorrow.


Probably become a Storm again thanks to the new COC and head towards PR once more XD.
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Quoting Weather456:
I would like to see what some will do when we get a repeat of an active season like 2010. 2009 actually is an anomaly.


Just how active was the Hurricane Season of 2010?
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Spawn of Erika
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well I won't quote anymore then because I might offend someone, so anyway, what is your take on the wave off the coast of Africa?
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I would like to see what some will do when we get a repeat of an active season like 2010. 2009 actually is an anomaly.
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287. IKE
Quoting Chavalito:
Sorry pals...Governor of Puerto Rico has announced that everything returns to normal activity, which means classes at schools and public employees return to work for tomorrow.


Now watch the blob blow back up overnight and bring heavy rains to PR tomorrow.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Floodman:


No, actually I missed that...I was finishing up the Vedas about then...


Ahh. My bad... You missed out on getting MAJOR connections for that one.
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If we put him on ignore it means we dont want to see his post. You two can go and pick out shower curtains for all I care. Just chat without posting him in quotes! !!! We all do it. As for putting you on ignore we'll see! I have asked nicely!
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284. IKE
This weakening blob of convection caused many a disagreement on Dr. M's blog. Erika, I dedicate this one to you. You would get all prettied up every night and then the makeup fell off every day. Almost gone, but not forgotten....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Dakster:


I doubt that... Weren't you there to help part the red sea?


No, actually I missed that...I was finishing up the Vedas about then...
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Quoting Dakster:
I practice perturbation on a regular basis...
I've got it down pat!
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Sorry pals...Governor of Puerto Rico has announced that everything returns to normal activity, which means classes at schools and public employees return to work for tomorrow.
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Quoting NARCHER:
good post we need more of these


Thanks!

If you believe the MJO forecasts, another upward pulse over the Atlantic late September/Early October could be the season's last active period and threat to the US.

Sometime these pulses are so strong that they could alter the environment in spite of any El Nino influence. Will be interesting to watch...

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Quoting Tazmanian:
your all so for geting its a El nino year wish all so means higher wind shear in the Carribean the Carribean will be shut down for good by mid SEP and by sure oct all so the gulf will be shut down for good by oct

you really cant be 100 percent sure though. So we must remain vigilant
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I practice perturbation on a regular basis...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe for the gulf coast and FL any more name storms out there will be fish storms



Just like only 4 named for the season? :p Sorry Taz just playing.
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your all so for geting its a El nino year wish all so means higher wind shear in the Carribean the Carribean will be shut down for good by mid SEP and by sure oct all so the gulf will be shut down for good by oct
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114927
Quoting rareaire:
PLEASE STOP QUOTING HIM!!!!!


sorry, but if you have a problem with me quoting him, then put me on ignore too because im actually having a decent conversation about the tropics with him.
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Quoting Floodman:


Even in a light to moderate El Nino year the change can cause a preturbation the mid to upper shear levels, increasing their area and strength, causing the demise of many tropical systems in the Atlantic basin...


can you repeat the word for me again please?..LOL
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Quoting tornadodude:


oh ok, well he can say it, you might not agree, but he is allowed to state his point of view. same with you.
PLEASE STOP QUOTING HIM!!!!!
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*face palm*
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meanwhile....


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269. WXHam


Are we trying out for "Are you Smarter than a Fifth Grader? LOL
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268. Relix
Erika is static though. Convection has barely moved while the swirl just kept his way as she whistled forgetting the convection.
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Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:
no not yet. But he cant say the season is over when i clearly is not.


oh ok, well he can say it, you might not agree, but he is allowed to state his point of view. same with you.
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Quoting justalurker:


*spelling bee contest*

can you use it in a sentence please..

preturbation..P-R-E-T-U-R-B-A-T-I-O-N..


Even in a light to moderate El Nino year the change can cause a preturbation the mid to upper shear levels, increasing their area and strength, causing the demise of many tropical systems in the Atlantic basin...
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Quoting JRRP:
perfect


Looks like Erika overdid the steroids. ((shrink))

Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe for the gulf coast and FL any more name storms out there will be fish storms

For the rest of September
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Quoting NARCHER:
good post we need more of these


True but not in a consitant manner, Shear is the beast that kills the models. Many of the high shear fields are at verying levels and they make it seem to be a fence but in reality a fence with large holes in it!!
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Quoting winter123:
erica is best looking TD i have ever seen. it may bomb if it forms a new surface low. (lines drawn to get my point across)



LOL Yeah that would be nice if your lines had anything to do with the circulation instead of random clouds with lines drawn thru them. If you bothered to look at the (lack of) circulation you would find the "center 70-100 miles West of the cloud cover. Get real. Be thankful it looks like it is going away and nobody will get hurt by it.
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Quoting Hurricane009:

What does it say when you try to get on??


It stays on Connecting to Server and times out. Always has. On Firefox and IE.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
Quoting WEATHERSTUDENTJFV:

I suppose unless they form in BOC


Is there anything of interest in the BOC?
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Quoting Floodman:


Unfortunately, I am connectionless...


I doubt that... Weren't you there to help part the red sea?
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254. JRRP
perfect
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Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Yeah. The polar jet has retreated north over Canada with some ridging over the Eastern US.

However the subtropical jets is RACING across the 20-30° North latitude including the Gulf.

Usually in El Nino years the subtropical jet is more intense than normal...

This enhanced westerlies in the heart of the season is probably influenced by the El Nino (and Jimena's deep convection).

18UTC NAM 200mb flow showing strong westerlies of 30-50 knots over the Gulf and off the East Coast. This kind of setup makes it darn near impossible for a hurricane to threaten the US.

good post we need more of these
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Why is nobody on Tropics Talk?? It is busy at night, but during the day it is empty.

Most of us on during the day have work. ;)
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Why is nobody on Tropics Talk?? It is busy at night, but during the day it is empty.


It's never worked for me. Can you send me a private and help me out? I'm off to change the spark plugs on my Sunbird. It's degenerating worse than Erika right now, and threatening to leave me stranded like that runaway LLC
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
hurricane season is overe for the gulf coast and FL any more name storms out there will be fish storms
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114927
People have missed JFV so much they are creating handles to mimic him.

sad
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Quoting Floodman:


Even a moderate El Nino will cause a preturbation


*spelling bee contest*

can you use it in a sentence please..

preturbation..P-R-E-T-U-R-B-A-T-I-O-N..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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