Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

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A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting justalurker:
last time i checked, dont we have a wave coming off of africa, am i missing something..season over? huh


Trolls will be trolls...The season's over! It's a fish! The shear will get it! The GOM is closed! The Caribbean is closed! South Florida is saved!

Geez, go watch Sesame Street, y'all, and let us be, huh?

We do indeed have a CV wave working it's way this way...
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The RIPpers will be out in their numbers tonight. Should be interesting.

My take on Erika is that will likely weaken but I have never stop tracking a system until it completely dissipates. That being said it is still wise to watch her until she does so.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting rareaire:
I think Erika will remain together and during d-max grow slightly. i think the sheer forcast are overstated and I think she will continue into the carribean where she will steadily strengthen until she get close to florida coast and rapidly intensifys. As to her hitting the conus that remains unseen but the madels are split on her development and many on here are going with the one that dissipates her. They may be correcxt but I still feel her surviving this long shows she has something left.


yeah, I agree that Erika will probably survive, and may even end up in the GOM, no idea on the strength, but it is definitely worthwhile to keep an eye on Erika, she isn't dead yet
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Quoting caymankelt:


I went fishing in Jersey and Alderney in the Channel Islands a number of years back, and yes like the locals we bought prodigious amounts of alcohol. Had a great time and the fishing was great. We even managed to get blown back to the English mainland with a force 7 gale behand us for 4 hrs and on a small 30ft fishing boat, that was an experience!!


Excuse my lack of knowledge, but do remnants of tropical storms/hurricanes gain strength again as they traverse the atlantic towards the UK despite rapidly decreasing sea surface temperature? And if they do why? They seem mighty strong storms over here, and such huge swells.
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I think Erika will remain together and during d-max grow slightly. i think the sheer forcast are overstated and I think she will continue into the carribean where she will steadily strengthen until she get close to florida coast and rapidly intensifys. As to her hitting the conus that remains unseen but the madels are split on her development and many on here are going with the one that dissipates her. They may be correcxt but I still feel her surviving this long shows she has something left.
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I agree Relix, since those two parts of the system are still there, I am not ready to give up on Erika. Also the wave off of Africa now seems to be firing off some good convection now.
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Quoting rareaire:
Do you need to loosen your chin strap?


NOPE. I could care less who's on ignore... I thought this was a weather blog. NOT a personality contest. I can tell you if it was some of the GREAT blogger's would be out.. Does it really matter to you? If people say something you personally don’t like.. O well !!!Maybe someone else is interested. I see dumb crap all the time. But there just not worth my time. Soooo I go on to the next interesting post. Ok I’m done.. Just saying. Nothing personal
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Tropical Update
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting chevycanes:
so what happened to that anticyclone that some were trying to claim was protecting Erika?

poof.


It moved off, as forecast...do you read charts, ever?
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Updated... this about says it all
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I have a poll going in my blog. No, not a "how strong is it?!?" or "Wherez it goin?!!1!" type poll, but a legitimate question. I'd appreciate it if you could drop by and give your thoughts. Cheers.
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I think Erika has some more suprises for us tonight! It aint over till she cant sing at all!!
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Quoting tropicofcancer:


ROFL
Flood, If it wasn't for you this would be a very boring place!!!


**bows deeply**

Thank you!
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Quoting rareaire:
Your a day ahead what happens, lol.. Im with you on this one to many models still showing potential...


what is your opinion on Erika?
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This hurricane season just got started
Here is my thinking as to what happens with TD Erika as she gets ripped from the Shear to the West!

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
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Quoting Cotillion:


Or even, see what people do if/when we get a repeat of 1950.


lol, till this day I never understood downcasters. Its not wishful but its a known fact that hurricanes will occur every year. So why get lucky in a quiet year when you your only buying time till the next year.

For example 2006-2007 then 2008.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
326. JRRP
the Center Of Circulation
Link
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Flare-ups of thunderstorms beginning now right over the MLC of Erika.
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324. Relix
Going to log off. Erika's thunderstorms are still there, and there's a MLC. Let's see if it does something.
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Quoting Weather456:
I would like to see what some will do when we get a repeat of an active season like 2010. 2009 actually is an anomaly.


Or even, see what people do if/when we get a repeat of 1950.
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Quoting Dakster:
Weather456 -Ok. So you meant to say that 2010 will BE an active year because of climatology, kind of like a 2004/2005 repeat?


its only a hint, not a forecast. Take any long range hints/forecast with a grain of salt.

1 indication is the returning neutral conditions

continued plus AMO

and below normal SLP for march/april 2009


also I never stated any year or years...as every active year was different in its own way.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I'm out for the evening...hope everyone has a great one!


Watch the MLC with Erika blow up overnight...it should be a good show.

Fortunately, it'll only produce a weak low level center...

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last time i checked, dont we have a wave coming off of africa, am i missing something..season over? huh
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254 JRRP [time-lapsed animation loop]

How old is that map? NHC places Erika's center west of the leading edge of the (storm as shown in the last frame of the animation)
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Someone might get egg on their faces yet with Erika imo.
Your a day ahead what happens, lol.. Im with you on this one to many models still showing potential...
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well this blog appears to be in some serious ciaos this afternon.

BBL
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Ok no matter where the new center forms, I think the Islands east of PR have been getting a lot of rain the past 12 hours. Those storms look almost stationary left behind by the remnant low of Erika. So, she left her trash in the Caribbean as she races ahead on a suicide mission.
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Quoting OSUWXGUY:


South Florida of all places... :-)

Too bad south Florida's historical seasons show major hurricanes can hit into late October, and hurricane even later than than...

Now if you lived in Boston and it was October...


haha how about the hurricane season here in Indiana?
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Weather456 -Ok. So you meant to say that 2010 will BE an active year because of climatology, kind of like a 2004/2005 repeat?
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Quoting sfla82:
RIP Erika!!! I am going to go ahead and call the hurricane season over for South Florida! I think that is safe to say!


South Florida of all places... :-)

Too bad south Florida's historical seasons show major hurricanes can hit into late October, and hurricanes even later than that...

Now if you lived in Boston and it was October...
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Yeah it's kind of a shame. I have put a number of decent or better posters on ignore, simply because they kept quoting trolls.

See y'all tomorrow.


so am I on your ignore list now?
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Someone might get egg on their faces yet with Erika imo.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7702
Quoting Weather456:
I would like to see what some will do when we get a repeat of an active season like 2010. 2009 actually is an anomaly.


I think you had a slight typo, 2010 hasn't happened yet although the early signs are pointing to a possibility of an active 2010 season. Way, way, way to early to determine that though.
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so what happened to that anticyclone that some were trying to claim was protecting Erika?

poof.
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Quoting Floodman:


I don't know...there are more Hindus than there are Jews, after all


I'll have to take your word for that one.... Which means I don't dispute your statement.
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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Quoting justalurker:


give him time to modify his post..LOL


nope, wasnt a typo
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting rareaire:
If we put him on ignore it means we dont want to see his post. You two can go and pick out shower curtains for all I care. Just chat without posting him in quotes! !!! We all do it. As for putting you on ignore we'll see! I have asked nicely!


Yeah it's kind of a shame. I have put a number of decent or better posters on ignore, simply because they kept quoting trolls.

See y'all tomorrow.
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Quoting Dakster:


Just how active was the Hurricane Season of 2010?


give him time to modify his post..LOL
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Quoting Dakster:


Just how active was the Hurricane Season of 2010?


that wasnt a typo, next year may repeat some of the bad years based on the climo models for Spring 2009.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting LPStormspotter:


Who made you the blog police?
Do you need to loosen your chin strap?
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Taz, then what about Hurricane Isidore and Lili in 2002? That was an El Nino year.
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297. Lizpr
There's classes and work tomorrow here in PR but I work in a privare college I hope they don't call me! lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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