Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

McAfee virus alert messages
A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hurricane009:
probably this year... LOL


actually this year is above average so far

6th named storm in an average season doesnt form until September 12th
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
what was the Atlantic's least active season on record?
2007
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Erika is starting to pull an Ana: one lone tower on the east side of the center.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
what was the Atlantic's least active season on record?


1845. No storms recorded.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
what was the Atlantic's least active season on record?
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Quoting Cotillion:


- Wind shear.

- Bad organisation.

- Land interaction.

- Subsidence from the MJO.

- Dry air.

- Erika's inability to choose what shoes she wants to wear.
Erika has been one of the more frustrating storms to forecast, so will see!
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
How's everything in La Porte. I'm in Hitchcock. Don't worry about these people. Talk to who you want to talk to. I don't have a single person (thats "0", nada) on my ignore list. I don'I read like a first grader. I can skim through several sentences in a second. If something interesting, I read it, if its stupid or doesn't interest me I ignore it. I ignore it by going to the next post, not by going through the steps to actually ignore someone. I value everyone's opinion even if stupid as say the next CAT5 is going to wipe Texas off of the map. Sorry, had to rant. Put me on ignore if you must, or do like I do and skim on through, thanks.
I meant to quote LPStorm by the way not you rareaire.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
1950 had the most major hurricanes 8 of them
Correct!
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Quoting justalurker:
convection starting to flare up north side..invest 95L 24 to 36hrs? btw, the one behind may be one to watch in the coming days too..SEASON OVER!!..LOL

Even though possibility they may not affect land..still nice to see mother nature in action.

so are most other clouds in the ocean
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weather 456 I was wondering what are the chances of a snowstorm in the SE this coming winter? Im guessing we might get one with all these long wave troughs coming down. I know little about the winter months but what are your thoughts.
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Isnt Erika in better shape than Ana was? Also if she stays over water in the Caribbean, Whats going to stop her from intesifying?


- Wind shear.

- Bad organisation.

- Land interaction. (If it wanders too close to Hispaniola).

- Subsidence from the MJO.

- Dry air.

- Erika's inability to choose what shoes she wants to wear.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Isnt Erika in better shape than Ana was? Also if she stays over water in the Caribbean, Whats going to stop her from intesifying?
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Quoting rareaire:


Well said however you and I are not the only ones on this blog. And we have the ignore feature to remove the wasted lines of those that do not contibute anything to the blog. If you wish to wade through it then start stepping ... However many of us do not and if you constantly quote them it defeats the purpose. There are numerous folks who use this feature and would appreciate your not underminding their right to do so! As for me I have 3 folks on ignore. I too am done!
How's everything in La Porte. I'm in Hitchcock. Don't worry about these people. Talk to who you want to talk to. I don't have a single person (thats "0", nada) on my ignore list. I don't read like a first grader. I can skim through several sentences in a second. If something interesting, I read it, if its stupid or doesn't interest me I ignore it. I ignore it by going to the next post, not by going through the steps to actually ignore someone. I value everyone's opinion even if stupid as say the next CAT5 is going to wipe Texas off of the map. Sorry, had to rant. Put me on ignore if you must, or do like I do and skim on through, thanks.
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2. Which Atlantic season had the most major hurricanes on record?
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ok trying again:


TROPICAL STORM JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 25…CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2009
CORRECTED MOTION PARAGRAPH TO REMOVE MENTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
…JIMENA STILL A TROPICAL STORM…

...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES…140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 30 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT FROM SAN CARLOS MEXICO…LOCATED IN
SONORA STATE JUST WEST OF GUAYMAS… INDICATES THAT ABOUT 25 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.



…SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…27.8N 112.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
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anyone have a picture or radar of the GOM as well as the atlantic? Thanks!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Troughs and fronts mean stalled front and troughs. Watch the tails of those as things can often develop when stalled into the Caribbean, Bahamas, and GOM !


ok, thanks. :)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
1. which is the season in which the most tropical storms formed on record?



Give me your answers!


Atlantic: 2005

E PAcific: 1992
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
1. which is the season in which the most tropical storms formed on record?



Give me your answers!
Atlantic Basin
Quoting Floodman:


Atlantic Basin, or PAC?
Atlantic Basin
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convection starting to flare up north side..invest 95L 24 to 36hrs? btw, the one behind may be one to watch in the coming days too..SEASON OVER!!..LOL

Even though possibility they may not affect land..still nice to see mother nature in action.

Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
420. JLPR
Are there any chances for something to develop out of the MLC that Erika abandoned?

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
1. which is the season in which the most tropical storms formed on record?



Give me your answers!


Atlantic Basin, or PAC?
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
wont change 456, your knowledge should not be wasted on a place that cares more about who is right and wrong and who eats crow more than it does getting people the right information.

There are good people on this site, but the childish games makes it harder and harder to see these people.



while i do feel so sometimes, its not entirely wasted. I do have a met job but also feel that it can be shared with other folks on the website, hence my blog.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Being a first time poster long time lurker and a interested resident of S. Florida that is still cleaning up from Wilma, I wanted to thank all the serious weather fans for a great ride with Erika, I learned more about Tropical Systems in the last week then I have in the other 4o years on the planet. Thanks again.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


ok, but isn't there a lot of shear and troughs this year for things to really develop in the GOM? just curious...


Troughs and fronts mean stalled front and troughs. Watch the tails of those as things can often develop when stalled into the Caribbean, Bahamas, and GOM !
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Quoting Cotillion:


A bit of a bad example. 1995 also coincided with the start of the positive AMO.

1984 or 88 might work.


true, not a perfect example, but La Nina did influence that season since it is used in today's literature when referring to Enso impacts on Atlantic TC activity.

For example, 1997 was very inactive but it was apart of the same AMO period but El Nino influences won that year just like 2006 and 2009.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
412. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Storm "LABUYO" has changed course and is now moving northeastward.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
========================
At 5:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Labuyo (Dujuan) located at 17.1°N 128.2°E or 620 kms east of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 km/h (40 knots) with gustiness up to 90 km/h (50 knots).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Cagayan
2.Isabela Provinces

Additional Information
======================
This disturbance is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional to frequent rains over Luzon and Visayas particularly the western sections.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes specially the western sections of Southern Luzon and Visayas are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
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.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


dude, 1993 was apart of a very long lasting El Nino....the El Nino of 1991-1994.

The year after that El Nino was 1995 which further reinforce the point.


Nevermind.
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I know Erika has been downgraded and everybody is sick of her, just waiting for the final nail to be offically laid in her coffin, but I don't believe she is finished just yet!!
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Quoting Floodman:
@385.

Bear in mind that systems below (south) of 10N have very little effect due to coriolis, other than the tendency to move poleward...though the jog forecast for the CV wave in quiesrtion has more to do with a low passing above it..after the passage of the low the forecast path is more W
correct
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wont change 456, your knowledge should not be wasted on a place that cares more about who is right and wrong and who eats crow more than it does getting people the right information.

There are good people on this site, but the childish games makes it harder and harder to see these people.
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Erika's MLC seems to be gaining strength. An outflow channel is trying to develop on the NE side of the circulation, but dry air seems to be hampering any thunderstorm development. Storms are erupting though over the supposed MLC.
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@385.

Bear in mind that systems below (south) of 10N have very little effect due to coriolis, other than the tendency to move poleward...though the jog forecast for the CV wave in quiesrtion has more to do with a low passing above it..after the passage of the low the forecast path is more W
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deleted post, problems with edit
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No way, the Gulf of Mexico is always open for business as well as the Caribbean Sea especially the NW Caribbean. Just right now it doesn't look favorable but I expect that to change as we go through cycles in the wind shear world.
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Quoting rareaire:
Tampa so your thinking along my thinking which kinda scares you doesnt it!!


Yep! It does!
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Quoting Weather456:


dude, 1993 was apart of a very long lastin El Nino....the El Nino of 1991-1994.

The year after that El Nino was 1995 which further reinstate the point.


A bit of a bad example. 1995 also coincided with the start of the positive AMO.

1984 or 88 might work.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
why are people trolls if they dont want a strong season?
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Quoting superpete:
It will be interesting to see just how far west it continues,in the short term.
This will probably just dissipate in less than 36 hours, but Haiti and the Dominican Republic have to watch this due to the possibility of strong gusts, mudslides, flooding, and much more.
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Season is over ,how did everyone due on predections?I said 2 storms but we had 5 ,how did everyone else do?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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