Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

McAfee virus alert messages
A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

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597. Lizpr
Quoting serialteg:


Here in Puerto Rico you can have a 20 minute holdup on a 5 lane expressway because, for some reason, people find someone changing a tire on the side of the road fascinating. Just remembering these events makes me want to scream at something.

I live now on a place where there's almost no traffic at any time. Truly a blessing


No traffic? that's paradise lol
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Quoting MysteryMeat:
Why is everyone so fired up about Erika coming back, even though all the experts have it dying out? What are you guys seeing that the NHC and Masters aren't?
It's because we're paranoid and suspicious of storms that wax and wane - like Erika....

Lots of us were 1/2 expecting an Ana comeback also.
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Quoting futuremet:
Thanks guys ;)
Where are you from ? Gotta love a guy with an accent ;)
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Thanks guys ;)
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Quoting weathermancer:
a hybrid pre-post-tropical storm


Speechless
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1980
Quoting Patrap:


Rickys warming up In shirt and Uniform Pants,,thats all everyones asking here too.

Nice in a Suite,..never been before, They have Hors Dvores,Internet,..and a Cute Lil Gal that keeps refreshing my Budweiser,,LOL


Okay, I promise this is my last post...are you telling me that you're at the game, in a Suite and you're on here? Pat, my dear friend, concentrate on your beer and the Cute Lil Gal and let the blog go for tonight...LOL
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Quoting serialteg:


Here in Puerto Rico you can have a 20 minute holdup on a 5 lane expressway because, for some reason, people find someone changing a tire on the side of the road fascinating. Just remembering these events makes me want to scream at something.

I live now on a place where there's almost no traffic at any time. Truly a blessing
ha! Well, I can see slowing down for someone pulled over but I hink more are hopeful of seeing a body. Human nature is very strange.. imo.
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Quoting AllStar17:
A good point by Jim Cantore:
"Erika is expected to dissipate in time.....but I am not buying into it dying a quick death. It is the peak of hurricane season, and we need to watch it until it becomes absolutely NOTHING!"

True.
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Quoting futuremet:
Video Tutorial

Diurnal Phases explained

Thanks for that! Cool to watch and listen and made much more understandable.
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Quoting Drakoen:
It appears the quikcscat will catch the circulation off the coast of Africa this evening.


Yep will be interesting ...
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 799
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Basically I just call it human nature. It's the same reason people like scary movies, roller coasters, and can't help rubber necking at a car accident ;)


Here in Puerto Rico you can have a 20 minute holdup on a 5 lane expressway because, for some reason, people find someone changing a tire on the side of the road fascinating. Just remembering these events makes me want to scream at something.

I live now on a place where there's almost no traffic at any time. Truly a blessing
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1980
Quoting Cotillion:


..Isn't that the music from FF7's Costa Del Sol?


Yup....as long as it matches lol
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Quoting futuremet:
Video Tutorial

Diurnal Phases explained



..Isn't that the music from FF7's Costa Del Sol?
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Hmmmm.... beginning to look more and more like we won't even get much moisture from ex-Erika.... though I'm waiting to see how things go tonight before I feel confident about that. For me, best possible track now is due west without stopping. (no dipping south towards Costa Rica, just straight across central America....)
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Quoting TampaSpin:


NO WAY! The GOM becomes even more active late in the season!

Unless you get into that usual October pattern...then climatological chances for all but the eastern GOM drop.

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Quoting chucky7777:
you lucky thing enjoy the game....What is your forecast for the game???? lolol.....


72 F Clear, and Lotsa Women..Reow.
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Quoting ackee:
looks like 2009 seasons may be best seasons in recent time even when we do have system develop the centre is no where near convection hope this trend will continue


What about Bill?
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Evening all.

Quoting Weather456:



while i do feel so sometimes, its not entirely wasted. I do have a met job but also feel that it can be shared with other folks on the website, hence my blog.
Glad to hear abt the met job.... lol

I don't think ur efforts are wasted even here on this loco board. Your cool-headed and thoughtful approach to what u do has been a good model for people who are genuinely interested in weather to follow. There will always be a few silly people. But if the sensible people all disappear, the blog.... well, it drowns....

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574. 789
Quoting futuremet:
I will post a video here tonight that I just made. The question "What is DMAX and DMIN?" has been asked too many times here. The explains how diurnal phases work.
what time ill be sure to watch
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Bill hit Newfoundland (landfall). Danny hit Nova Scotia as a hybrid pre-post-tropical storm interacting with low pressure system.

Question: has two COC from one storm ever formed two separate COC (storms)... likewise... has a MLC and a LLC also ever formed two separate storms?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
BAP is right there is to be an upward motion late sept early oct


ok then, I will definitely keep my eyes open for that....
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Video Tutorial

Diurnal Phases explained



The script version is available in my blog
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It appears the quikcscat will catch the circulation off the coast of Africa this evening.
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569. Relix
That minor thunderstorm bump in the center seems to be of no concern. It's not going to make a comeback here guys, ;let her go =P
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ABPZ30 KNHC 011521
TWSEP
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AUGUST WAS AN EXTREMELY ACTIVE MONTH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN.
SEVEN TROPICAL STORMS FORMED...OF WHICH THREE BECAME HURRICANES...
AND ALL OF THE HURRICANES EVENTUALLY BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES. THIS
COMPARES TO THE LONG-TERM AUGUST AVERAGE OF ABOUT 4 TROPICAL
STORMS...2 HURRICANES...AND 1 MAJOR HURRICANE. THIS IS THE FIRST
TIME SINCE 1985 THAT 7 TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN ANY MONTH IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND THE MOST NAMED STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED IN THE
MONTH OF AUGUST SINCE 1968 WHEN 8 FORMED. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST
TIME SINCE 1998 THAT THREE MAJOR HURRICANES HAVE FORMED IN ANY
MONTH IN THE BASIN.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2009EPAC.SHTML

NOAA HAS JUST RELEASED THE INAUGURAL EDITION OF A TRACK BOOK FOR
EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. THIS BOOK CONTAINS CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...
TRACK MAPS FROM THE YEARS 1949-2008...AND BASIN STATISTICS ON
MEXICAN HURRICANE LANDFALL. MORE INFORMATION IS AT THE NHC
WEBSITE...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTBOOKEPAC.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH) DEATHS
---------------------------------------------------------------
TD ONE-E 18-19 JUN 35 0
H ANDRES 21-24 JUN 80 1
TS BLANCA 6-8 JUL 50 0
H CARLOS 10-16 JUL 105 0
TS DOLORES 15-17 JUL 50 0
TS LANA* 30 JUL-3 AUG 65 0
TS ENRIQUE 3-7 AUG 60 0
MH FELICIA 4-11 AUG 140 0
TD NINE-E 9-13 AUG 35 0
MH GUILLERMO 12-20 AUG 125 0
TS HILDA 22-28 AUG 65 0
TS IGNACIO 24-27 AUG 50 0
MH JIMENA 29 AUG-- 155 0
TS KEVIN 29 AUG-- 50 0
---------------------------------------------------------------

*LANA DEVELOPED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E THAT FORMED IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. HOWEVER...IT DID NOT REACH TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH UNTIL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THEREFORE IT
ACQUIRED A NAME FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN LIST OF NAMES.




000
ABNT30 KNHC 011154
TWSAT
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

FOUR TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN AUGUST...ONE OF WHICH REACHED MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS. THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE FOR AUGUST IS ABOUT 4
TROPICAL STORMS...2 HURRICANES...AND 1 MAJOR HURRICANE. IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...ACE...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...AUGUST
WAS ABOUT 30 PERCENT ABOVE THE LONG-TERM MEAN...PRIMARILY DUE TO
HURRICANE BILL.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2009ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH) DEATHS
--------------------------------------------------------------
TD ONE 28-29 MAY 35 0
TS ANA 11-17 AUG 40 0
MH BILL 15-24 AUG 135 2
TS CLAUDETTE 16-18 AUG 50 0
TS DANNY 26-29 AUG 60 1

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALISTS UNIT

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Quoting Patrap:


Rickys warming up In shirt and Uniform Pants,,thats all everyones asking here too.

Nice in a Suite,..never been before, They have Hors Dvores,Internet,..and a Cute Lil Gal that keeps refreshing mu Budweiser,,LOL
you lucky thing enjoy the game....What is your forecast for the game???? lolol.....
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Really.....October? seems like they are usually in September.
BAP is right there is to be an upward motion late sept early oct
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Quoting Funkadelic:
I think I know why people wishcast storms. It seems it is more of a mental thing then anything. There are people out there who LOVE hype, and caios. It is sort of like children or teenagers when a new video game system comes out. You will see people sleeping on street corners trtying to get that system before anyone else.

As with storms, before a landfall you will see grocery stores packed, gas stations swarmed, and News stations with 24/7 coverage. Even during the storm people may find it exciting, experiencing moter nature raw and un-cut until they go outside and see the damage and devastation caused by these storms. So while some may find it weird why people wishcast, in my opinion I think it is a mental thing.

And I did not copy and paste this, as you can tell by my gramatical errors. Lol just bored and I'm trying to pass time before wife comes home and makes me cook..:)


Basically I just call it human nature. It's the same reason people like scary movies, roller coasters, and can't help rubber necking at a car accident ;)
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ABPZ30 KNHC 011521
TWSEP
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AUGUST WAS AN EXTREMELY ACTIVE MONTH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN.
SEVEN TROPICAL STORMS FORMED...OF WHICH THREE BECAME HURRICANES...
AND ALL OF THE HURRICANES EVENTUALLY BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES. THIS
COMPARES TO THE LONG-TERM AUGUST AVERAGE OF ABOUT 4 TROPICAL
STORMS...2 HURRICANES...AND 1 MAJOR HURRICANE. THIS IS THE FIRST
TIME SINCE 1985 THAT 7 TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN ANY MONTH IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND THE MOST NAMED STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED IN THE
MONTH OF AUGUST SINCE 1968 WHEN 8 FORMED. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST
TIME SINCE 1998 THAT THREE MAJOR HURRICANES HAVE FORMED IN ANY
MONTH IN THE BASIN.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2009EPAC.SHTML

NOAA HAS JUST RELEASED THE INAUGURAL EDITION OF A TRACK BOOK FOR
EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. THIS BOOK CONTAINS CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...
TRACK MAPS FROM THE YEARS 1949-2008...AND BASIN STATISTICS ON
MEXICAN HURRICANE LANDFALL. MORE INFORMATION IS AT THE NHC
WEBSITE...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTBOOKEPAC.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH) DEATHS
---------------------------------------------------------------
TD ONE-E 18-19 JUN 35 0
H ANDRES 21-24 JUN 80 1
TS BLANCA 6-8 JUL 50 0
H CARLOS 10-16 JUL 105 0
TS DOLORES 15-17 JUL 50 0
TS LANA* 30 JUL-3 AUG 65 0
TS ENRIQUE 3-7 AUG 60 0
MH FELICIA 4-11 AUG 140 0
TD NINE-E 9-13 AUG 35 0
MH GUILLERMO 12-20 AUG 125 0
TS HILDA 22-28 AUG 65 0
TS IGNACIO 24-27 AUG 50 0
MH JIMENA 29 AUG-- 155 0
TS KEVIN 29 AUG-- 50 0
---------------------------------------------------------------

*LANA DEVELOPED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E THAT FORMED IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. HOWEVER...IT DID NOT REACH TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH UNTIL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THEREFORE IT
ACQUIRED A NAME FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN LIST OF NAMES.




000
ABNT30 KNHC 011154
TWSAT
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

FOUR TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN AUGUST...ONE OF WHICH REACHED MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS. THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE FOR AUGUST IS ABOUT 4
TROPICAL STORMS...2 HURRICANES...AND 1 MAJOR HURRICANE. IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...ACE...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...AUGUST
WAS ABOUT 30 PERCENT ABOVE THE LONG-TERM MEAN...PRIMARILY DUE TO
HURRICANE BILL.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2009ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH) DEATHS
--------------------------------------------------------------
TD ONE 28-29 MAY 35 0
TS ANA 11-17 AUG 40 0
MH BILL 15-24 AUG 135 2
TS CLAUDETTE 16-18 AUG 50 0
TS DANNY 26-29 AUG 60 1

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALISTS UNIT

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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Is Reggie going to play?
If this were a real game it would be very interesting. I'm watching it on TV anyway. The hell with Erica.


Rickys warming up In shirt and Uniform Pants,,thats all everyones asking here too.

Nice in a Suite,..never been before, They have Hors Dvores,Internet,..and a Cute Lil Gal that keeps refreshing my Budweiser,,LOL
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Quoting MysteryMeat:
Why is everyone so fired up about Erika coming back, even though all the experts have it dying out? What are you guys seeing that the NHC and Masters aren't?
Everyone loves an underdog lol
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Most recent HH run. I added a scale at the bottom. The four lines represent 10, 20, 40, and 80 knots.
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Hurricane009--It also shows 3 in the East Pac!
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
largest threat to the US will be middle of September on through October

a pretty strong upward motion in the MJO is forecasted for October for the GOM and Caribbean

wouldnt be surprised if there was an upswing at that point


Really.....October? seems like they are usually in September.
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Quoting Hurricane009:

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This picture shows Fred, Grace, Henri, and Ida. Fred near South Carolina and North Carolina, Grace in the central atlan -
tic, Henri almost halfway between the Islands and Ida coming off the coast of africa on Tuesday - Thursday next week! Should be an interesting week next week! Also, this model shows Fred as a significant storm near the coast of NC. Still a long ways a way, but still something to watch.


Holy crap!
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Did the system we had back in May,in the N GOM, ever make it to a TD?
No ........
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Quoting Hurricane009:
New Blog postedGuys and Gals, please check it out. PLEASE!!... LOL!!

Erika does love the night life!!?? Maybe a bit of a come back??
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I can't remember a storm like Erika, that sits near the Antilles like this, hanging out at the mid levels.

Nothing usually hangs out here, especially this long.
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Why is everyone so fired up about Erika coming back, even though all the experts have it dying out? What are you guys seeing that the NHC and Masters aren't?
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A good point by Jim Cantore:
"Erika is expected to dissipate in time.....but I am not buying into it dying a quick death. It is the peak of hurricane season, and we need to watch it until it becomes absolutely NOTHING!"
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and the college football season begins
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Sheesh..LOL

Not much meat on these here Bones..

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Im sitting in a Box Suite at the Superdome ..as the Saints Miami Game starts at 7 CDT.

Just looping the GOM and views.

Beers damn Cold here too..LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.