Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

McAfee virus alert messages
A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 647 - 597

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

good bye ERIKA RIP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's my forecast .... ....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Its a ghost town in here. I predict it will get busy again tomorrow...she's not done!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermancer:


Thanks.
I'll go dig thru the archives...

Archives? Oh, didn't know, thanks I'll look around....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting serialteg:


... and it's called Ponce.

2 mins. to the big mall (plaza del caribe)
4 mins. to basically all colleges
3 mins. from hangout spots and pubs
4 mins. walking from 24hrs Walgreens

light (power) and water consistent on for a year, no major or noticeable blackouts or the AAA taking the water off (just two low pressure instances)

you get the idea.


...lucky. where in Ponce is that??? I don't get those short drives.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
641. JLPR
two low pressure areas in the Eastrn and Catl Atlantic and one in the GOM
...interesting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jerrob:
can someone let me know what comment number is futuremet tutorial. I missed it and would like to watch. thanks in advance


It is in my blog
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
619

Thanks Funkdadelic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think Erika has other plans. Most convetion I have ever seen near center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Figures.. as soon as I write that it's calm a huge crack of thunder rolls outside and heavy rains come back. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
actually atmoaggie had very good answers for that last night.
Sorry I missed it must have stepped away. Could you give me the "short" of it? Yes possible or no. Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
can someone let me know what comment number is futuremet tutorial. I missed it and would like to watch. thanks in advance
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just completed a Tropical Update if anyone would like to view!

I out for now BBL watching the RAYS vs sox
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting serialteg:


What's the alcohol %?


5% alcohol here in Nova Scotia... 5 1/2% in Newfoundland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Haven't really posted much this year, but Futuremet, you have prompted me to post. Keep up the great work. Clearly you are a talented and dedicated young man. I look forward to many more informative posts and updates from you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting serialteg:


Jade, so the strongest you felt Erika was today at 3AM-ish?


Well I slept through most of the winds I think. They were pretty gusty around sunrise then died right down for the rest of the day. Rain was pretty steady but it's pretty still out there right now. I expect to see more rain this evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermancer:


Meant as joke...
we get all the weird storms up here. Must be the beer.


What's the alcohol %?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


Okay, I promise this is my last post...are you telling me that you're at the game, in a Suite and you're on here? Pat, my dear friend, concentrate on your beer and the Cute Lil Gal and let the blog go for tonight...LOL
Ditto. LOL. Have fun Pat. Suites are Sweet!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Futuremet: really liked your tutorial, thanks for putting it up for us.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JadeInAntigua:


I hope not.. I have Erika-itis from staring at her satellite loops. She seems to really like the area right next to us though.


Jade, so the strongest you felt Erika was today at 3AM-ish?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Funkadelic:
WOW I am impressed with one of our fellow Bloggers. He goes by the name of Futuremet. I just watched his youtube video's and let me tell you, this guy is for real and is VERY knowledgable. He has passion for what he does, and I would love to see him succeed in what he loves. From now im really going to listen carefully to what he posts on the blog.

Keep working hard futuremet, your future will become a reality fairly soon!


Agreed, one of the most solid on the blog!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting serialteg:


Last time I flew my Cessna into a 'cane...

It's just funny how something can be a hybrid pre-post anything. Pre and post are two conflicting prefixes. A start-ending tropical cyclone?


Meant as joke...
we get all the weird storms up here. Must be the beer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Funkadelic:
WOW I am impressed with one of our fellow Bloggers. He goes by the name of Futuremet. I just watched his youtube video's and let me tell you, this guy is for real and is VERY knowledgable. He has passion for what he does, and I would love to see him succeed in what he loves. From now im really going to listen carefully to what he posts on the blog.

Keep working hard futuremet, your future will become a reality fairly soon!


I definitely agree... He is top 3 for me when it comes to people I listen to on here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Lizpr:
Hmm she does'nt want to die?


"Best Looking Invest I have Ever Seen"

- Multiple wonderbloggers 3 Days ago
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermancer:


just trying to get some answers...

You guys must all be ex-hurricane pilots or sumthin...


Last time I flew my Cessna into a 'cane...

It's just funny how something can be a hybrid pre-post anything. Pre and post are two conflicting prefixes. A start-ending tropical cyclone?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
621. Lizpr
Hmm she does'nt want to die?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
This is the most convection I've seen near the LLC of Erika, wonder if she might plotting a comeback.


I hope not.. I have Erika-itis from staring at her satellite loops. She seems to really like the area right next to us though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
actually atmoaggie had very good answers for that last night.


Thanks.
I'll go dig thru the archives...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shucks.

Gotta step out for a while. Fut, I'll look at the vid when I get back. I may want to bookmark it for a friend of mine.

BBL...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Funkadelic:


October is the only month that scares me during hurricane season. This is due to the fact that I live in florida, and landfall is common that time of year. Just as long as we dont see another wilma we should be good.



Ya know, Fred is next and he may just come looking to see where Wilma has been!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
615. 789
very nice thank you ill have to check out some of the others
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
614. Lizpr
Quoting serialteg:


... and it's called Ponce.



eww no lol kidding but I rather stay in Caguas
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting serialteg:


Speechless


just trying to get some answers...

You guys must all be ex-hurricane pilots or sumthin...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting midgulfmom:
Good evening. Someone asked that question last night but if it was answered I don't know but I would like to also.
actually atmoaggie had very good answers for that last night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

Unless you get into that usual October pattern...then climatological chances for all but the eastern GOM drop.

The S.W. Florida coast has received more strikes from tropical cyclones in the month of October than any other month. Some of them very intense.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539
Quoting Vortex95:


LMAO oh man.

Anyways when is the quickscat going to hit over the African wave?


Right now it's blank...

I know, I don't know when, but that's my answer :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:


Haiti..
aha, french, creole.. cool sounding.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermancer:
Bill hit Newfoundland (landfall). Danny hit Nova Scotia as a hybrid pre-post-tropical storm interacting with low pressure system.

Question: has two COC from one storm ever formed two separate COC (storms)... likewise... has a MLC and a LLC also ever formed two separate storms?
Good evening. Someone asked that question last night but if it was answered I don't know but I would like to also.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is the most convection I've seen near the LLC of Erika, wonder if she might plotting a comeback.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Lizpr:


No traffic? that's paradise lol


... and it's called Ponce.

2 mins. to the big mall (plaza del caribe)
4 mins. to basically all colleges
3 mins. from hangout spots and pubs
4 mins. walking from 24hrs Walgreens

light (power) and water consistent on for a year, no major or noticeable blackouts or the AAA taking the water off (just two low pressure instances)

you get the idea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's because we're paranoid and suspicious of storms that wax and wane - like Erika....

Lots of us were 1/2 expecting an Ana comeback also.


It's edifying to go back and read the archives of Dr. Masters' blogs with the comments and see how many major storms were "RIP-cast" at various points, not just by blog posters but by most of the models. I think this is why we like to keep our eyes open.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
Where are you from ? Gotta love a guy with an accent ;)


Haiti..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting serialteg:


If we were cannibals and were about to feast on roadkill, maybe it would make sense
Not speaking for myself, only speaking for others here when I say, we *are* cannibals feasting on roadkill! ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Really.....October? seems like they are usually in September.
Seems like everything is happening 3-4 weeks late this season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS tracks it WNW for the next 48-72 then shift to a more westward the next 5 days. Well will see what happends. But that is a nasty big circulation over there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
ha! Well, I can see slowing down for someone pulled over but I hink more are hopeful of seeing a body. Human nature is very strange.. imo.


If we were cannibals and were about to feast on roadkill, maybe it would make sense

"Hey Honey! Guess what? Looks like we'll skip tonight's KFC!"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
597. Lizpr
Quoting serialteg:


Here in Puerto Rico you can have a 20 minute holdup on a 5 lane expressway because, for some reason, people find someone changing a tire on the side of the road fascinating. Just remembering these events makes me want to scream at something.

I live now on a place where there's almost no traffic at any time. Truly a blessing


No traffic? that's paradise lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 647 - 597

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
72 °F
Mostly Cloudy