Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

McAfee virus alert messages
A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 697 - 647

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

697. JLPR
Erika refuses to die



LLC firing up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

Am I being stalked?
lol I was telling them that you had good answers for the whole splitting storm discussion last night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
this new opera 10.0 RC is way better then 3.5 firefox opera 10.0 RC is vary fast it olny take sacs too lode a page


and has more security holes in it that a pound of swiss cheese, no thanks I will stay with firefox. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
ERIKA gone by AM
I agree completly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


If you go to edit on your menu bar. Go to find on this page and type in atmo's handle you can skip to his posts. :)

Am I being stalked?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
this new opera 10.0 RC is way better then 3.5 firefox opera 10.0 RC is vary fast it olny take sacs too lode a page
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
Quoting aquak9:
if you click on futuremet's name, it'll take you to his blog...and you can see he lists his home as Port St Lucie.
oh really? I'm in St lucie too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:


If you go to edit on your menu bar. Go to find on this page and type in atmo's handle you can skip to his posts. :)


Yes, and if you are looking for a specific post on a past blog, go to a search engine like Yahoo & type the poster's handle, a search string "a piece of the text you want to find" enclosed in quotation marks - it must be exact if you enclose it in quotes, and add site:wunderground.com The search string should be a few words together that you remember are unique to that post. It might not work with very recent posts, as the web "crawlers" might not have "seen" it yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
ERIKA gone by AM


Agree
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting midgulfmom:
Sorry I missed it must have stepped away. Could you give me the "short" of it? Yes possible or no. Thanks
didnt seem likely at all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ERIKA gone by AM
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
Nice pocket of dry air inside the GOMEX
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Evening!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
Things could get VERY interesting if Erika decides to avoid Hispaniola to the south.


I agree. Looks like she might. Of course none of the models or anyone agrees with me. Lol. Just going by what Im seeing. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
if you click on futuremet's name, it'll take you to his blog...and you can see he lists his home as Port St Lucie.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I haven't gone yet, just finished packing for by big trip. Anyone that has the time, please refer to my blog #177 earlier this evening. You might find it a bit interesting. Considering what may be happening to Erika. In case I don't hear from any one you, stay well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good night everyone! Check early in the morning
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE LOW PRES FORMED NEAR 27N86W
1012 MB ALONG THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM W
FL TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT SYSTEM TO DRIFT E THIS
AFTERNOON THEN STALL EARLY TONIGHT...THEN MOVE BACK NW FRI AS NE
TO SW RIDGE BUILDS OVER E GULF SAT THROUGH TUE.

ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH 30N76W TO 27N78W WILL MEANDER UNTIL A
STRONGER TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO THE NW
BAHAMAS...MOVES NW AND MERGES WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH FRI NIGHT.
THE MERGED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE EXTREME NW
WATERS NEXT WEEK. T.S. ERIKA E OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NW INTO SE CORNER OF ATLC ZONE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRI
MORNING AND THEN TRACK NW OVER THE SE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...MINIMAL T.S. ERIKA EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NW PASSING ACROSS PUERTO RICO FRI WITH ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONS NW OF AREA BY LATE SAT AS WINDS BECOME SE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. SMALL AREA ENHANCED WINDS ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRI THEN WILL RELAX SOME SAT AND SUN AS
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OUT THE THE NW.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:



12hrs



Good size blob on us on your radar loop - guess we'll be having this rain for awhile yet tonight.

Can't believe how quiet the blog is... I could barely keep up last night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Things could get VERY interesting if Erika decides to avoid Hispaniola to the south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Funkadelic:
Does anyone know where Futuremet lives? I think it is south Florida but im not sure. I'd love to invite him with me on a storm scase adventure if a storm comes to Florida.


He said earlier that his accent was Haitian, not sure if that means he lives there or not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



dont need to yell Please take off your caps





ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Funkadelic:
Does anyone know where Futuremet lives? I think it is south Florida but im not sure. I'd love to invite him with me on a storm scase adventure if a storm comes to Florida.


His blog says Port St Lucie.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting midgulfmom:
LOL, I don't have THAT much time either. I wonder if you can look up automaggie's comments alone? I'll check.


If you go to edit on your menu bar. Go to find on this page and type in atmo's handle you can skip to his posts. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting midgulfmom:
LOL, I don't have THAT much time either. I wonder if you can look up automaggie's comments alone? I'll check.


"automaggie" LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:
Well, I'm out for the night.

thanks guys

night! thanks for your imput.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, I'm out for the night.

thanks guys
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
667. jipmg
Quoting msphar:
Jimena has stalled over the Sea of Cortez and is pumping prodigious amounts of water into the atmosphere over Mexico.


link to satellite
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lordhuracan01:
WHAT'S GOING WITH ERIKA?



dont need to yell Please take off your caps



Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
Good afternoon/evening? Oh wll. my morning. :)

Looks like our girl is still confounding everyone. Getting her naked self dressed for another evening out. Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting serialteg:


... and it's called Ponce.

2 mins. to the big mall (plaza del caribe)
4 mins. to basically all colleges
3 mins. from hangout spots and pubs
4 mins. walking from 24hrs Walgreens

light (power) and water consistent on for a year, no major or noticeable blackouts or the AAA taking the
water off (just two low pressure instances)

you get the idea.

Ponce es Ponce lo demas es Parking,,!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jimena has stalled over the Sea of Cortez and is pumping prodigious amounts of water into the atmosphere over Mexico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Funkadelic:
Well just to let you all know my HD camera came in the mail today from amazon.com. I have a great set up here in Florida, so if any hurricane comes this way, I will provide you guys with live coverage. Also I have plans of haveing a live stream of my preperations, and interviewing my neighbors.

I know cycloneoz does a great job, but I feel that with the help of my couisns, and some close friend's I will provide SAFE live coverage in HD. So I dont wishcast, but Im excited to venture out in my first storm since 2005.


Yea, I can't wait to see CycloneOZ's coverage in HD. Hopefully you'll get some nice shots.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just completed a Tropical Update if anyone would like to view!

I out for now BBL watching the RAYS vs sox


GO RAYS! Though I'm a Yankee fan, I visit Tampa at least a couple of times a year and I've been thisclose to just move there once and for all. I'm already a Bucs & Lightning fan so I'm halfway there. ;-)

Back to Erika...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WHAT'S GOING WITH ERIKA?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
guys any storms that follow the path of ERIKA will get rip apart by wind shear is they even come near the USA we are now geting too that time of year where stronger storm overe the USA dip more S wish means we get higher wind shear
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
Quoting Lizpr:
Hmm she does'nt want to die?
Pretty sure with D max she will probably have another of those wild nights and died during the day time,,hope that tonights flare up don't cause most damage here in Puerto Rico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermancer:


I gave up... there are 6,000 posts from last night.
doh.
LOL, I don't have THAT much time either. I wonder if you can look up automaggie's comments alone? I'll check.
Member Since: July 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1110
655. JLPR


convection keeps expanding
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why does it appear on the visible that Erika's trying to form another COC to the northeast of the NHC COC?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Futuremet! That was really good. You have a good future ahead of you... :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting midgulfmom:

Archives? Oh, didn't know, thanks I'll look around....


I gave up... there are 6,000 posts from last night.
doh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Funkadelic:
Well just to let you all know my HD camera came in the mail today from amazon.com. I have a great set up here in Florida, so if any hurricane comes this way, I will provide you guys with live coverage. Also I have plans of haveing a live stream of my preperations, and interviewing my neighbors.

I know cycloneoz does a great job, but I feel that with the help of my couisns, and some close friend's I will provide SAFE live coverage in HD. So I dont wishcast, but Im excited to venture out in my first storm since 2005.

Where in Florida r u?> I am near Daytona Beach and would love to be part of that if it happens...Hoping it doesnt though, had enough with 2004....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking good for future 95L to develop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
it has been quite stormy in dominica over the past 24hrs. moderate to heavy thunderstorms last night with at least 10inches of rain. waiting to see wat the new wave just off africa is going to do
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good bye ERIKA RIP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728

Viewing: 697 - 647

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
77 °F
Mostly Cloudy