Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

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Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

McAfee virus alert messages
A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Futuremet-

bon travay
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Quoting JupiterFL:


He lives in PSL, FL. He would be a good one to take on a chase. He is one of the best young forecasters on this blog. I always pay attention to what he and Drak have to say.


Hey Jupiter, you are pretty good at analysis. Look at the Link homelesswanderer posted on #735, and see if you see Erika jump her little convection right over the center.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23672
The latest visible images show the center coming out from under the convection and then it totally stalling, and now the convection is rebuilding over that area.

i am not sure if the center just stopped or if a new one was reforming or if it was just opening up...any thoughts?
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744. JLPR
Erika is mostly dead

Radar
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Quoting xoverau:


Heck yes, me too! There are about eight people here whose posts I follow avidly, and they're two of them.
I'll definitely be watching for his input in the future on any storms.
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Quoting Grothar:


thanks my friend. Can you do the VISIBLE on this site as well. Really appreciate it.


Your welcome. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


? lost me..

Lost myself.
Quoting midgulfmom:
Atmoaggie, I'm so sorry and confused.

Don't worry about sorry.
What are you confused about?

1. The pic is not me, but one of my sons. I am not a 4-year-old.
2. In supercell thunderstorms in the plains, there have been storms that split and maintain 2 separate cells. They have been detected by radar.
3. Tropical systems apparently have done this under very high shear conditions (much higher than that needed for the severe weather in the plains). BUT, this has only been done in modeling, to my knowledge, and would be an exceedingly rare occurrence in the real world.
4. I am not maggie. Once upon a time, Atmospheric Science student at Texas A&M, a school whose students are fondly known as Aggies due to it's Agricultural College heritage. AtmoAggie.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
740. bwi
Martinique radar animation shows the rotating storms around the islands pretty well.
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18z GFS

Lots of fun to watch, probably won't come to much - lol!!
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Quoting JupiterFL:


He lives in PSL, FL. He would be a good one to take on a chase. He is one of the best young forecasters on this blog. I always pay attention to what he and Drak have to say.


Heck yes, me too! There are about eight people here whose posts I follow avidly, and they're two of them.
Member Since: July 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Link


thanks my friend. Can you do the VISIBLE on this site as well. Really appreciate it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23672
Quoting Relix:


Since it stalled I am watching if it will jog north or something. Rains are mostly gone though, 70% of convection died... it's a dead system really, but it still has that circulation and Erika is just crazy enough to pull out something like that. Oh, and it isn't even DMAX =P


Dmax or no Dmax, this is sad



Only fuels more Puerto Rican "pichaera" to the tropics ("why all the fuss if it's not coming? bah")

In other words Erika was a classic.
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sorry that wasnt the visible.

Link
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
# DUJUAN (LABUYO) has tracked Eastward...now a Tropical Storm.

*Residents and visitors along Southern Japan & Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of DUJUAN (LABUYO).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: DUJUAN is expected to turn to the NE and accelerate across the warm Northern Philippine Sea. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system becoming a Category 1 Typhoon with winds of 140 kph on Monday Sep 07 and shall exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday Sep 08. It shall be approaching the Southern Coast of Honshu, Japan on Wednesday Sep 09.

+ Effects: Broad circulation of DUJUAN continues to spreading across the Northern Philippine Sea, briefly affecting the Bicol Region. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 5 up to 20 mm can be expected along the Bicol Region increasing to 200 mm along the storm's inner rain bands...Isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm is possible near the center of DUJUAN. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 45 kph with occasional thunderstorms and rains can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, VISAYAS, PALAWAN & MINDORO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) partially exposed near the coast of Vietnam but may develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours...currently located near lat 15.6N lon 109.7E...or about 170 km ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...Quasi-Stationary.

This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.
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Quoting JupiterFL:


He lives in PSL, FL. He would be a good one to take on a chase. He is one of the best young forecasters on this blog. I always pay attention to what he and Drak have to say.

No Doubt.
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Just got back. What a waste of perfectly good blogging time doing something totally unnecessary.....

So did NHC update at 8? What's the skinny?
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Quoting Prgal:
The GFS run is crazy.


Link?
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Quoting Grothar:
If you go to the NOAA site and look at the VISIBLE animation. It shows that the convection jumped right on top of the swirl. You all have to see it. Sorry I can't link, but most of you know where it is. If any of you can link it for the other I would appreciate it.


Link
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting midgulfmom:
Atmoaggie, I'm so sorry and confused.
lol join the club ;)
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Quoting xoverau:


He said earlier that his accent was Haitian, not sure if that means he lives there or not.


He lives in PSL, FL. He would be a good one to take on a chase. He is one of the best young forecasters on this blog. I always pay attention to what he and Drak have to say.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Weird would be if you posted this one and it only made sense today, not yesterday.
>


? lost me..
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Quoting Prgal:
The GFS run is crazy.


18z?
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
aha, makes more sense than the abstract I found there last night, eh? lol
Yes,Thank you. I'm still laughing... Senility setting in..
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722. Prgal
The GFS run is crazy.
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It does have 2 different mid level Lows inside what is left of Erika.... I do have to say when it gets towards the Keys later on this weekend or first of next week. We could see something again from her....Although it will be an open wave after crossing Cuba but Look out down the road....

Taco :0)
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If you go to the NOAA site and look at the VISIBLE animation. It shows that the convection jumped right on top of the swirl. You all have to see it. Sorry I can't link, but most of you know where it is. If any of you can link it for the other I would appreciate it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23672
718. Relix
Quoting jipmg:


may be back up to TS later on.. but will likely weaken again, there is alot of shear ahead


Since it stalled I am watching if it will jog north or something. Rains are mostly gone though, 70% of convection died... it's a dead system really, but it still has that circulation and Erika is just crazy enough to pull out something like that. Oh, and it isn't even DMAX =P
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Quoting midgulfmom:
LMAO...Imagine my surprise when I saw (her) "his" picture on his blog... I'm just a computer "tweeb" ha ha ha. I guese he won't be answering my question now...
it's funny because whenever I see his handle I always think "maggie" and I thought he was a she for a while there..
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Our little vampiress will feed again this eve.
Quoting midgulfmom:
LMAO...Imagine my surprise when I saw (her) "his" picture on his blog... I'm just a computer "tweeb" ha ha ha. I guese he won't be answering my question now...

I just did.
My picture? A her? What?!?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting atmoaggie:

Oh, ok.

Well, such a thing is somewhat rare, but possible for mid-latitude supercells. In TCs it doesn't happen...BUT apparently is possible. Very unlikely, but possible.
So I was a little wrong last night, actually.

It requires very high wind shear, which would usually mean you have no TC left. But apparently is possible under the perfect conditions. I would be surprised if we ever really see such a thing and actually measure it.

A journal article from earlier this year is the only published work on that I have found.
http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2009JAS2963.1&ct=1

CAVEAT: This entire work was the result of modeling.
aha, makes more sense than the abstract I found there last night, eh? lol
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Quoting Tazmanian:




what lol


Taz, I have followed your blogs for years and you have called some shots when nobody agreed with you and you stayed with it and were proven correct. I am not saying she is coming back, just that that little flare-up she is going through right now was not anticipated. I trust your judgement implicitly. What do you think?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23672
Quoting Tazmanian:
this new opera 10.0 RC is way better then 3.5 firefox opera 10.0 RC is vary fast it olny take sacs too lode a page
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


and has more security holes in it that a pound of swiss cheese, no thanks I will stay with firefox. lol


Care to elaborate?

There are no unpatched Secunia advisories affecting this product, when all vendor patches are applied..
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Quoting weathermancer:


"automaggie" LOL!
LMAO...Imagine my surprise when I saw (her) "his" picture on his blog... I'm just a computer "tweeb" ha ha ha. I guese he won't be answering my question now...
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710. jipmg
Quoting Relix:
Whatever remains of Erika seems to have stalled once more and the "COC" is gaining convection. Interesting.


may be back up to TS later on.. but will likely weaken again, there is alot of shear ahead
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Quoting Grothar:


I hate quoting myself. I posted this at around 4:45 this afternoon on post #177. I am not saying she is coming back. But I found a site which showed a possible new center reforming. Come on Tazmanian, you're good and you know it. What do think?




what lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114024
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
lol I was telling them that you had good answers for the whole splitting storm discussion last night.

Oh, ok.

Well, such a thing is somewhat rare, but possible for mid-latitude supercells. In TCs it doesn't happen...BUT apparently is possible. Very unlikely, but possible.
So I was a little wrong last night, actually.

It requires very high wind shear, which would usually mean you have no TC left. But apparently is possible under the perfect conditions. I would be surprised if we ever really see such a thing and actually measure it.

A journal article from earlier this year is the only published work on that I have found.
http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2009JAS2963.1&ct=1

CAVEAT: This entire work was the result of modeling.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
ok now I have to look BRB

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706. Relix
Whatever remains of Erika seems to have stalled once more and the "COC" is gaining convection. Interesting.
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Quoting Grothar:


If you look at the animation is looks like an upper level low is trying to work its way down around 16N 63W. Now, Now everybody. Not wishcasting, just commenting. Erika is probably just on life-support at this time, but she is trying to survive.


I hate quoting myself. I posted this at around 4:45 this afternoon on post #177. I am not saying she is coming back. But I found a site which showed a possible new center reforming. Come on Tazmanian, you're good and you know it. What do think?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23672
Quoting HIEXPRESS:


Yes, and if you are looking for a specific post on a past blog, go to a search engine like Yahoo & type the poster's handle, a search string "a piece of the text you want to find" enclosed in quotation marks - it must be exact if you enclose it in quotes, and add site:wunderground.com The search string should be a few words together that you remember are unique to that post. It might not work with very recent posts, as the web "crawlers" might not have "seen" it yet.


Good tip. Thanks. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting homelesswanderer:


If you go to edit on your menu bar. Go to find on this page and type in atmo's handle you can skip to his posts. :)
Thanks I'll try it. I still have dial up (:p) so it takes a while. I found his blog and asked on there just in case... Computer tweeb here.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Am I being stalked?


Uh oh. Sorry didn't know they were stalkers. Lol.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Sorry don't know how to post link. Its GOES WeST Floater #3
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697. JLPR
Erika refuses to die



LLC firing up
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.